About These Rumors
Is Castro dead (again)? Fausta Wertz, PJM's resident Caribbean expert, has been monitoring Cuban radio and writes: "This week has been abuzz with rumors regarding Fidel Castro. Over the past eight days dozens of people have told me that the announcement of Castro's death is imminent. Even the headline at Drudge Report today had "Castro Rumors Fill Miami", with a link to NBC6, South Florida's NBC affiliate, quoting the Cuban foreign minister, who insists that 'rumors about Fidel Castro's deteriorating health are untrue.' ... (art by Cox & Forkum)
The reality of the situation is its unreality.
Is Castro dead? Until the Cuban government makes an official announcement, there is no way of knowing for sure.
The Cuban government, however, has very little to gain and a lot to lose if and when they make an official announcement.
Fidel Castro has cultivated a cult of personality that spans two centuries and five decades. At the present time there is no one Cuban political figure that would be able to hold the country together. Even today the Cuban foreign minister asserted that 81-year-old Castro was still in charge and was “being informed and consulted constantly,” because Castro is the end-all of all power.
Throughout the past year the world has been treated to a series of videos and photos showing the ailing Castro wearing a jogging suit while entertaining visiting dignitaries, most prominently his disciple Hugo Chavez. Chavez, who is providing Cuba 80,000 barrels of oil daily, always returns from these trips exulting about how well Fidel is recovering.
After each of these, the Cuban government’s newspaper, Granma, repeats the same carefully crafted message the Cuban people have been hearing for nearly fifty years: to continue the struggle, to strive for the impossible. The US is “a decaying empire that threatens us all”. It also reminds Cubans that they too, should endure their sorrows – sorrows inflicted by Castro’s own dictatorship – without complaint. The bottom line of the message is, Nothing is ever going to change.
But the reality is that things will change, and will change rapidly immediately following the news of the death. Everything, from large-scale civil upheaval from a people long-oppressed by a cruel government, to a large number of exiled Cubans seeking to reunite with their relatives by bringing them to the USA, to a total collapse of Cuban society, can not be dismissed as a possibility.
The existing Cuban power structure will collapse.
When Castro dies, will the Cuban government release the information at the time of the death? That is very unlikely. Even with all the behind-the-scenes preparations that may or may not have taken place over the past twelve months, there will be a delay because those in power will try to hold on to power for as long as they possibly can.
So the question is, for how long will the news of Castro’s death be delayed?
This is precisely my opinion as well!!!!
Blog Reaction Roundup
Another thing to look forward to when he’s gone: Satan will have to endure those four-hour speeches.
When can I get some Cigars ! OOPPS to late, the ones coming out of Honduras now are just as good.
We can be hope, freedom for the people of Cuba after all this time.
Who cares?
I think that whenever it happens, we will hear about it in 24 to 48 hours — long enough for security forces to get on an alert footing and arrest a pre-made list of people whose continued freedom would be politically risky.
But the secret, which will necessarily be known to more than a handful of people, couldn’t be kept for much longer even in the face of a history of false rumors. And the people at the top also know that if they delay too long with the news — which will necessarily also mean lying about it — when the news does come out the delay will look like a sign of weakness and insecurity, as well as insensitivity to the true believers.
I suspect Fidel will live for maybe another 10 years or so-rememebr he has access to some of the finest doctors in the world.In the meantime he will let his brother take over most of the day to day duties of running the country.
In http://www.noticierodigital.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=242152 you can find maybe , the first rumor about the death of Fidel.It’s by the Interior Minister of Paraguay,Guillermo Delm√†s Frescura,in august 21.
Maybe he is just dying and extremely painful, torturous, slow, agonizing death as his conscience screams with memories of the thousands he killed, tortured and imprisoned.
….nah.
jim writes “who cares”
i live in central america, own property in nicaragua. i doubt jim appreciates the influence hat castro and hugo have here and in south america. america’s policies to latin america are horrible and have always been horrible. as a conequence most latin americans have an empathy for cuba and the other communists down here. i cannot tell you how many people i know in nicaragua that have the name fidel, or che. it is many. more than you would imagine. even liberales, latin conservatives, tell me the usa sent bad loans and guns, cuba sends doctors and teachers.
as a businessman all my life when i enter into agreements i try to negotiate a deal good to all sides because that is the sort that does not come back and bite. it would be good if our foreign policies had the same notion.
castro’s death may be an opportunity, but i doubt it is an opportunity state dept has a clue how to use to the advantage of the americas. the usa deserves the fidels, hugos, and daniels we have. we have breed and fertilized their movements now spreading to guatamala bolivia, columbia and mexico. you reap what you sow.
I live in central america, also. I own property in non-Nicaragua, also. Latin America has a 100+ year history of envying and resenting the U.S. – Fidel or no Fidel. We’re successful; they’re not. But if you look at the innovative new local investments in the non-Nicaragua-Cuba-Venezuela-Ecuador-Bolivia portion of LA, you can see the future being built. U.S. foreign policy is irrelevant, and the death of Fidel will only be noteworthy in Cuba. The Axis of 21st Century Socialism will continue their futile centuries long struggle to turn a sow’s ear into a silk purse.
Excellent review, I linked to your article from When Castro Dies comes the real revolution
Two words: Schroedinger’s Cat
I like this post.
Jim : “i care”
If it will neutralize the Republican Party’s stranglehold on the Cuban vote in Florida, then the announcement of Castro’s death can’t come soon enough.