All the Real News About Israel Is Good
Here’s a dramatic contrast for you: the real news about Israel is almost completely upbeat. Yet the subjective image of the situation, at least outside Israel, is rather gloomy. Let’s take a quick tour of the facts.
True, Israelis are known for being gloomy about the political situation. In fact, they generally enjoy criticizing things (themselves above all). As a result, Israel’s enemies often make the mistake of underestimating the country’s ability to endure, struggle, and prevail. Moreover, foreign media coverage of Israel, including especially its politics and security situation, is often ludicrous.
Start with economics. The numbers are really impressive: Israel’s economy did better than predicted in 2010 by a wide margin, growing by about 4.5 percent compared to only 2.7 percent for all of the other OECD (developed) nations. While living standards went down in most of the West, in Israel they rose by 2.7 percent. And let’s not forget Israel’s admission to the OECD, itself a monumental accomplishment.
Now let’s look at the strategic situation. According to the Israel Security Agency’s report for 2010:
- The number of rocket attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip declined from 2,048 in 2008 to 569 in 2009, and to “only” 150 — about one every other day — in 2010. (This reflects a tactical shift from Hamas, reversible at any time.)
- The total of attacks on Israel — including rockets and mortars from Gaza — declined from 1,354 in 2009 to 798 in 2010.
Obviously, it would be better if these numbers were at zero, but the security situation is quite sustainable. True, Hamas is smuggling mortar shells, rockets, and anti-tank rockets into Gaza, but Israeli forces will handle this threat as necessary.
Equally, let’s keep in mind that for the first time in Israeli history the country does not face a potential attack on all of its borders by Arab armies. In fact, there is not a single credible threat of an Arab or neighboring state going to war with Israel.
Yes, there’s Hamas, Hezbollah, and, possibly, a nuclear Iran to come. Yet compare that to Israel’s strategic situation in 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, or 2000. I bet you’d take 2011 over any of them, too.
To listen to the foreign media coverage and academic work — if piled up, they would challenge the Andes, Himalayas, and Alps in size — Israel faces catastrophe without a comprehensive Palestinian peace in a year or so. These analyses, however, never take into account two simple facts: the Palestinian Authority neither wants nor is capable of negotiating peace; and the most likely “peace” arrangements, given the Palestinian positions, would be more dangerous for Israel than the status quo.
For better or worse, there will be no breakthrough, no effective Palestinian unilateral declaration of independence, and no imposed solution. Israel is quite capable of coordinating a lot of things with the Palestinian Authority to maintain quiet and ensure that West Bank living standards rise.
No, this won’t last forever. But it isn’t going to fall apart that soon either.
funny how “good” news for israel (‘down’ to 150 rockets a year) would be code red anywhere else in the universe.
Israel faces challenges never on the radar before today!
1) Boycott by previously neutral groups
2) A duplicitous Britain in ways that are not easily imaginable
3) Chicago mob politics via Pres. Obama
4) Loss of Turkey as an ally
5) Eurabia – irrational loss of European support
6) International Court of Justice; Goldstone Report; Mavi Marmara
7) Regime change in Egypt
8 ) UN’s constant battery
9) Iranian control of Lebanon
10) Iranian nuclear weapons potential
11) Syrian chemical and biological weapons program
12) Lack of rain; thus dependence upon desalination to quench the water needs of the country. Water deficit is a choke hold agriculture and thus independence.
Israel will soon face a new Egyptian regime, as you say, with a population harboring a strong hatred for Jews, and for Israel, believing that the land of Israel belongs forever to their angry god, and now with an army trained and equipped by the USA, very superior to the one that invaded in 1973 with near catastrophic consequences. Hezbollah is dug in to the north, Hamas in the Gaza, and Syria backed by Iran and eager for another chance.
This article reminds me of the old tale about the fellow who jumped off the Empire State Building, and was heard to exclaim, as he passed the 20th floor, “Everything’s going great, so far!”
Let me see. My buddy became a grandfather the sixth time. His third son graduated from college, and youngest completed his service and is getting married. All his kids, grand kids and brothers and sisters are doing well, as are their kids and grand kids. His 90-year-old mother, a Shoah survivor, is enjoying the tribe every day, by spoiling the future of Israel with a Jewish mother’s love. That’s the real news from Israel.
As to “But isn’t Israel “losing” the information war?” Why would Lieberman try to recruit everybody from old kibbutz volunteers to every Jew living in diaspora to debate on Internet forums for Israel?
A bit optimistic but largely on the mark!
I’m glad you agree Ken. Indeed, I’m most glad that you in particular agree (with the caveats given). It’s a good thing to occasionally step back and take in the “big picture.”
To find sharp minds such as yours smiling, makes me smile as well.
– FF
For some reason, this article had the opposite effect … not optimism, but guarded readiness.
Complacency breeds non-preparedness…
A lot of what you say is true and important, but that “other than a threat by Iran to nuke the country” reminds me uncomfortably of “aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the theater party?”
“For better or worse, there will be no breakthrough, no effective Palestinian unilateral declaration of independence, and no imposed solution. Israel is quite capable of coordinating a lot of things with the Palestinian Authority to maintain quiet and ensure that West Bank living standards rise.”
Just another reason to let the Israelis and the Palestinians work it out by themselves. Personally, I don’t think there will ever be a true peace between the two because the Palestinians just don’t want it. Yasser Arafat proved that with Bill Clinton. But, having said that, if there is a truce or a peace to be had, Israel and the Palestinians will work it out. They do NOT need the United States. This whole “peace process” is a joke and, if they want “peace,” they are the ones to work it out, not us.
Hear hear! Harrumph! Indeed Sir you speak the unvarnished truth — and might I add that over the past year or two, you’ve consistently done so.
– FF
Look at it this way -
Take petroleum out of the equation and Israel has stuff that people around the world Want to buy and do buy. Of what MUSLIM NATION can you say the same? Pakistani A-Bombs don’t count either – people don’t buy them, Governments and Mafias do.
Dr. Shalit
I’m glad to hear things are going well.
By how much can the US reduce it’s foreign aid to Israel?
By the same amount that the Sa’udis have decreased their subsidies to Salafist madrassas.
Israel can give up 100% of US aid. But without it why would Israel respond to Obama’s pro-Arab pressure? US aid gives America a seat at the table…
The “aid” is earmarked for purely military purchases from the US. The ultimate benefit is to US.
The problem with the Middle East region is that the situation is never stable, and everything can change on short notice, or with a single action. We’ve seen this recently as one guy’s self-immolation overthrew the established order in Tunisia, which then threw Egypt – already suffering from high food prices and unemployment – into chaos. Or recall 2006 when Hamas and Hizbullah crossed their respective borders to kill or capture IDF soldiers. Or last year when Turkey supported the effort to “break” the blockade of Gaza.
Now consider a few scenarios: Egypt forms a new governing coalition with elements sympathetic to their “brothers” in the Gaza strip and elects to ease or end the blockade, allowing more weaponry to flow in. Or Hizbullah decides the time is right to “start something”, confident that its missiles now threaten the whole of Israel. Or Iran, working with North Korea, sets off a nuclear device. Or maybe something closer to home, like Obama deciding the “fierce moral urgency” of creating a Palestinian state justifies allowing harsh sanctions against Israel to pass in the Security Council. (Seriously, who knows with this guy?)
The reason “stability” in the region has long been such a precious objective is that developments there can rapidly spin out of control, with unpredictable consequences.
Egypt’s instability has made it crystal clear that Israel is the only dependable democratic Western ally in the middle east. The US and EU have to be grateful to have Israel as a solid ally. That’s the good part. Iran remains the biggest threat. When Israel eventually attacks Iran, it will need to deal with threats on many fronts: Hezbollah,Syria, Gaza, but now also possibly from Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood may gain control of Egypt in due course, and may elect to have a cease-fire, if not a continued peace treaty in effect with Israel. But if conflict arises with Iran, the MB cannot be trusted to not jump in against Israel.
“Equally, let’s keep in mind that for the first time in Israeli history the country does not face a potential attack on all of its borders by Arab armies.”
This was true until about 2 weeks ago. Egypt may be on the verge of breaking its peace treaty, and Jordan’s stability remains suspect.
Dr. Rubin must have penned this before the events in Egypt. Admittedly, this is a worst case analysis but if the Muslim Brotherhood take power in Egypt and that in turn leads to either the collapse of Hashemite rule in Jordan or more likely, cooperation with the Jordanian branch of the Brotherhood, Israel could face the renunciation of peace treaties. That is, states at least theoretically at war with Israel on its two longest borders.
1967, anyone?
Good news for Israel! The effect on the Israelis will be traumatic, let’s keep this to ourselves and not let the Israelis how good things are.
On a semi-serious note, everyone we know over there is taking vacations we can’t afford.
Finally back over here, I agree with a good deal of this commentary. Certainly you feel the resilience, confidence and warmth of people – something you miss completely when far away. However, the part about national unity seems off the mark, and the situation in Egypt is pretty worrisome and worrying (okay, it should be ‘worrying’, I know).
as one jew said to the other jew while watchiing pharoahs army drown,now everthing will go easy for us.
You paint a rosy picture.
But the Israelis can never lose sight of the fact that their neighbors are without exception resentful and covetous of what Israelis have and would strike at any moment if they felt they could prevail.
Israeli student’s poor educational performance is the achilles heel of Israeli society. Who would have thought that a Jewish state would rank near the bottom on international testing of its students.
How much of Israel’s economic and technology prowess is due to a tiny percent of resourceful immigrants from the Soviet Union and the U.S who were not products of the failed Israeli education system?
There sure are problems with Israeli education (similar to the ones in the U.S.), but the picture you paint is overly simplistic. My own cousin in Herzliyah just sold his start-up to an American company for several millions. He has a degree in electrical engineering from the Technion in Haifa an an MBA from Hebrew U.
Thanks for an upbeat article. Someday soon, Israel will again be a valued ally of the United States.
In the meantime, we are lucky to have Benjamin Netanyahu as the leader of the Free World.
Whatever happened to the idea that an “Israeli Lobby” was running America’s foreign policy. I haven’t heard anything about it during the present crisis. It seems to me that they would be supporting Mubarak. What does John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt have to say about this? Who are these two “realists” supporting the “Democratic people” or the Mubarak regime? Has anyone heard from them?
To me the irony of the idea of a Palestinian State is that the people least affected by such a new Palestinian polity which is the West, would be the only place from which Israel would gain any credibility.
The U.N. and Anti-Apartheid Week’s would be taken down a notch and talk of sanctions or boycotts against Israel would diminish. No big deal really.
Among grass roots muslims in the middle east a 2 state solution would be no solution since the theme there is for Israel to somehow disappear.
The reality Islamic gov’t's have to face which their population’s do not is that Israel is tough, smart and has nuclear weapons. For me this is the source of the dichotomy between the way the Egyptian people’s disapprove of their gov’t's realism in dealing with Israel.
It is why the rebellion in Egypt will most likely fail as it is one thing to march in the streets and another to expect Egypt’s governor’s and ruling party to give up being millionaires with what dividend in return.
I went to Tahrir Square today and there is a definite sense that the army is starting to get impatient with the protesters. Gone is the day when the protesters stood atop tanks until no more could fit while the soldiers themselves were intimidated by sheer weight of numbers into sometimes siding with the protesters. One can only imagine the fate of the soldier who was on the shoulders of a protester in a crowd shouting out against Mubarak in Tahrir Square on Jan.30.
Today there are protesters blocking the tanks but there is more infantry in the area where several days ago there was none. The army has gone from not wanting their men and tanks photographed to taking exception to foreign photographers being there at all. Mostly they are tolerant of it but I was given mixed messages in my photography.
One commander said I could take pictures where the protesters had fought with pro-Mubarak supporters on an overpass one night. On the way back another sought me out and told me it would be advisable for me to leave the square altogether and said my lack of a credential was a big problem for me. Just after that another soldier caught up with me and said it was okay if I stayed on the side of the square where the public tended to congregate and not let the last commander see me doing it.
When it comes to the Muslim Brotherhood, forget about them. The non-MB protesters themselves all told me when I asked them that their hope for “Palestine” is to have no Israel, even a 21 yr old medical student who had been helping the wounded and dying from Wed. and Thurs. One woman who had only left the square once since its occupation told me they would deal with Israel once they had dealt with Egypt.
One can only imagine why the press has been attacked and intimidated, as if something is going to take place the gov’t does not want the world to see.
The problem for the gov’t should they take a hard line and somehow succeed in clearing out the protesters in the middle of the night when their numbers are weakest, is that the call to march on Tahrir Square would simply go out once again.
Maybe the gov’t's real game is to simply wait out the protesters. The city for the last 2 days has looked almost normal with the police back and the neighborhood watch groups and checkpoints gone.
The continued resolve of the protesters to take to the streets will be the deciding factor as turning Suez, Alexandria and Cairo into war zones that could only be suppressed with the deaths of an amazing amount of citizens is obviously problematic for the gov’t.
The protesters greatest fear is that the gov’t will simply wait them out and the grass roots enthusiasm die down. The core group of protesters are scared to leave the square as they and many others will simply be scooped up at leisure by the gov’t.
My guess is that Israel is probably fervently praying the protesters fail. Mr. Rubin is probably correct in that the Palestinian Arab leadership has no real interest in a 2 state solution and I myself feel that any PA leader who brokers a deal for a Palestinian State in a now shrunken West Bank will be immediately assassinated.
Even in a worst case scenario, Egypt can turn off gas supplies, close the Straights of Tiran and start military posturing again as under Nasser and Sadat and all it will get them is going to the peace table and asking Israel to once again give them back the Sinai. This time Israel might say forget it.
Closing the Straights of Tiran is a Casus Belli — just as it was in 1967 (and hopefully with a similar end result…)
As someone like myself who does lead generation for many Israeli companies – I’m always impressed with the amount of people that prefer to do business only with Israeli companies. We even get many inquires from various Arab countries interested in Israeli products.
Barry
From your mouth to God’s ears that things are much less dangerous than is being purported by the leftists.
However, this administration and this President have shown a proclivity to listen to the likes of Robert Malley, Rashid Khalidi, George Soros, …and I’m not sure where Valerie Jarret’s sympathies lie, but I wouldn’t bet a lox and bagel lunch on Israel over Iran.
The late Edward Said was no stranger to Obama, Ali Abuminah, Jeremiah Wright, Louis Farrakhan, William Ayers (and 431 professors along with him)
http://frontpagemag.com/2010/01/07/bill-ayers-israel%E2%80%99s-latest-attacker-by-p-david-hornik/
Malley has been appointed to a high post previously and holds some pretty well disguised animus against Israel.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66568/robert-malley-and-peter-harling/beyond-moderates-and-militants
It simply seems to me, Barry, that our attitude toward Israel is more than problematic. It is an open invitation to unleash pent up Jew hatred, while we not only avert our gaze…we, her most trusted ally the whole of her existence, turn our backs on her…and worse.
We have given Israel the back of our hand for two years now. I could not be more ashamed. If she is in danger, it is we who rolled out the red carpet for her enemies.
This little farce being played out with our Alphonse and Gaston routine with our stance on Egypt, simply plays into the hands of those that mean to surround her…and drive her into the sea.
If it’s incompetence, it is gross negligence. If it is malice, it is not well disguised. We don’t hold an AIPAC alliance in our highest reaches of government, we would be more aligned with J Street. That is disgusting and shameful as well.
We, the people…overwhelmingly love Israel as our sister nation. But, we don’t currently have much sway…our government does not care what we think. They ignore our own Constitution, regulations and rules for governance and our wishes…with impunity. The leftists hate America and Israel and all that we stand for…and against. They have ripped a chasm between our two nations. And, we, the people…may be helpless to intervene at the moment. I hope not before it is too late for us all.
Leftists are always anti-semetic.
They are also racists.
But as people whose primary skill is lying (or else they would have no allies for their lunatic proposals), they claim the opposite and double-down by saying the same of others.
Proreason, I hope you and Barry take a minute to review those links.
They are quite telling…and frightening….if one takes the time to follow the path they logically lead one down.
Bill Ayers & his dumb femme fatale of a wife were also in on the flotilla thing, always hoping beyond hope (before they croak) to set off the spark for the revolution, the conflagration.
It almost seems like a waste of ink to even write about that self-aggrandizing, aging hippie, regardless of his past (and likely present) associations with Obama.
do the settlers agree that there is a consensus in israel about wanting peace, even if it means the establishment of a palestinian state? No. And they are not the only ones. If a consensus did exist, Israel would evacuate the settlements, but leave the IDF in place on the west bank until the palestinians came around. but that is not what is happening. the settlements are expanding. one day, the west bank will be inseparable from Israel proper and israel will have to deal with a few million more arabs in their state. That will be the end of a state that is jewish and democratic. So, yes, the boarders are fine, and the economy is good too, but israelis seems to be destroying themselves demographically with these settlements. that is and existential threat and things are not as rosey as you say. i would prefer 1960 israel to 2011 anytime. No demographic threat, no rightwing nutjobs running the state.
Check out this video and see how optimistic it makes you feel:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WAOsaHo428
It seems to me that Israel will face a growing threat from future generations of Arabs and Muslims, not a shrinking one. Calls for Israel’s dismantling are getting more shrill, and Islamic radicalism is on the rise. If Israel ever faces an Islamist axis of Iran, Turkey and Egypt–augmented by Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, possibly a jihadist regime in Jordan, and most detrimentally, a hostile or indifferent Obama administration–Israel will find little reason for optimism.
All in all, I’d still put my money on Israel, but boy will it be tough going. The end result may very well be a Pyrrhic victory.
You’re right Bodkin: it’s very very VERY depressing…
If Israel’s strength, reinforced by American support, provides an effective deterrent to the global threat of Islamic radicalism, who would be the best candidate for POTUS in 2012?
How about a ticket consisting of John Bolton and Allan West? The charisma and military credentials of West (and potential appeal to minorities) would complement Bolton’s toughness, experience and intellectual prowess. The two of them running the USA would project strength, sending the opposite message to America’s enemies which Obama is sending at this critical time. If Bolton is unelectable, one might consider Huckabee or even Donald Trump, who is charismatic enough to beat Obama and knows a thing or two about economics.
Considering how unstable the Middle East is becoming, the electorate may very well look to candidates who can project more strength than Obama. The issue of national security might be decisive next year.
“funny how “good” news for israel (‘down’ to 150 rockets a year) would be code red anywhere else in the universe.”
Except Iraq and Afghanistan…
What about Benny Gantz? Your colleague CBG doesn’t think it’s good news, and she’s likely right, right?
Israel should not give the Arabs who call themselves “Palestinian” an inch of land or call them “Palestinian.” “Palestine” and “Palestinian” always meant “land of the Jews” or “the Holy Land” and “Jew” from 135 A.D. when the Roman Emperor Hadrian, after defeating the last Jewish rebellion under Bar Kochba, changed the name of Judea to “Palestina,” in order to eradicate all memory of Judea and the Jews. He outlawed Judaism.
Calling Arabs “Palestinians,” with all the phoney history and propaganda associated with it, was the consequence of Gamal Nasser and the Soviet Union in 1964 in Cairo founding the “Palestine Liberation Organization,” as if Arabs were “Palestinians” and “Palestine” an ancient land of Arabs, non-Jews.
This was, and is, part of the attack on Israel for religious reasons – Jews are not Mohammedans – and the antisemitism of the Communists and their fellow travelers.
No one should call Arabs “Palestinians.”
Mr. Rubin, you forgot the best recent news of all – the massive natural gas finds of Tamar and Leviathan that will mean energy independence, a massive flow of foreign revenue, and possibly making SE Europe dependent on Israel
First, the main problem is the hostility of much of the Western intelligentsia (as in the media and academia) because this group has veered wildly to the left. This is not a problem Israel can resolve no matter what it does.
Isn’t Western intelligentsia an oxymoron ? A lot of these western veerers seem to be following a sort of de rigueur belief system demanded by the style of their clique. They express endless (and phony) compassion for the Gazans who train their 3 year old children to hate Jews.
Not much intelligence in that.
The only prosperous, stable democracy in the region gets ragged on relentlessly while the soupy, dysfunctional states in the area use that state as a scapegoat to cover up their own abject failings.
Jonah Goldberg in today’s LATimes…
“Why apologize for skyrocketing bread prices when you can demonize the “Zionist entity”?”
“Israel puts Arab critics in the Knesset. Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia put them in jail or in an unmarked grave.”
By the way there is absolutely NO consensus in Israel about a Palestinian state and big concessions over the land of Israel to Arabs. Many Israelis, at least 40%, do oppose. And many more agree only to few concessions, and none over Jerusalem.
Israelis are not crazy left-wingers.