An Ego’s Descending Spiral
I woke up this morning thinking about John F. Kennedy, Jr. I’m not sure what prompted this. I’m not exactly given to thinking about any of the Kennedys, but there it was. In particular, I was thinking about how he died. He was famous, adored (since the picture of him saluting his father’s coffin), rich, married to a beautiful woman, and a Kennedy, a prince in America’s royalty.
Most people, I think, are familiar with the basics: he flew into bad weather with his wife and her sister, and as the FAA put it in the report, he became disoriented and lost control of the plane he was flying. This led to him crashing into Long Island Sound. He’d had some instrument training, but wasn’t instrument-qualified.
Those sorts of accidents are not uncommon, especially among new pilots as Kennedy was. Usually what happens is what pilots call a “graveyard spiral.”
See, aircraft are not a natural environment for us. In particular, our inner ear can’t be trusted, because centrifugal force can make it feel like we’re flying straight and level when we’re actually turning.
Because of this, a “seat of the pants” pilot who has no outside reference can get into a situation like this: the aircraft banks slightly — because of a gust of wind or the torque of the engine or simply because no one can fly absolutely straight and level — and it feels like the plane is still straight and level by the seat of the pants. This is because the centrifugal force of the turn adds just enough to cancel the feeling of a tilt. But when a plane is turning, it loses a little bit of lift and starts to descend. This causes the plane to speed up a bit.
Pilots are taught from the beginning to control their airspeed with the pitch of the plane: pull the nose up, you slow down; push down, you speed up. So our hapless pilot pulls the nose up a little.
The problem is that since he’s turning, that actually causes the turn to tighten. By pulling the nose up, he’s also turning the front of the plane more toward the center of the turn. This causes the plane to lose more lift, to speed up more. Obviously, if the pilot continues to correct, it just gets worse and worse. The aircraft turns more and more tightly and descends more and more rapidly, until one of a very few things happen, all of them unpleasant.
I know someone who had this happen and survived because he came out of the clouds with time to correct, and he described it as one of the most terrifying moments of his life: he kept fighting the airspeed, and losing altitude, and then suddenly he was out of the clouds and the ground wasn’t below him — it was to his left. And very close.
The sad thing about any disorientation accident is that it can be avoided so easily. If you aren’t an instrument pilot, don’t fly into bad conditions. If you see you are flying into bad conditions, turn around. If you are flying and can’t see the horizon, then don’t trust your feelings.
The instruments will tell you what’s happening if you let them. Modern aircraft have an instrument called the “artificial horizon,” but every airplane has a “turn and bank indicator.” Look at those — and believe them, not what you feel.
When it comes down to it, the root cause of these accidents is lack of humility. You must be humble enough to admit when something is beyond your skills.
Humility isn’t something that a prince has much occasion to learn.
We see something parallel happening all the time: people who think they can handle something, and are unwilling to admit — or unwilling to believe — some outside reference.
We had the stimulus, an expenditure of nearly a trillion dollars that was supposed to keep unemployment from reaching eight percent — but we’ve never gone below eight percent since. The quantitative easings. The GM bailout. And now we’re being told that we need more quantitative easing, more spending, new programs … while conditions are actually deteriorating again.
There comes a time when you have to say: “What we’re doing isn’t helping. Have we lost our horizon?” It can be very hard to admit that. It requires a bit of humility, which is very hard for someone like Obama to learn.
John Kennedy Jr. also suffered from another malady.
Too Much Money!
Thurman Munson also died when he crashed his twin engine Jet. And aircraft that was more complex than his skills, and the weather was good when he augered in.
But because both had Loads of Cash, the people who should have told them NO, didn’t.
I detect a bad case of envy. There is not such a thing as too much money, like there isn’t such a thing as too much achievement. I guess Obama’s rhetoric is contagious.
Money and position and good looks can breed arrogance, you know.
JFK Jr. had failed to pass the bar a few times and had a reputation as not extraordinarily bright.
At the time of the plane crash (as I recall one of his legs was in a cast and they were on their way to a wedding) it was generally acknowledged that he had exercised extremely bad judgment flying into known conditions in bad weather without an instrument rating.
I always thought the problem was that JFK,Jr. was too cheap to hire a real pilot and thought he could do it himself, in order to save a few bucks. I have noticed that rich people are among the cheapest people when it comes to a buck.
Munson had two instructors with him in the cockpit and jump seat. He may have had a bit too much confidence, but he certainly wasn’t arrogant.
Nonetheless, time to get the clumsy student pilot out of the cockpit and let a high-time ATP take the controls.
Thurman Munson was at the controls of a twin engine Jet with less than 100 hours experience behind him.
You cannot tell me that anyone who didn’t have the money to buy the jet in the first place would have been able to get into that situation.
….that’s the way I remember the accident. Inexperienced, hindering-cast on leg, being inside weather where he had no business flying…..should never have gotten into the ‘plane with passengers…
Also, ……I love the way the article started out explaining the seat-of-the-pants-forces. I washed out of flight school in 1954 after 16 hours and 33 minutes of dual instruction in the Piper Cub….the “Yellow Peril”, we called it. Was scared, very scared of that feeling of flipping over at the peak of a stall and being nearly inverted…….oh!…oh!…..S**T!
Thanks, Charlie Martin…..very well and truly said. Palms no longer wet.]
Just one little detail — Kennedy’s leg was just out of a cast. That day.
My recollection is that JFK Jr. was flying over water at night under VFR conditions. What “weather”?
Fog, Micha. He flew into a fog bank.
That’s not arrogance – that’s being cocky. Met a whole lot of arrogant people who have the ego of Napoleon and have nothing to show for it.
Having read the report, albeit a few years ago, just a few comments. . . .
1. The weather wasn’t “bad” — it was just hazy, and it was dusk, resulting in “instrumental conditions” — because he couldn’t see any ground references.
2. He had been taking instrument lessons — but had remarked to an acquaintance that the lessons were “tough”.
3. Although not stated in the report, it appeared to me that he was fine — as long as he had his autopilot on. As soon as he had to take controls to set up for landing on the island, he was in way over his head and promptly crashed.
4. Call it arrogance if you wish, but he was such an inexperienced pilot there was no reason at all for any arrogance. I tend to think it was just plain old stupidity.
Haze is probably one of the worst conditions of visibility — not zero like dense fog where there would be no question of staying put — but looking ok enough to “give it a look and see what happens”. As a mariner of 25+ years I can tell you that mentality has gotten people into more trouble than anything else. Arrogance and overconfidence go hand in hand. And lo-time pilots not rated on instruments, should have the sense to listen to their betters and learn. There were rated pilots that night who chose to stay on the ground. He wasn’t that bright.
>>failed the bar a few times…
…hardly proof of “stupidity” (many fail the exam), but perhaps he should have tried to answer the questions instead of writing “I’m a Kennedy” on the exam and handing it in…
Many fail the bar… once. Most people are trying to get away with as little prep as possible while still passing, and some misjudge the margin of error.
Failing the bar twice (and actually he failed it three times) means you’re a bit dim.
‘There is not such a thing as too much money.’
Unfortunately, that turns out not to be the case,
as is demonstrated by spending patterns in the US
since the end of WWII. The situation is analogous
to that of a horse who gets into a barrel of oats;
It will eat until it founders, and then die.
Then You’ve Never been through flight school.
Most of us Rent our aircraft while getting our Private, then Instrument, then Commercial rating and therefore have the bennefit of a Gatekeeper to look over our shoulder during that period when we have enough skills to do it, but not enough experience to judge it.
The two examples of Thurman Munson and JFK Jr. had the money to Buy thier own aircraft and bypass that situation. While someone will without hesitation tell you that you cannot rent an aircraft today because conditions are deteriorating too quickly for your ability, when you own the airplane (and it is generally a Highly Complex aircraft, Like a Beach Debonaire or in Munson’s case a Cesna Citation, not a Cesna 172 or a Cherokee 140) no one is there to tell you you’re pushing the envelope too far today.
So if you were to read what I said, and read it in context you would have understood the meaning was to say “Too Much Money for their own good,” rather than leaping to an incorrect conclusion.
Could it be that the phrase you were looking for is they had more money than sense? Enough money to buy their way into trouble but not enough sense to realize it and get themselves out again.
In this case and in ones like it, the pilot has more money than flying ability.
And why would I envy the fact that I did have the ability to kill myself in 1979?
Stupid is as stupid does – the Occum’s Razor of or time. You cannot fix stupid. JFK Jr took bar, what, 6 times before “passing”. Obama is Forrest Gump!
He took the Bar exam twice and passed it on his 3d attempt. He worked in the public prosecutor’s office in Manhattan for about four years before trying his hand at magazine publishing.
JFK Jr. had a reputation for being fairly polite and honorable and most unlike the children of his Uncle Robert, who are the source of the majority of tales of ill-behavior which adhere to the 3d generation of Kennedys. (David Horowitz and Peter Collier wrote a history of the Kennedy clan a generation ago and one of their contentions was that Jacqueline Onassis, Sargeant Shriver, and Eunice Shriver had removed their children from the more general family circle for their protection). I am not sure why that other fellow thought JFK Jr. had got the idea that he merited admission to the Bar without the examination. (Caroline Kennedy passed the Bar examination on her 1st attempt).
I am also not exactly sure why the fact that he misjudged the situation he was in in 1999 means he was a globally arrogant individual.
Maybe but maybe not. Its come up before with my friends in conversation that so many rich famous people die in accidents. None of us are the envious types but it was a pattern (more so in the past). We concluded money enables people to do more dangerous things than any of us did that often. Flying, boating, skiing, climbing, fast cars, make more enemies, et cetera… Some of us do some of those; but not as many or as much…
I think a more correct saying about ‘too much money’ is ‘too much unearned money is destructive.’ Kennedy, all of them, did not go into business to earn money. They and John, in particular, was just doing what he was doing on a ‘hoot’.
There are way too many examples of people who didn’t have a ‘pot to piss in’ who won millions of $$$$’s and lost it all. They lost their families, respect, bearings and mostly they lost their minds. ‘Unearned money with unearned respect’ makes people crazy.
Doctors used to be notorious for buying more plane than they could fly. I’m one but don’t fly. The wisest ones I know are extra careful. I know a couple of famous and terrific docs who succumbed to this situation. One was the pioneer of kidney transplants.
John Kennedy Jr didn’t fly into bad weather. He just took off too late in the day because his wife was late after getting her toenails painted. He could have hired an instrument qualified pilot but went beyond his skills as the day grew dark. The horizon disappeared into dusk.
No, the weather was bad too, with a 12,000 ft ceiling, 10 miles visibility or less and no visible horizon. Still officially VFR when he took off. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy,_Jr._plane_crash#Haze_and_visibility
There’s an old joke in aviation. About a Dr. and a retired airline Capt. together in a private plane being an accident waiting to happen.
Back in the 1970s, Burt Rutan used to call Beech Bonanzas “Forked Tailed Doctor Killers.”
When I was taking my instruction back in the 70′s the I remember thinking what a Racket the Flight School had going.
My instructior would let me even go Dual with him in the Beachcraft Debonair (a Bonanza with a Tail and Elevator) until I’d put in at least 100 hours and 150 landings in the Cesna 172.
I thought he was padding the account right up until my first landing in the Debonair.
Missing NOT…
The need an Edit Feature.
My instructior would Not let me even go Dual with him in the Beachcraft Debonair
So, now you get to decide who has too much money, or just the right amount. Such stupidity!
The Stupidity is all yours engaging your opinions before you know of whence you speak.
But, but, “you can never have too much money or be too thin”.
Interesting. That’s a likely explanation for the fatal crash. I think it’s also possible that he was a better pilot than you say, but that conditions were very tough that day. Yes, he could have turned around, but it’s very much like men and asking directions. Most prefer to get lost.
He wasn’t a good enough pilot to say “this is too much for me.”
I guess at some level he was aware of his deficits but ego trumped that. I remember when I wrote a manual for “Chuck Yeager Flight Simulator” way-back-when – I crashed the plane every single time..I cam still remember Yeager’s recorded voice announcing impending doom, but it made no difference.
To this day one of my favorite flight sims. The improved processing power and graphics never trumped the “feel” of that sim. I might not feel the same way if I could ever find it and run it again… but my memories of that game bring a smile to my face.
He apparently wasn’t a good enough pilot to know how to turn on his autopilot. His plane was well equipped and had a good autopilot. He could’ve used it and monitored the approach but didn’t. A good pilot uses all of his tools to be a safer pilot. An approach at night over water in poor visibility is not an easy thing but he choose to do it. He choose poorly.
It was even worse than that. He flew out on the autopilot and disengaged it about a minute before the crash. All he had to do is re-engage Otto and he could have been another worthless Kennedy in office by now.
As far as oBAMA is concerned, the muddle East will be the final straw. First he blows all the gains in Iraq (where Bagdad was safer than Chicago), then hamstrung the effort in Afganistan by announcing a withdrawl before it was stable. Now the lies about the attack that killed 4 Americans.
January 20 can not come fast enough.
You make sense. If logic meant anything to the electorate do you think Obama would have been in office now?
I think Joseph P. Kennedy had about 28 grand-children of which five have run for public office. Two of the five proved troublesome in various ways but they were troublesome individuals before they were in public office, which JFK Jr. was not. JFK Jr. was 38 years old at the time of his death and if anything had been moving farther away from the world of electoral politics in his occupational choices.
I’m not sure if it’s true of NTSB mishap investigations, but in Naval Aviation mishap investigations, the weather is NEVER a causal factor. Flying into conditions you or the aircraft were incapable of dealing with is what causes the mishap. Lots of factors can feed into that (fight with the wife, fast-moving warm front, etc.), but it is the pilot’s responsibility to factor in those things and respond appropriately (to include not flying, diverting, etc.).
I remember that accident and I thought at the time another factor leading to the crash was probably the two passengers yammering at him. Unless you have had some experience with instruments under stressful conditions [not just a simulator] it can be very hard to get your eyes and mind into the instrument panel and read it as a whole. Passengers can be a terrible distraction. In fact they may have pressed him to fly into conditions he would have avoided if alone. I imagine Obama is finding himself in much the same situation just now. Hyper-confident, hyper-incompetent, and unable to read the signs of trouble. Unless, of course, he is deliberately trying to crash America, which I can’t really rule out just now.
Michelle and Valerie Jarrett yammering at Obama to press ahead, but there’s not much satisfaction in pointing this out when it’s the rest of us in the back being taken on the same ride, slowly at first, then more rapidly, with the “ground” coming up at us from the “left” . . .
Priceless!
There’s no doubt in my mind, depending on whose opinions you follow. I haven’t seen Dinesh’s movie or read “The Roots of Obama’s Rage” but I’ve certainly read reviews and columns. From the various accounts and opinions of those who have taken the time to study his background there’s no doubt in my mind…
It’s Cloward-Piven all the way. Obama was raised and trained all his life from childhood onward by hard-core radicals. He was trained to believe that America is an evil racist, sexist, colonial, imperialist cancer on humanity. America slaughtered the Indians, enslaved the Africans, dominated the Mexicans, exploits the 3rd World, devours resources and wages war on innocent Muslims. Obama’s mission is to take America down any way he can and after our system collapses a beautiful, socialist utopia will arise phoenixlike from the ashes. With him and his in charge, of course. Or maybe not, the important thing is that America is taken down hard. Because we’re evil people and we deserve it. I really don’t believe Obama’s juvenile thinking goes any farther than this: Do as much damage as you can while smiling and giving soaring speeches. Most liberals probably go along with this kind of thinking, they just don’t bother to noodle it through all the way and ask themselves what will happen to them personally? How many of them still think that Obama is actually trying to make things better? I have no idea. Unfortunately for them, the vast majority will not be magically immune to the suffering that follows. Perhaps enough of them have figured this out to make a difference in November. The polls are utterly worthless, we will just have to see.
You certainly do not have to be a genius or even “competent” to make messes and break things. As others have said; Obama is not in over his head, he knows exactly what he’s doing. I only wish some prominent politicians had the guts to stand up and call him on it. Everyone is too fearful of following his actions to their logical conclusion and stating it out loud.
I have a friend whom I no longer speak with. He’s a very credentialed physicist on the west coast. He possesses a doctorate and I’m sure is quite bright but has never had a work-a-day job in his life.
Because of his high credentials, he seems to have gotten the idea that he could somehow educate me on how to cure my diabetes. Various dietary supplements were suggested as well as some other gobbledygook that made no sense to me.
I addressed this to my doctor, an endocrinologist who I respect and who understands the disease thoroughly. After explaining this guy’s approach, my doctor simply said, “I have some interesting ideas on how to get to Mars; Do you think he’d read them?”. Of course he was being sarcastic and we both smiled.
Egoists and intellect are dangerous bedfellows. Being smart in a particular area doesn’t guarantee expertise in another. There is the potential that the intellectual can understand a great deal more than the pedestrian-minded but that still doesn’t make them an expert. Or, even a proficient technician.
And it happens on all levels of the intellectual spectrum. The number of times I’ve been in a break-room where the general office populace was discussing some method of dealing with this issue or that and thinking themselves completely correct. When the subject of aviation was discussed, something I know a little about, the amount of misconception and straight out mythology is staggering. But people like to talk as if they know what they’re talking about.
This is Obama who believes if you say anything with a straight face and direct tones and some $5 words, the listener will believe you. If our education system has really done that much damage then we’re in trouble as I see it all the time. There are lots of bullsh*tters out there. But what’s worse are people who know a lot about one thing who think they therefore know a lot about a lot of things.
Most of us know a little about a lot of things and generally more about one particular thing, such as our own job. It has often been reported that the incredibly gifted can be flummoxed by the TV remote or how to open a pack of gum.
Then, on the other side, where the “blue-collar” crowd takes delight in the ignorance of the clearly more intelligent individual and equates it to “stupidity”. Yet, if the very bright person has never done or been exposed to a certain task, it’s not stupidity but ignorance. Thus, the bright person can avoid displays of arrogance simply by saying, “I don’t know how to do this, can you show me?” and then, once known, can do it, without help and eventually even become superior at the task. (ask me how I know)
Arrogance works against the human in all cases.
P Jay, you make a point that needs constant repetition: There is a difference between “stupidity” — the inability to learn — and “ignorance” — haven’t yet learned. There are not many truly stupid people in this world, but everyone is “ignorant” on most subjects. This is the reason that central economic planning will always be hugely inferior to the operation of free markets. On the other hand, it is possible that a person who appears ignorant is really just slyly malevolent. He knows what he’s doing, and he’s doing it on purpose. If we concede President Obama’s intelligence and competence, then it’s hard not to conclude that his ultimate aim is to cut America down to size.
Yep –as any detective will tell you, the first thing a white-collar will say when he is arrested is, “Okay, I’ll have to admit it, I’m not a very good businessman.”
While Obama may be “book smart”, he shows no sign of being able to learn from failure. He keeps advocating economic policies that have failed countless times in the past. To me, that proves he isn’t intelligent. Intelligence requires the ability to learn from experience. Wisdom is learning from the failures of others. Obama most definitely is not wise.
The reason Cloward-Piven cannot ultimately succeed in the US is simply too much Dunning-Kruger on the Left to overcome all the Smith and Wesson on the right.
Is that a new salad dressing?
Not true. Reporting done at the time indicated that his wife had told friends she did not trust him behind the controls and also that she had been reluctant to fly that night. Supposedly her sister persuaded her to make the trip.
Here’s you a bit more paradox for the tragedy. Pride, or narcissism, will have you believe you are being humble even after you’ve augered in. No matter what happens in November, Obama will be convinced in his own mind that he has had no hand in the economy or disastrous foreign policy. It was somebody or something else, and we will be privileged to hear that for years to come in speeches. Obama’s kind of pride is a hell that cannot be escaped without a complete change of identity from the inside.
People want to counter the pride, or even ego, argument with the fact that you have to be tremendously self confident or prideful to be President. Have all the self confidence you want, but be experienced in recognising when your way isn’t working, taking correction and/or responsibility and making changes to your own plans to make the enterprise (in this case, our nation’s trajectory) come out much better. Even Clinton knew how to do that and that’s why the Democrats hope against hope that some of his example will rub off on Obama. It won’t.
You are right, Obama is not the kind of man to ever admit he made a mistake because since “I am the one” I don’t make mistakes. Why must the majority of people still follow a prideful narcissist allowing him to take the country and all of us spinning until we crash into the ground and that surely seems to be his plan of action. Wake up people you can right the plane in November!
Whadda you mean? I’m a Harvard (insert Ivy League school name) Lawyer. I can fly the United States.
Hubris: Overweening Pride.
The Greek Gods warned about this. Unfortunately, the Icarus in the White House still believes he can fly up and touch the sun, and return, unscathed.
Hubris? Yep. But it’s Nemisis who collects the dues and hands out your “come-uppance”.
“Humility isn’t something that a prince has much occasion to learn.”
Mr. Martin, I always like your stuff, and this piece, especially the flight explanation, was superb.
But, I have to disagree with the above statement.
Life affords everyone the opportunity to learn humility. It is just that some people are unwilling and choose not to.
Unfortunately, sometimes we don’t survive the lesson.
According to the NTSB report that was published in Flying magazine (Something they’ve done for decades, not just because it was a Kennedy), JFK Jr. took off already knowing the weather was below minimums for VFR (Visual Flight Rules), being both near nightfall and in inclement weather (haze and reduced visibility).
He was also flying a relatively high-performance aircraft, the Piper PA-32R Saratoga, which is notably unforgiving of inattentive or sloppy handling. (Put simply, if you’re not paying attention, it descend-spirals pretty quickly due to sheer power.)
While he had gone through ab initio instrument training, he was not instrument (IFR) qualified.
In short, he should have stayed on the ground that evening.
But being a Kennedy, he apparently defaulted to the family SOP going back to Old Joe; I’m important, so whatever I want to do will work. Not quite as bad as Uncle Ted’s Don’t you understand that I Am God? act, but in terms of clusterf**k potential, close enough for all practical purposes.
When you are the pilot of an aircraft, you’re not Lt. Sulu; you’re Captain Kirk. Whatever happens is on you.
And that responsibility starts a long time before you get cleared for takeoff, release the brakes, and advance the throttle.
Some people never quite get it, and try to do something they’re not ready for, the plane isn’t designed for, or both. The result was once summed up by Bill Whittle as follows;
Or, if you prefer John Ringo’s version;
Either way, the result is generally what happened here.
Physics and aerodynamics don’t care who you are. All they care about is whether or not you obey their laws.
And don’t bother petitioning Congress to get them changed. That’s considerably above their pay grade, and has been for the last four and a half billion years or so.
For an extract of the NTSB report, see;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy,_Jr._plane_crash
clear ether
eon
Read the article you linked. The conditions were VFR–not IFR–so he could legally fly looking out the cockpit.
In fact, there were a lot of other planes in the air doing just that.
However, the conditions were marginal and with night coming on it was imprudent to take off under marginal VFR conditions.
Almost everyone who has flown has pushed a little too hard at some time or other and found himself in conditions changing for the worse and getting very frightening. Usually, if you don’t let fear cause a brain whiteout by focusing hard on what you can manage–the instruments and the plane–rather than what you can’t manage outside the plane, you can survive. In marginal VFR conditions there may often be a twilight zone where you really should let go of VFR despite some exterior visibility and focus much harder inside on the instruments. But fear keeps dragging your mind back to the world outside the window. It’s a setup for panic if you don’t recognize it and rein in your rising fear.
“VFR Marginal” and “VFR” are two distinctly different things, as my flight instructor very carefully explained to me about thirty-five years ago. Encroaching darkness and haze are marginal. He should have stayed on the ground.
Period.
Just because something is technically “legal” under the rules, doesn’t necessarily make it smart. A pilot owes it to his passengers to be smart, not legalistic.
cheers
eon
Ditto!
Evidently it will come as a surprise to you that VFR and IFR are legal terms. They derive from the FAR. ‘Marginal’ VFR is still VFR. It means that as a matter of law a licensed pilot who is not IFR certified can legally fly under Visual Flight Rules.
Whether a pilot should be in the air depends on many things besides visibility. Turbulence, rapidly changing conditions, icing, condition of the plane and pilot experience come to mind. There are many VFR conditions that should be avoided if you want to live, never mind what is legal.
Your original post referred to the legal standards by saying, incorrectly, that conditions were IFR. They were VFR but it was poor judgment on Kennedy’s part to fly that plane with those passengers into those conditions whether it was legal or not.
I still suspect [but can never know] that he would not have made the flight but for pressure from his passengers and the draw of the social occasion.
One old and apt saying is that a superior pilot is one who uses his superior judgment to avoid getting into situations where he needs his superior skills.
Almost all pilots can think of at least one time when they wished they had remembered that.
One of the dangers of flying over water at night is that, even in good visibility, it can be difficult to distinguish the horizon. The water appears black and so does the sky. When the visibility is reduced, even if still within VFR limits, then the challenge is much greater. From memory, Kennedy was flying in just those conditions (reduced visibility at night over water). Not a good combination for a non-instrument rated pilot. It might’ve been legal but it was not a good idea as events proved. Had he used his autopilot properly, the flight likely would’ve been a non-event. He didn’t and he died. Even worse, he killed his passengers.
The airplane crash comparison through a descending spiral and the actual financial-economic situation is quite a good one. I would say we are between a dead end road and turning back is impossible. Crash expected, some hot air will lift the financial numbers for a time, though the centrifugal downward forces are stronger than a miracle allows.
Interesting, well-written piece, Charlie.
I am quite fearful of the consequences of further devaluation of the dollar. I already shop at thrift stores, have grocery shopping down to a frugal art, we are a one car family (it is a necessity where we live), consolidate errands to save gas, and usually seek out low cost or free entertainment to name a few things. I am afraid that this third round of quantitative easing is going to permanantly erode the American standard of living. When people complain about high gas prices, I try to explain to them that it is not the cost of the gas that has changed, rather the buying power of the dollar has been manipulated downward. It makes you wonder who’s interests the Fed really cares about, it most certainly is not average Joe’s.
That of course, won’t stop Bill O’Reilly from his 1970′s-style ritual flogging of those dirty oil companies on a nightly basis…
Yes! Indeed!
Re:
…..”When people complain about high gas prices, I try to explain to them that it is not the cost of the gas that has changed, rather the buying power of the dollar has been manipulated downward.”
Us-geriatrics-folks of a certain age recall when a new Cadillac cost ……$2,ooo.oo, that’s not a typo….it’s…..two thousand dollars.
I suppose one of their motivations of engineered inflation is to move people into ever higher tax brackets. A person making say $50k per year may have at one time been able to afford 5 necessity “apples” and 5 luxury “oranges”, but now the person making $50k per year can only afford 4 necessity “apples” (they had to give up health insurance lets say that was necessity apple #5) and 0 luxury “oranges”; thanks to inflation they are now pushed into the “rich” mans tax bracket, they don’t qualify for any assistance, and after all the math is said and done they have less expendible income than a single mom with benefits.
I keep telling my adult children stories about “gas wars” and buying my first new car, a Mustang convertible, for $3,050. in 1968. In spite of all that, three of them voted for Obama. You can lead a horse to water…
The rest of the saying (updated) “but you can’t make him drink…but you can damn well make sure he’s thirsty when he gets there”
I’ve personalized the Hores/Water adage into: You can lead a horse to water, but until you are in a legal framework that permits you to snap his forelegs and jam his head under the surface, you cannot make him drink.
We see something parallel happening all the time: people who think they can handle something, and are unwilling to admit — or unwilling to believe — some outside reference.
If Obama had any sense of humility OR honor, he’d acknowledge he’s in way over his head and step down.
I’d be proud of him if he did that. For the first time in my adult life.
Or…in the words of GWB
One doesn’t necessarily have to be unqualified to fall victim to ego’s descending spiral. You can be competent, having done it a hundred times but sometimes things just don’t line up. But ego causes you to try to correct on the fly to avoid admitting it just isn’t working. Same descending spiral can take hold of you. Even more unfortunate, because maturity and experience teach you that sometimes, no matter how simple the exercise, you just have to stop, let the dust settle, then start over.
But many people’s ego won’t let them admit, not mistake but rather simply things just aren’t lining up. Harshest, but most mature, acceptance of all is that it is better to turn it over to someone else….this time. The peanut gallery will harangue you for failure but if you’ve even managed people who have to do dangerous things, you know that knowing when to stop is the greatest skill of all. And now we are back to Clint Eastwood “A man’s got to know his limitations.”
Paul Krugman comes to mind. He is lacking entirely in humility. He is the all seeing eye god, he is not to be questioned, ever!
Paul Krugman comes to mind. He is entirely lacking in humility. He is the all knowing all seeing eye god. He is not to be questioned, ever! Kathleen Sebelius too. Hell, most leftists have no humility. They are always right, because they are so smart. The are entitled to their smarty pants identity because well they are liberals and liberals are smart. Because I said so. Shut up.
I’m embarrassed when I speak to (most) Leftists/Liberals face to face.
The dogmatism, the fidelity to a fixed, lockstep set of narratives, is so apparent, the impossibility of penetrating the fog is so acute, I have to avert my eyes.
Paul Krugman is not well.
His idea of intellectual debate is “Look! Homegrown terrorist!” How dare anyone debate economics, they must be an eeeevil tea party terrorist. People who use words to debate things…. RUN…. so scary!
A couple of days after the accident a client told me he suspected JFK Jr had become confused and flew the plane into the ground because as an inexperienced pilot my client had almost done the same. Like your friend, he had came out of the cloud cover with just enough time to correct. My client was a very bright, creative and competitive guy used to besting every situation. While he gave up flying soon thereafter he said he never forgot the lesson.
“We had the stimulus, an expenditure of nearly a trillion dollars that was supposed to keep unemployment from reaching eight percent — but we’ve never gone below eight percent since. The quantitative easings. The GM bailout. And now we’re being told that we need more quantitative easing, more spending, new programs … while conditions are actually deteriorating again.”
I hope Romney repeats this again and again throughout the debates. People have to remember that not only is Obama out of ideas, but the few ideas he DOES have are really bad ones. Worse, Obama has no ability to admit that what he’s doing doesn’t work. He keeps doubling down on the same failed policies until we end up like Greece. I really hope the American people see and understand this. We don’t have much time left as a nation before we go totally bankrupt. This really is a make or break election, and if Obama is (God forbid) re-elected, I can’t even begin to imagine how bad the economy will be next year. And it WILL be bad.
“What we’re doing isn’t helping. Have we lost our horizon?”
One has to ask honestly whether obama and the leftist leadership intended to “help.” Is their “horizon” the same horizon the rest of us see?
If obama, reed, pelosi et al are flying by a different set of parameters, it is we who are trusting our inner ears and ignoring our instruments.
Most of the folks I know who voted for obama did so primarily to make themselves feel good. They didn’t care or understand what the instruments showed; they paid attention only to what their inner ear told them was a really wonderful and hip thing to do.
This is hubris too. In the world of the 21st century, all Americans are rich kids, we’re all children of wealth and privilege. Have more than half of us lost the ability or the will to admit our mistake? I guess we’ll see in November.
A very good argument can be made for the case that the decline of America is really the point of all these exercises in humility the Egotist-In-Chief imposes on we the people.
Obama’s not always obscured insistence that America is the problem in the world, that America is just one among the community of nations, that American power needs to be curtailed under his “wise” stewardship is pretty obvious and lies at the basis for the Apology Tour that began in ’09.
He cannot acknowledge that it was a well planned in advance attack that led to murder and embassy trashing in Benghazi last week, very possibly led by a guy who had been sprung from Guantanamo and released to Libya.
Obama’s insistence on the film and making his surrogates insist on the film over 10 days is a sharp indicator of his character, or lack thereof.
It all started to go wrong when someone in the government said to the first businessman, “I’d like to make a suggestion…”.
This is an interesting article, thanks for writing, especially the technical aspects of the ‘accident’. I guess I’m a little skeptical regarding that point…my tinfoil hat keeps slipping over my nose.
Imagine a popular JFK Jr. standing behind the podium at the 2008 Democrat convention, and all the leg tingles and pant leg creases and ‘cool’ that would have gushed forth from the media. Handsome, young, eloquent, poised, connected with an exotic family having an interesting history…toss in a style conscious, attractive wife smiling at his side, both eager to lead the nation, and the nation eager to let them.
But in an entirely different direction than the one we’re headeddddd…opps…
darn tinfoil hat.
Brack Obama is president today because John F. Kennedy, Jr. was killed in
an airplane crash.
Just like the Vietnam war dragged on ten years because Lee Harvey Oswald
killed the man who was going to bring all the troops home right after his
reelection.
And Lincoln was killed because his army major escourt was sitting on the
wrong side of him, thereby not stopping Boothe from aiming his Derringer
at the back of Lincoln’s head.
History is literally filled with curiosities like this.
Jim Whittaker
Hemet, CA
Butterfly Effect?
And Reagan came within a quarter-inch of dying in the back of his limo on that day in March. I certainly agree.
But how is JFK jr’s crash related to Obama being president? Surely you don’t see JFK jr as one who would be in his stead. J-jr didn’t seem to express a hint of interest in public office, and deep down, could be forgiven for thinking that to do so would put him at peril of his life. What’s the connection?
I think The Borg have a closer connection to Obama being president, and we all know, or should know, where The Borg came into the picture.
You are correct, Obama is President because of a Star Trek Borg. Jeri Ryan divorced her husband, Senator from Illinois and Barry used personal info to get the seat. The rest is like watching Rome burn.
…a lesson learned more often than history reports, because the learners don’t write the history –the teachers do.
Also, Lincoln’s body guard was drinking in a saloon next door to the theater instead of doing his job.
I thought the crash was because Jr. was prepping to run for the seat Hillary coveted?
Odd how Ted’s brothers also died, leaving him in charge of one of the most powerful mafias, and positions, in America- and the world. Call it a marraige of the Boston and Little Rock crime families.
I thought the author was going to write about Obama.
Tony Soprano isn’t an economist or a history professor.
He can, however, break their legs.
Get any answer he wants.
Regarding JFK, Jr.’s, and his wife’s last flight, I have always wondered if a certain amount of nagging was involved. And, of course, a measure of male ego.
Mrs. JFK, Jr.: What do you mean we can’t fly to Martha’s Vineyard today?
JFK, Jr.: The weather forecast is bad. I am not licensed to fly in such conditions. I do not have an instrument rating. I can only fly under visual flight rules. Besides, we can drive part way instead, and take the ferry across to the island.
Mrs. JFK, Jr.: If we do that, we will miss the celebrations tonight.
JFK, Jr.: But we will be there, safely, at the wedding tomorrow.
Mrs. JFK, Jr.: Safety isn’t the issue. You are just chicken!
JFK, Jr.: (I’ll show her. I am a man. I am not a coward.) Get in. Fasten your seatbelt.
With respect to Obama, I wonder how strong Michelle’s influence is, and whether they have similar conversations such as imagined above. For that matter, I wonder what sort of interactions Obama has with Valerie Jarrett along these same lines.
Nagging…and too much advice and bickering while he was flying. That’s what I thought too.
How convenient to blame Carolyn Bessett for the accident. Jr. was the pilot. It is all on him, not his passengers.
I had a fiance once who would never take no for an answer (became wife 1). Her birthday, flying at night to Tahoe for dinner, twin engine aircraft. One engine became rough, I returned. She was very upset with me. Turns out, the engine would have quit. On his next flight with that plane, after fixing the one engine, my partner had the opposite engine quit while over the Sierras! But I know what you mean about nagging females. I just never let it affect my flying judgement.
Replying to Sally:
My emphasis was the interaction between a wife’s nagging and a husband’s ego which may have occurred. As a legal matter, JFK, Jr. had no business flying beyond the limits of his licensure, no matter what pressures he was under.
As an interpersonal matter, representative of male-female interactions, one wonders why a male cannot stand the, shall we say, constructive criticism of his wife—but will readily obey the commands of the female voice of a dash mounted GPS device or his smart phone.
The reporting done at the time found multiple witnesses that testified that Carolyn Bessette Kennedy was anything but pleased with her husband’s hobby and quite reluctant to climb into a plane piloted by him.
at the time the kennedy family was using surrogates to place the blame on Carolyn being late and that’s why they took off late. Just like the Kennedy’s to place blame on others instead of on the one who flew the plane.
In the sequence of events she may actually have been late. People often are. If you are asked to relate the sequence of events, why does doing so constitute an accusation?
My first, prurient, thought when I heard about this accident was that John-John was, indeed distracted by his wife. I’ve never heard anything to lend that any credence (and it seems REALLY unlikely as they entere the terminal phase of a marginal weather flight), but it’s still my first thought. Sue me.
I had a friend and coworker who beat a deadly blood cancer after a five year battle, then went the motorcycle and flying lessons route to celebrate his victory. Only days after I hired him onto my project to help me through some unfamiliar tasks, he crashed a twin engine airplane into the Jersey pines while practicing night landings and died. Human beings are susceptible to delusions of invulnerability when they make it through major crises without acknowledging either the grace of God or even the hand of luck.
There are no old, bold pilots.
I take it you’ve never heard of Bob Hoover.
I thought it was pretty obvious that JFK,Jr., never intended to pursue a real career in any profession worthy of the name when he dabbled in amateur theater with a sort-of hope to make it his life’s work. All his jobs were sinecures except the publishing job, and that proved to be an unsustainable bad idea. He was born a lazy rich kid without direction except the inevitable politics, where no one need ever prove capable at anything but spending other peoples’ money.
He was a public prosecutor in Manhattan. That is not generally a sinecure. It is doubtful he was a particularly skilled attorney, but half the people in any profession are below the median. They earn a living. Prior to that, he was in the apparat of a foundation in New York. He may or may not have had much work to do in that position and the foundation in question may or may not have had much seriousness of purpose. As a rule, you would have had to work in that office to have a clear sense of either his assignments or work habits. If you did not (and very few people did), why make assumptions? It’s stupid and malicious. As for what he ‘intended’ to do, why pretend to get inside the head of someone you did not know?
Many Liberals are simply congenitally unable to believe in facts instead of their “feelings”.
I am sure you can find such people among soi-disant liberals. Now read some of the nonsense in the commentary above (from individuals I would wager were Republicans).
Charlie Martin – I thought your description of the spiral, and your sobering metaphor were GREAT. Thanks. I’ve heard this spiral described before, but you efficient blow by blow, the physics of it, had me visualizing it vividly for the first time.
Thanks!
I was waiting for this to turn into an object lesson about Obambam. There’s nobody less qualified but more ego-maniacal than Barack Hussein Obama. He’s utterly out of his depth, in good weather or bad, and he’s taking the U.S.A. into a death spiral. The more he holds tight to his rainbows-and-unicorns myths, the more deadly the downward spiral becomes.
As for JFK Jr.’s horrendous accident: I thought the problem was that it had got dark and he had no experience, or very little, piloting with instruments. I suspect that a certain cockiness borne of having so much money that nothing seemed insurmountable was to blame for his thinking he could pilot that plane to Hyannisport. Perhaps like Oblahblah, who was going to slow down the rise of the oceans, John-John thought he could slow down the sinking of the sun and get to, if not the church, the wedding rehearsal on time.
However it happened, it must have been a horrifying few minutes for him, his wife, and her sister just before they slammed into the ocean. Just thinking about it makes me shudder.
Okay, I’m curious here. PJ had a format change recently. When you read this, did you think the last paragraph was
or
Yours is the second comment to mention you thought it would make a point about Obama. I’m suspicious the format change has tricked people into not seeing the “next page” link.
I suspect you nailed it here. I don’t know about others, but I find the new format difficult. We can no longer tell through a short blurb under “PJ Columnists” what the various writers’ articles are about, which strikes me as an impediment. Especially on a mobile device like an iPad on a data plan, hitting unknown links to articles which may or may not be of interest is in iteself not too interesting. Per your surmise, “next page” links are confusing to some, and are huge data hogs as the pages re-load from scratch each time, doubling or tripling downloads and taking huge amounts of wasted time… In an attempt to optimise, something has definitely been lost. On the extreme right of the main page, huge swaths of real estate are didicated to crawls that don’t even crawl. One or two headings isn’t sufficient IMO. Finally, I really miss Instapundit’s long and constantly updated crawl – a type of mini-Drudge which kept me checking the site throughout the day… Sudddenly the site seems a bit static, a bit obscure, and certainly less informative at-a-glance compared to the previous incarnation. That’s one reader’s opinion, anyway. (but hey, I only did some of the world’s most famous movie and trailer titles, and many of the motion graphics you saw on TV for 20 years… so what do I know :0)
Thanks. I’ll see that the editors see this comment.
My apologies, Mr. Martin. I didn’t notice the “Page 1 of 2 Next” rubric at the bottom of the page. My bad. (Larger letters and numbers might help!)
It was just too perfect an analogy not to proceed to the situation Americans find themselves in with the present navel-gazing, utterly self-absorbed POTUS.
I’ll be more careful next time to read the whole article. And, BTW, great article! Exquisite analogy.
The “Page 1 of 2″ “Next>” “View as single page” at the bottom right of the page usually give me a hint that the end of the first page is not the end of the article.
But maybe that’s just me.
Great piece, Charlie!
Hyannisport is on the Cape, not on the Vineyard. If he had been flying there, maybe the lights on the mainland would have helped him keep his horizon? (Not a pilot, just a native Massachusettsan born near Hyannis.)
Just the same, Obama has our country in a nosedive that I pray G-d lets us get out of somehow. (In the meantime, I’m stocking up on necessities just in case.)
re the above ‘sisters/nagging/distracting’ theory, could one say, “They bored into the Sound”?
And our instruments are telling us we’re not level and we could crash. Will the electorate trust the instruments and do a course correction? I certainly hope so.
I wouldn’t be too hard of JFK Jr. Vertigo has killed far more experienced and better pilots than he. As pilots, we have an intense curiosity about aircraft accidents. Some people mistake it for a morbid curiosity. I’ve buried too many good friends who were far better pilots than I. The obsessive curiosity is to know and understand the decision-making process that led them to the smoking hole in the ground. (‘There but for the grace of God go I’. ) By knowing and understanding, we hope to avoid walking down the same path.
Once upon a time, I was helping clean out the hangar of a newly-deceased friend. His wife and three-year old son were there. The boy needed something to distract him so I got out a box bucking bars (steel blocks used to install rivets) and he and I proceeded to play with blocks there on the hangar floor. I looked at that little man and thought of my own 5-year-old son. Flying brought me great joy but the thought of my son growing up without a daddy brought me even greater sorrow. Right then and there I vowed that my son would not grow up without a daddy. Not long after that I sold my airplane and put away my pilots license for good.
We don’t need to be too hard on the guy. After all, had he lived something else might have killed him, like “flying” his car into the Chappaquiddick.
Another way of writing this story is to point out that the reason the aristocracy all sit a good horse is they have teachers who won’t lie to them. Ultimately the horse teaches the rider: if the rider isn’t paying attention they aren’t a rider for long as the horse won’t put up with nonsense and stupidity.
The main reason I voted for McCain, warts and all, and not 0bama is their history of failure. McCain had dealt with some failure and managed to recover. I didn’t see any history or hint of failure in 0bama’s past. How would we know he could recover?
Regarding all the stuff about JFK Jr.’s crash: Is there supposed to be something new here?
You devoted more than 600 words to establishing what was long since established: Junior was operating beyond his competence and died because of chain of obvious pilot errors.
You then paste on a 127-word Band-Aid about Obama’s lack of competence, which has been even more clearly demonstrated by his disastrous presidency.
I can’t disagree with anything you say here. But why spend more than 700 words arguing for the obvious?
because it’s what I wanted to say.
…because a death spiral is a death spiral because by the time you’re sure you’re IN one, it’s too late to pull out?
…and if the American dreamboat can accidentally ambush himself, so can the American Dream?
But … But … He was handsome … and he was a … Kennedy. So shut up.
No, but the author and various commenters are drawing awfully extensive conclusions about the character of a man they could only have be cursorily familiar with and making use of his fatal accident as an excuse to do that. Seven or eight of Joseph Kennedy’s grandchildren have been public nuisances at one time or another. That is not a defensible reason to posthumously trash their cousins.
Reminds me of NOVA talking about accidental supersonic pilots (or at least the show was about supersonic, and the event was about control loss) bailing out b/c they were fighting a losing battle with the stick. They’d land on their chute, and the plane would level off and fly right.
If these clowns (all of them, including the republicans) would just back off and let us fly… well, maybe after the collapse.
Charlie Martin
“because it’s what I wanted to say.”
And, after reading the first couple of sentences, it was what I wanted to read.
Churchill’s science adviser, “The Prof,” was a pilot early in his career. In World War I, the British were losing a lot of pilots to accidents and found that they could not get the most popular plane (I can’t remember which one) out of a spin. He decided to figure out how to do it and took one up and put it into a spin. He figured out the solution before the ground intervened. Incredible story. I used to be an aeronautical engineer but never learned to fly the damned things. Hence the interest.
From Lindeman’s biography:
In 1915, he joined the staff of the Royal Aircraft Factory at Farnborough. He developed a mathematical theory of aircraft spin recovery, and later learned to fly so that he could test his ideas himself.[1] Prior to Lindemann’s work, a spinning aircraft was almost invariably fatal.
You bring to mind another flight metaphor–The Spin.
A lot of early pilots finding themselves in a spin died because they kept pulling back on the stick to gain altitude but instead kept the plane in a stall and spun into the ground.
After a bit someone learned that reversing the controls–stick forward and opposite rudder–would usually stop the spin and prevent a crash.
Same thing with Obama and the plunging spin this country is in. Time to reverse controls.
Same thing with Obama and the plunging spin this country is in. Time to reverse controls.
You could almost say it’s a general rule: if what you’re doing isn’t working, for Gods’ sakes do something *else*.
I am hoping every day that we do reverse direction. Even if we do this time, I find it difficult to accept that this election is even close. What has happened to Americans?
The trouble with a comment like this is that it assumes that Obama isn’t doing what he wanted to the country.
Far too many people give Obama credit in meaning well, when in reality, he’s wanted to both loot the country for his cronies and get more and more people dependent on the government. Done and done. And foreign policy wise, he’s done his best to diminish the standing of this country, and again, mission accomplished.
This may sound a tad Rumsfeldian but, there is nothing on earth more dangerous than a guy who doesn’t know what he doesn’t know
It fills me with incandescent rage to read lines containing the phrase “in America’s royalty”.
We do not have royalty.
“America’s Royalty” (Kennedys, et al.; movie stars, etc.) think we do.
And behave accordingly.
Joseph Kennedy, about four of his nine children, and about 8 of his 28 grandchildren have a history of bad behavior (which incorporated a sense of entitlement in some cases but perhaps not in others). It is possible to be fair to the rest of them.
As for people claiming that Obama’s failed because Congress obstructed his program, they should know that that’s also a failure–a failure of leadership.
One of my favorite quotes via a Clint Eastwood movie more or less is something to the effect of: “A man has to know his limits.”. This is so true in many areas of modern life to an incredible degree. The question of limits is everywhere and the lack of them explains so much.
Don’t forget that 0bama was sure the reason his health care plan was in doubt was that he ‘hadn’t explained it well enough for the American public to understand.’ He was all set to give more speeches, not realizing that every time he spoke the plan became less popular. He was certain that the Americans just weren’t bright enough to understand.
“[Obama] was certain that the Americans just weren’t bright enough to understand.”
What’s chilling about this is that Obama’s been told by his handlers that Americans just aren’t bright enough to understand his health care plan because Obama, himself, isn’t bright enough to understand it.
I watched Obama interviewed the other day on the Fast and Furious fiasco by the Mexican news team with the sound off and it was clear from his body language and total lack of affect that he is a ‘bot. He’s a cypher for the ideas of his handlers. They fill him up and let him go, always accompanied by his teleprompter. Without the teleprompter pumping him with his programmers’ words, he’s toast.
That’s why I can’t wait to see him in the presidential debates. By all rights, he should be pulverized by Romney, unless the idiot-consensus-media moderators, all cheerleaders for Zero, pull a few fast ones to shore up their candidate.
If Obama wins another term, the whole free world’s in big, big trouble. I’m a Canadian who desperately wants Obama out of the White House. He’s too big a threat to not just the U.S. but to the democratic freedoms of the West to win another term. That would be a disaster.
Pilots are taught to trust their instruments. Even VFR pilots are given some instrument training as they may find themselves IFR. JFK Jr. forgot the basics and flew into the water.
The problem with Obama is his, even though he trusts his instruments, they are flawed, he doesn’t have an instrument rating, and he is in the middle of downing his check ride.
By the way, airspeed is controlled by thrust, not pitch. Don’t believe me? Let’s go flying. I will let you use the yoke and I get the throttles.
Man, I’m way too old to get in this argument again. There’s a reason I wrote “pilots are taught”….
I know but I couldn’t resist. LOL
So you don’t beleive in Attitude/Airspeed training?
Funny thing, full power the plane will still go slow with the nose up, and fast with the nose down. Power off? Faster with nose down than with nose up.
Fancy that.
By the way, I will happily take you up on your offer.
We’ll get in a Cesna 182 and take it up to 5,000 feet. At that point I will trim it to 85 Knots indicated. You may then take the throttle.
I gaurentee you that no matter where you set that throttle, the aircraft will continue to fly at 85 Knots Indicated until we hit the ground or the service cieling. Period. (Even if we run out of gas.)
Likewise, he can chop the throttle and, if I have sufficient altitude, I can get the airspeed up to redline until the ground interferes. He can go full throttle and I’ll still be able to stall the plane.
Wolfgang was right. “Stick and Rudder” is a classic for a reason.
(From http://washingtonexaminer.com/chapter-iii-the-1997-speech-that-launched-obama/article/2508419#.UF58s1HUmS- )
February 14,1997:
” . . . Obama laid out a powerful vision for a political strategy that ultimately reshaped housing activism on the Left, first in Chicago and then nationwide, even as it paved the way for an accommodation between the corrupt political machine of Mayor Richard M. Daley and its long-standing nemesis, the city’s coalition of white liberal reformers and black community organizers.
Obama described a practical strategy for building on the federal Low Income Housing Tax Credit, or LIHTC, contained in the 1986 Tax Reform Act, plus federal, state and local funds and programs, to create new public-private development partnerships.
“The LIHTC encouraged the partnerships needed to unite government officials and progressive nonprofit activists behind the cause of building thousands of new affordable-housing units, first on Chicago’s poor South Side and then, as the movement spread, to similar neighborhoods across the nation. . . ”
” . . . Obama’s innovation was to expand the concept beyond simply building affordable apartments and high-rises. It encompassed a cradle-to-grave vision of providing for the material needs of the low-income families residing in the new housing, including their schools, child care, job training, medical coverage, clothing and food.
In turn, the residents would campaign and vote for the officials advocating the partnerships, adding significantly to their political power.
Left unstated was the underlying reality that politically connected developers who built the housing would profit handsomely and could be expected to gratefully give millions of dollars in campaign contributions to politicians like Obama who made it all possible. . . “
too much money in and of itself leads to poor advice from many just because they want to curry favor. most wealthy people are not used to hearing no, so this can lead to a false sense of security
And with how many are you personally acquainted? Most wealthy people are elderly lady rentiers or they are common and garden businessmen who have managed to make good doing something ordinary like putting together a small chain of retail establishments or developing property. Why would you think such people are not told ‘no’ from time to time?
There is the rewriting history problem. The left always rewrites things to make everything show they were correct. So; you fly into clouds and think ‘hey; the New Deal worked for FDR! Lets do it again”.
The only thing I have more passion for than seeing Obama voted out of office is flying. Thus, while appreciating the point of your article and agreeing this administration appears to have lost its horizon and possibly its sanity, I have to dispute one of your main points.
In the second paragraph you state that “he flew into bad weather,” the narrative being that JFK, Jr. arrogantly, or displaying “a lack of humility” as I believe you later described it, and knowingly put himself and his family members into jeopardy through some act of hubris. Positioning your point in this manner is an opinion, not a fact.
According to the NTSB report, the weather at the time of the accident was no ceiling (Clear skies)and visibility 5 to 8 statute miles. See http://dms.ntsb.gov/aviation/AccidentReports/sajkct45ja0qz2f3d1gtxsal1/O09222012120000.pdf. His earlier pre-flight weather reports called for clear skies and visibility of between 4 and 10 miles along the flight route. According to the same NTSB report, he had flown to that evening’s destination some 35 times over the previous 15 months, including 17 legs with no instructor on board and 5 of those at night. In other words, he neither made a bad decision to make the flight nor did he knowingly continue into bad weather. Based on the information available to him and on his previous experience, his decision to make the flight was probably the same one I would have made.
Where he did err, and this makes your point more graphically than saying “he asked for it” in my opinion, is when he turned off the auto-pilot. The onset haze was probably not noticeable and thus caused no alarm. Then he bent down to scratch his leg, or made some equally innocent move, and his inner ear disconnected his “seat” from what his instruments said. Despite training, his “seat” won out, he shut off the auto-pilot and sealed his (their) fate. (Let me say here that until you’ve been in that situation you can’t imagine how strong the feeling that you are right and the instruments are wrong really is. There is nothing I can compare it to that even comes close to the certainty that your own sense of up and down is the only thing correct in your aircraft.)
The analogy between the actions of JFK, Jr. and Obama then works; they lost their horizon. How any commenter went from that to “too much money,” buying a plane to avoid scrutiny, too cheap to hire a pilot, too dumb or too arrogant to fly, well, I think it speaks more for their attitude towards either flying or JFK, Jr. or both than it does about the facts of the crash.
Another place you and I might disagree is on whether or not Obama accidentally ended up where he, and by default our country, is today. There is a pretty strong case for him doing exactly what he intended. We are weaker in the world, we are weaker at home, the saber-rattling of domestic class warfare is becoming louder, the limits of Federal power have been broadened beyond recognition in 3-1/2 years and our economy is in shambles.
Obama promised that he would “Change the face of America” and he has. The “New Normal” is a frightening thing, especially when you consider that only a 4% change in the number of people who depend on the government for their daily subsistence would assure that it becomes permanent. Perhaps the issue isn’t that he “lost his horizon” as much as it is that his horizon is radically different from yours and mine.
By the way, IMHO, JFK, Jr. was by far the best of that crowd, if only because he avoided the crown that would surely have been his had he entered politics.
Well, I’m used to flying out here in Colorado, where CAVU is an average day, but the FAA report was 5-8 miles visibility and no visible horizon; that sounds like bad weather for VFR to me. Add night falling.
Lew Rockwell had an author on one of his recent shows discuss his belief that Jr.was killed. IIRC, it had something to do with a disappearing flight instructor and discrepancy on the flight log. Not sure I buy it but the motive was there – he would have been the favorite for the Senatorial seat which ended up being filled by Hillary Clinton.
A slightly different take on the JFK Jr. tragedy here:
http://www.docmercury.com/rainy/who-killed-jfk-jr
#43, spot on…aviate, navigate, communicate….in that order…Saratoga is a sweet airplane – AP On, twist bug, adjust power/trim, tune localizer…jeepers, there’s the rabbit….basic stuff…
forgot one thing…prolly had a moving map gps, finding destination about as difficult as me finding the bathroom at 3:00 am…I can do that in my sleep…
I agree hubris plays a large role in Obama’s failure as a president. Nemisis isn’t far behind, and unfortunately, we’re all going to have to deal with the consequences of Obama’s prideful actions whether we agreed with his course or not – just like the passengers in a plane piloted by an incompetent pilot.
Now, if you REALLY want to discover a whole new level of concern, consider a certain very large asian nation with a large population of young males known as “little princes”, and what THEIR approach to other nations is going to be when THEY start to move into positions of authority.
They are creating an entire nation with Obama’s mentality….
I am not sure this is the best of analogies. JFK Jr. made a discrete set of errors doing something he was trained (but insufficiently trained) to do; I am not sure that indicates his judgment was globally problematic rather than merely in error that one evening. Obama competed for, and won, a demanding executive position without any history as a line administrator or, indeed, any history of have persevered or accomplished much of anything in any position. He does not set priorities and is not interested in even conversing with the opposition.
How ironic is this blog post given the outcome of the election? Talk about a relevant point: “We see something parallel happening all the time: people who think they can handle something, and are unwilling to admit — or unwilling to believe — some outside reference.”
Can you say “538 Blog”?