Ahmadinejad Stabs Supporters in Back – Again
Isolated and losing popularity, in a surprising move, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has decided to split ranks with the very political party who helped him come to power in 2005.
It is the second time he has done it. The first incident occured during the Municipal elections in Iran in 2006, whereby his sister Parvin, and other supporters decided to split ranks from members of the right wing Principalist Party (known in Farsi as Osulgarayan) to whom Ahmadinejad originally belonged. Called The Scent of Good Service (Rayehe Khosh Khedmat in Farsi) coalition, his new coalition labelled itself as pro-Ahmadinejad’s policies during the 2006 elections.
With parliamentary elections scheduled for March 14th, members of the right wing Principalist Party have been trying to form a united coalition. Their goal is to improve their position against reformists and pragmatists in the next Parliament (Majlis).
This despite the fact that some prominent members of this movement such as Ali Larijani (former top nuclear negotiator), Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (current Tehran Mayor), and Mohsen Rezai (deputy head of Expediency Council), have one time or another competed against, or have had some kind a dispute with the President.
Viewing the reformists and pragmatists as a bigger enemy, while wishing to strengthen their dominance in the Majlis, many such senior politicians have so far refused to split ranks. Their unity is admirable, because had they decided to form a separate coalition against the increasingly unpopular Ahmadinejad, their chances for success would have actually been higher. This was witnessed in the 2006 municipal elections in Iran, whereby the coalition belonging to Ghalibaf and other moderate conservatives beat Ahmadinejad’s coalition in almost every single voting district.
After that loss, many thought that Ahmadinejad and his allies had learned their lesson. It seems that this is not the case. On Sunday 24thof February, his supporters stunned other fellow Principalist colleagues by declaring that the pro-Ahmadinejad Scent of Good Service coalition has reorganized itself again, and will be running as a separate coalition in the holy city of Qom, for the upcoming Majlis elections.
What is worrying is that Ahmadinejad’s allies are considering Ghasem Ravanbakhsh, the chief editor of the pro-Messianic Parto Sokhan newspaper, and an ally of Iran’s top messianic cleric, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, as their representative. This would mean that not only is Ahmadinejad trying to install his messianic allies in top ministerial posts (such as intelligence and internal affairs), he is also trying to do the same in the next Majlis as well.
With his economic policies facing the scorn of many Iranians, Ahmadinejad’s recent decision to split ranks is a tactical mistake, likely to cost him even more popularity, and influence inside Iranian politics. It is also the sign of a desperate politician, who is looking for every opportunity to improve his profile in a country which is becoming tired of his rhetoric and empty promises.
In the long run, the consequences of Ahmadinejad’s latest strategy are likely to be positive for the West. This is because Ahmadinejad’s strongest competitors, such as Larijani and Ghalibaf are more moderate than him. The weaker he is, the stronger they become. Although they are not the ultimate decision makers in Iran, the more power his competitors have, the more lobbying influence they will have with Iran’ supreme leader regarding important issues such as the nuclear program.
However in the short run, the expected defeat of Ahmadinejad’s allies at the next Majlis elections is likely to increase his motivations to provoke a conflict with the West, as this could be his only saviour for the 2009 presidential elections. With the recent assassination of Imad Mughniye in Damascus, and Hezbollah’s promises that Israel will soon collapse, Ahmadinejad is doing everything he can to signal his intentions.
His biggest obstacle is likely to be Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who does not seem to want a conflict with the West or Israel for now.
This could all change if another major blow is delivered against Hezbollah, or if Iran feels that an attack by Israel against its nuclear installations is imminent.
Meir Javedanfar is the co-author with Yossi Melman ofThe Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran. He runs Middle East Economic and Political Analysis (Meepas)
Wishful thinking.
With much respect, unfortunately the Iranian regime will endure all this, because the Iranian people aren’t enough fed up with it.
“Ahmadinejad’s strongest competitors, such as Larijani and Ghalibaf are more moderate than him. The weaker he is, the stronger they become. ”
This is the same threadbare tiresome siren song we’ve heard from Iranian expats and Iran “experts” since the Fall of the Shah, and the final fascist victory of Islam over Persia. It doesn’t wash any longer. It shouldn’t be listened to.
On Feb 26, 2008, Just two days after this Feb. 24th so-called “split” (which above is depicted as very ominous for A’jad and “positive for the West”), The Punk in Cheif mullah Khamenei lauded A’jad profusely, and he took especial note of his psychotic brinksmanship with regard to nukes. Sayeth the chief Islamic fascist of Iran:
“One example of an advance by the Islamic system has been the nuclear issue, in which the Iranian nation has honestly and seriously won a great victory.” For the first time, he echoed Ahmadinejad’s intransigent position and praised his role in advancing the nuclear issue as “outstanding.”
Ahmadinejad has the complete support of the head nazi mullah, he has the complete support of the Revolutionary Guards, and yet Javedanfar suggests that good news is just around the corner if we just have patience…
LET’S HAVE ANOTHER CUP OF COFFEE
by Irving Berlin
Just around the corner,
There’s a rainbow in the sky,
So let’s have another cup of coffee,
And let’s have another piece of pie.
Trouble’s like a bubble,
And the clouds will soon roll by,
So let’s have another cup of coffee,
And let’s have another piece of pie….
You get the picture.
“Ahmadinejad’s strongest competitors, such as Larijani and Ghalibaf are more moderate than him. The weaker he is, the stronger they become. ”
This is the same threadbare tiresome siren song we’ve heard from Iranian expats and Iran “experts” since the Fall of the Shah, and the final fascist victory of Islam over Persia. It doesn’t wash any longer. It shouldn’t be listened to.
On Feb 26, 2008, Just two days after this Feb. 24th so-called “split” (which above is depicted as very ominous for A’jad and “positive for the West”), The Punk in Cheif mullah Khamenei lauded A’jad profusely, and he took especial note of his psychotic brinksmanship with regard to nukes. Sayeth the chief Islamic fascist of Iran:
“One example of an advance by the Islamic system has been the nuclear issue, in which the Iranian nation has honestly and seriously won a great victory.” For the first time, he echoed Ahmadinejad’s intransigent position and praised his role in advancing the nuclear issue as “outstanding.”
Ahmadinejad has the complete support of the head nazi mullah, he has the complete support of the Revolutionary Guards, and yet Javedanfar suggests that good news is just around the corner if we just have patience…
LET’S HAVE ANOTHER CUP OF COFFEE
by Irving Berlin
Just around the corner,
There’s a rainbow in the sky,
So let’s have another cup of coffee,
And let’s have another piece of pie.
Trouble’s like a bubble,
And the clouds will soon roll by,
So let’s have another cup of coffee,
And let’s have another piece of pie….
You get the picture.
America still doesn’t know how to handle Iran. Its time you recognized that, and let Iran rule over Iraq and Lebanon
“America still doesn’t know how to handle Iran.”
I somehow suspect we probably do, but we’re just too nice ( so far ) to “handle Iran”.
And your idea is a good one about letting Iran “rule over Iraq and Lebanon…”
Allowing the nation with the second highest oil reserves and the highest natural gas deposits, a nation which can’t even figure out how to extract those simple accidents of geology out of the geound without the constant help and assistance from dirty kuffr, a nation whose people constantly boast about their amazing scientific prowess, but who can’t even figure out how to refine enough gasoline to provide its citizens with said gas, (it must be rationed in Iran it’s under such short supply), a nation whose capital, Tehran, is perhaps the filthiest metropolis on earth, (even surpassing Mexico and Delhi in filthiness — guess we infidels have’nt taught them how to pick up trash, or sold them any trash trucks lately.. ), a nation filled to overflowing with drug addicts and prostitutes, and corruption and backwardness and barbarity it that staggers and numbs the mind…
YES! Let’s see Iran “rule” in Iraq and Lebanon. Iran and Islam is great at “ruling”.
“One example of an advance by the Islamic system has been the nuclear issue, in which the Iranian nation has honestly and seriously won a great victory.” (Ayatollah Khamenei)
Playing the IAEA and Mohammed El Baradei like a Stradivarius.
Laughing all the way to the nuclear warhead.
Excerpt “With his economic policies facing the scorn of many Iranians, Ahmadinejad’s recent decision to split ranks is a tactical mistake, likely to cost him even more popularity, and influence inside Iranian politics.”
Iran is a non economy, its a socialist communist religous hegemony over all that is within the domain of economy. Everything in iran is about diversion of resources from the many, to the few. Using politbureau institutional kleptocracy, the citizens are robbed as a routine of existance. the intractable leadership is a failure in all respects. the illusion too power, is used as a slieght of mind mechanism, to cover up the undelying corruption that is the iran state.