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How the Palestinians Trap Themselves and Drag the West Along

May 5th, 2013 - 6:36 am

“Everything reactionary is the same; if you don’t hit it, it won’t fall. This is also like sweeping the floor; as a rule, where the broom does not reach, the dust will not vanish of itself.” –Mao Zedong, The Little Red Book

It is amazing how many massive revelations pass people by completely. Consider this new gleaning from the British Archives from early 1948, which sheds much light on current events.  British officials in the Palestine Mandate were reporting as follows:

”The [Palestine] Arabs have suffered a series of overwhelming defeats….”Jewish victories … have reduced Arab morale to zero and, following the cowardly example of their inept leaders, they are fleeing from the mixed areas in their thousands. It is now obvious that the only hope of regaining their position lies in the regular armies of the Arab states.”

This is confirmation from hostile British official sources of what Israel and its supporters have been saying for 60 years: that the origin of the Palestinian Arab refugee problem was due to the actions of the Palestinian Arabs themselves: first, their leaders decision to reject the partition into Arab and Jewish states, then their decision to go to war, and then their disorganization and poor leadership. The British Foreign Office even uses the word, “cowardice.”

Some things have changed since then; many have not. Today, as in 1948, the Zionist side is more eager for the existences of an independent Palestinian state living in peace inside permanent borders than is the Palestinian Arab leadership.

That statement might strike misinformed people as ludicrous, but it is nonetheless true, as they should have known since Yasir Arafat’s destruction of the Camp David summit meeting and rejection of the Clinton peace initiative of 2000. And that only followed on the earlier Palestinian rejectionism of the original Camp David summit in 1977, which offered a pathway to statehood, or various other initiatives.

And this pattern of behavior is being reinforced daily. Consider a recent incident. On April 30, an Israeli civilian father of five was stabbed to death by a Palestinian at the Tapuach Junction on the West Bank. The killer was a prisoner who had just completed his sentence and been released by Israel, as Secretary of State John Kerry wants Israel to release hundreds of other prisoners before their sentences are done.

The killer is a member of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. Note the following details:

–For many years Fatah, the ruling party in the Palestinian Authority (PA), denied the link with the brigade. Legal cases were held in the United States over the murder of Americans by the al-Aqsa Brigade in which PA lawyers strenuously denied any connection. But in 2009, the Fatah Congress, that organization’s highest authority, admitted that the al-Aqsa Brigades were part of Fatah, a fact one might have known earlier since that’s what it said on the Brigades’ web-site.

Fatah proudly took responsibility for earlier terrorist attacks by the group.

In the case of the April 30 murder, the official Al-Aqsa Brigades statement was very interesting, saying it had “received a green light to carry out military actions against Israeli targets in response to the deaths of prisoners Arafat Jaradat and Maysara Abu Hamdia in an Israeli prison.”

A green light from whom? Since the Brigades did not receive a green light from itself, this is an open admission that they were ordered to murder military civilians by the Fatah leadership, in other words by those ruling the PA, a Western-financed and supported entity.

–The two prisoners had been examined at autopsies conducted in the presence of PA officials. Thus, the PA knew that these two men died of natural causes. It was thus lying to its own people to incite them into supporting murders of Israeli civilians that the PA was ordering.

–In this case, however, a junior member of the Fatah Central Committee named Jamal Muheisen, while defending the attack, tried to distance his organization from responsibility:

“The Za’atra action was a natural response to attacks by the occupation and settlers [on Palestinians], but it does not express the general policy of the Palestinian Authority and of Fatah, who have espoused [the option of] popular resistance to the occupation.”

But it was Muheisen and not the killer or the al-Aqsa Brigades that was criticized universally by Fatah. Nobody came to Muheisen’s defense. On the contrary, the killer was praised as a hero who restored Fatah’s pride. No doubt, a street, a square, or something else will be named in his honor in future.

One Fatah member put it this way:

“[The killer] is a hero of the Fatah movement, a revolutionary and a fighter who restores Fatah’s pride and former glory; he exposes the dark [face of] interested parties and unmasks the mercenaries.”

–But why use the phrase about restoring Fatah’s pride? Because the organization’s pride is counted by the number of Israelis it kills. That’s how score is kept in Palestinian politics, even in 2013. When Fatah isn’t killing Israelis it is ashamed (restores…former glory), while any Palestinian—like Muheisen—who doesn’t support it is one of the “mercenaries,” presumably of the Zionists and Americans. If Fatah doesn’t keep up the killings, it believes that means it loses ground to Hamas.

And if that’s not enough refutation, Abbas Zaki, a Fatah Central Committee member far more powerful than Muheisen–he was Arafat’s specialist on Arab regional politics--just claimed that Israel carried out the September 11 attacks on the United States.

Today, though, the most important fact about the PA is that it is in a box of its own making. It cannot win militarily against Israel, nor will it engage in serious diplomacy with Israel. During a recent meeting in Washington, supposedly to show Arab state support for a two-state solution, the PA’s representatives glowered in making clear they weren’t interested in serious negotiations with Israel.

Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the Fatah chiefs finally rid themselves of relatively moderate Prime Minister Salam Fayyad who was too honest for their purposes. Fayyad blasted the PA’s corruption and incompetence in a New York Times interview and then denied he had said these things, hoping for political survival.  It isn’t clear whether he might return but clearly the credibility of the PA regime’s front-man, who was effective at collecting international donation, should be undermined.

So what can the PA do? Collect billions of dollars in Western aid, stage occasional terrorist attacks, try to use the UN General Assembly’s designation of Palestine as a “non-member state” to try to get into international groups and someday sue Israel in the World Court. It is precisely because it lacks any active alternative that the PA and its allies are engaged in an unprecedented public relations’ campaign complete with strenuous attempts to subvert support for Israel in Jewish communities, boycotts, and disinvestment drives. This echoes the old PLO strategy although in this case it is not Arab state armies but armies of activists that will weaken Israel to the point that it must make huge concessions and subsequently collapse. Of course, this strategy won’t work as it did not work in the 1960s and 1970s.

Meanwhile, the PA leadership benefits from the status quo, they live well, pocket the aid money, posture as revolutionaries, and avoid being “traitors” by refusing to make peace.

A Western reader of this article might well think that such a situation is possible. It certainly isn’t what he’s seeing in the Western mass media. Yet the above description is nonetheless true.

The same person might conclude, with more justification, that such a situation cannot be sustained. He would look for a “solution,” assuming that the Palestinian leadership wanted such a solution. You know, we all know the broad outlines of a potential comprehensive agreement and we can play at drawing borders and have fun imagining the status of Jerusalem.

Yet the deadlock nonetheless prevails and it will prevail.

There is, of course, one way out: A Hamas takeover. Indeed, Hamas is becoming gradually more popular on the West Bank. Yet Western donations would dry up, Israel will keep the PA in power as the better of two bad alternatives.

Is it because Israel builds more apartments in settlements? That should be an argument for making the Palestinians more eager, not more negative, about making a deal to get rid of all settlements on Palestine’s territory.

While many in Israel, especially on the political right, wanted to keep the West Bank and Gaza Strip in the 1970s and 1980s, there is a broad Israeli consensus today that the goal is to get rid of involvement with these territories as long as it can be done in a way that reduces the likelihood of war and enhances security. The problem is that there has been no way found to do so. The left’s solution is to walk away from any present there; the problem with that idea is what has happened in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip where that strategy has been tried, plus the growing radical Islamist wave in the region to which a new state of Palestine would probably fall prey.

No, it’s because of the same thinking and strategy on the Arab side that has prevailed for more than 60 years. It is that thinking that views the murder of Israeli civilians as a source of glory and negotiations with Israel or moderation as a sign of treason.

Why, a colleague asks, is there such a growing gap between the lynch mobs hating Israel being trained on many college campuses and other public or media institutions, and the far different Western policies toward Israel on the government level?

The answer is this: the policymakers know the truth but conceal it from their publics sometimes because it benefits their perceived state interests (make Arabs and Muslims generally happy) and political interests (plays up to the left-wing activists). That’s too bad but reality remains unchanged.

 

 

Israeli air force F-16s attacked targets inside Syria while flying over Lebanon. Claims that these targets were chemical weapons were denied by Israeli sources. More likely they were long-range missiles being transported from Syria to Lebanon. While able to carry chemical warheads, they could also have been used by Hizballah to target Israeli cities.

The weapons were being sent to Hizballah, the Lebanese terrorist group that is also a leading part of Lebanon’s government, for safe-keeping or possible use. In 2006, Israel successfully destroyed longer-range missiles that Hizballah was preparing to use against Israel. More recently, in January 2013, Israel attacked and destroyed facilities intended for the construction of nuclear weapons for Syria.

An Israeli official said that the weapons shipment could have potentially been “game-changing.”

Israeli sources also carefully stressed that the planes did not enter Syrian airspace. This statement was made to reduce the likelihood of Syrian government retaliation or claims that Israel had gone to war with Syria.

The fact is that Israeli policy remains neutral on the Syrian civil war and this approach is unlikely to change. While there have been debates within the Israeli government over whether a government or rebel victory or long-term deadlock would be preferable from the standpoint of Israeli interests, no conclusion has been reached on this matter.

And, of course, this debate has been academic, since Israel has no way to affect the outcome. From an Israeli government point of view, while the Assad regime has been unremittingly hostile and is allied with Iran, a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood with freedom of action for hardline Salafi groups including al-Qaeda is not clearly an improvement in the situation.

The rebels already control the Syrian side of the border with Israel, across from the Golan Heights. Their possession of advanced weapons—notably state-of-the-art anti-aircraft missiles—is worrisome. Israel also worries about Brotherhood-Salafist destabilization of Jordan, which is at peace with Israel.

Israel has also worried about the transfer of advanced weapons, especially chemical weapons, to Syria’s ally, Hizballah, for potential future use against Israel. As rebel forces have advanced closer to the places where these weapons are stored, the Syrian regime has been transferring some arms to Hizballah, reminiscent of the way that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein moved weapons to Syria when he was facing overthrow by a U.S.-led coalition in 2003. Of course, Israel equally worries about possible rebel—which means Brotherhood and Salafist—capture of these chemical weapons.

Here’s old Syrian television footage of firing the type of missiles involved.

ps: Note how everyone has forgotten the 2006 promise to Israel by the UN and United States to stop this kind of arms smuggling from Syria to Lebanon. None of the media coverage mentioned that Israel has to do something that the international community promised to do.

The next day there were large explosions near Damascus apparently caused by additional air strikes that set off the solid fuel in missiles or stored there.

 

If you are interested in reading more about Syria, you’re welcome to read my book The Truth About Syria online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about Egypt and radical Islamist movements, you’re welcome to read my book Islamic Fundamentalists in Egyptian Politics online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about the Arab-Israeli conflict, current regional situation you’re welcome to read my book Tragedy of the Middle East online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, you’re welcome to read my book The Arab States and the Palestine Conflict online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about the politics and warfare in the Persian Gulf area you’re welcome to read my book Cauldron of Turmoil online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about why studying our personal genealogies is so important to understand our own lives and my grandparents’ town of Dolhinov you’re welcome to read my book Children of Dolhinov: Our Ancestors and Ourselves  online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about anti-Americanism, you’re welcome to read my book Hating America – A History online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about Turkey’s history—during World War Two–you’re welcome to read my book Istanbul Intrigues online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about moderate movements in the Arab world and their radical enemies you’re welcome to read my book The Long War for Freedom-The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about how dictatorships work and how that system has dramatically changed  you’re welcome to read my book Modern Dictators-Third World Coupmakers, Strongmen, and Populist Tyrants  online for free.

If you are interested in reading more about the history of U.S.-Iran relations and the Iranian revolution you’re welcome to read my book Paved with Good Intentions: The American Experience and Iran online or download it for free..

If you are interested in reading more about U.S. foreign policy and its history, you’re welcome to read my book Secrets of State: The State Department and the Struggle Over U.S Foreign Policy online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about Jewish history, you’re welcome to read my book Assimilation and Its Discontents online or download it for free.

In order to download our books for free:

1.      Please go to: http://www.gloria-center.org/pt_free_books/.

2.      Select the book you want & click on the PDF icon under download formats.

3.      Open it & then right-click click save as.

4.      Alternately, you can click on the title of the book, and then select the PDF icon at the top for the full book or download individual chapters (for those books that this feature is available).

In addition, our books are also available for free download on Smashwords in different e-book formats including Kindle & others: http://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/GLORIAcenter. Simply click on the title and you should see a list of available download formats.

 

Israel’s economic and strategic situation is surprisingly bright right now. That’s partly due to the government’s own economic restraint and strategic balancing act, partly due to a shift in Obama Administration policy, and partly due to the conflicts among Israel’s adversaries.

Let’s start with the economy. During 2012, Israel’s economy grew by 3.1 percent. While some years ago this would not be all that impressive it is amazing given the international economic recession. The debt burden actually fell from 79.4 percent of Gross Domestic Product to only 73.8 percent. As the debt of the United States and other countries zooms upwards, that’s impressive, too.

Israel’s credit rating also rose at a time when America’s was declining. Standard and Poor lifted the rating from A to A+. Two other rating systems, Moody’s and Fitch, also increased Israel’s rating.

And that’s not all. Unemployment fell from 8.5 percent in 2009 to either 6.8 to 6.9 percent (according to Israel’s bureau of statistics) or 6.3 percent (according to the CIA).

Now not only is gas from Israel’s offshore fields starting to flow but a new estimate is that the fields are bigger than expected previously.

In terms of U.S.-Israel relations, the visit of President Barack Obama and Israel’s cooperation on Iran and on an attempted conciliation with Turkey brought quick rewards. For the first time, Israel will be allowed to purchase KC-135 aerial refueling planes, a type of equipment that could be most useful for attacking Iranian nuclear facilities among other things.

The same deal—which includes sales to Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to make U.S. allies feel more secure vis-à-vis Iran—includes V-22 Osprey planes that can switch between helicopter and plane mode. Israel is the first foreign country to be allowed to purchase this system. It could be used for border patrols—a bigger problem given the decline in the stability along the Egyptian and Syrian borders—and troop transport.

Finally, there would be more advanced radars for Israeli planes and a new type of missile useful for knocking out enemy anti-aircraft sites, potentially useful against Iran among other targets. In addition, an Israeli company is now going to be making the wings for the advanced U.S. F-35 fighter planes.

The completion of the border fence with Egypt increases security in places where Palestinian and Egyptian Islamist groups are trying to attack. It also has reduced illegal civilian crossings to zero. Ironically, Israel has gotten control of its border while the U.S. government proclaims that task to be impossible for itself.

And of course there is the usual and widely varied progress on medical, agricultural, and hi-tech innovations. Here is a summary of those inventions.

That doesn’t mean problems don’t exist, including a budget deficit caused by some boosts in social spending (responding to protests in 2012) and unexpected defense spending to protect the border with Egypt or to handle the Iranian threat. But that deficit will be addressed, unlike in other countries. Here is a discussion of the problems and likely policies of the new government.

The picture is even bright regarding U.S.-Israel relations, certainly compared to the previous four years. This point is highlighted by Wikileaks publication of a U.S. embassy dispatch of January 4, 2010, describing my article that day in the Jerusalem Post:

“[As far as Israel is concerned] what is important is that Obama and his entourage has learned two things. One of them is that bashing Israel is politically costly. American public opinion is very strongly pro-Israel. Congress is as friendly to Israel as ever. For an administration that is more conscious of its future reelection campaign than any previous one, holding onto Jewish voters and ensuring Jewish donations is very important….

“The other point is that the administration has seen that bashing Israel doesn’t get it anywhere. For one thing, the current Israeli government won’t give in easily and is very adept at protecting its country’s interests. This administration has a great deal of trouble being tough with anyone. If in fact the Palestinians and Arabs were eager to make a deal and energetic about supporting other U.S. policies, the administration might well be tempted to press for an arrangement that largely ignored Israeli interests.

“But this is not the case. It is the Palestinians who refuse even to come to the negotiating table — and that is unlikely to change quickly or easily. Arab states won’t lift a finger to help the U.S. on Iran, Iraq, or Arab-Israeli issues. So why bother?”

I think this analysis really fits the events that came to fruition in March 2013 with Obama’s coming to Israel, signaling a change in U.S. policy.

Face it. The obsession with the “peace process” is misplaced and misleading. The big issue in the region is the struggle for power in the Arabic-speaking world, Turkey, and Iran between Islamists and non-Islamists. And, no, the Arab-Israeli conflict has very little to do with these issues. Those who don’t understand those points cannot possible comprehend the region. Secretary of State John Kerry may run around the region and talk about big plans for summit conferences. But nobody really expects anything to happen.

This is not, of course, to say that there aren’t problems. Yet what often seems to be the world’s most slandered and reviled country is doing quite well. Perhaps if Western states studied its policies rather than endlessly criticized them they might gain from the experience.

There’s something very strange about this alleged new Arab League peace initiative and I find no serious addressing of these issues in the media coverage. A step toward efforts by Arab states to move toward proposing a possible peace with Israel is a good thing. Especially touted is an idea, mentioned by Qatar’s representative at the Washington meeting, to accept an agreement that small border modifications could be made to the pre-1967 lines.

Here’s how the Associated Press reported on this, with the headline, Arab League sweetens Israel-Palestinian peace plan“:

The Arab League’s decision to sweeten its decade-old proposal offering comprehensive peace with Israel has placed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a bind and swiftly exposed fissures in his new government.

In other words, you’d have to be a fool or a knave to reject this deal and the issue has divided Israel’s government. Yet chief negotiator Tzipi Livni was right to have reacted positively to the proposal and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be right to ultimately reject it.

After all, there are a lot of unaddressed points in the coverage that make me strongly suspect that this is a public relations stunt to convince America and Western opinion that the Arab states want peace with Israel when not all of them do.

And that’s one of the key questions. At the meeting with Secretary of State John Kerry there were representatives of the Arab League, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinian Authority.

But Arab League bureaucrats can’t agree on anything. Only a vote of the Arab League’s almost two dozen members can establish an official position. So this was not an Arab League plan at all. To represent it as an official Arab position is, then, untrue.

Indeed, we already know that the Palestinian Authority (PA) opposes this formula. At any rate, the United States cannot even get the PA to negotiate with Israel and yet fantasies of comprehensive peace are spread around by it. The mass media is cooperating in this theme, seeking to make Kerry look good at least.

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The current conventional wisdom about terrorism, Islamism, and the Middle East is being bent — but not broken — by two events. On one hand, there is the Boston bombing; on the other hand, we see developments in Syria, and to a lesser extent, Egypt. What’s happening?

In the Middle East, the misbehavior of Islamist movements is becoming more apparent. In Egypt, there is the repression of the Muslim Brotherhood regime, which — shock! — may actually intend to create a non-democratic Sharia state. Parallel behavior in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Turkey is underreported, but occasionally surfaces.

The most important single story at the moment, though, is Syria. Basically, the Obama administration has woken up and recognized what was readily apparent two years ago: they are helping to put radical, anti-American Islamists into power, and helping to provide them with advanced weapons which might be used for activities other than toppling Assad.

When the U.S. government wakes up, it nudges the media to get up also: what is quite startling is the extent to which the mass media is responsive to government policy — at least this government’s policy.

I want to explain this carefully in order to be fair.

Take this article in the New York Times, which can be summarized as saying that Islamist rebels’ gains in Syria create a dilemma for the United States. This is an article about U.S. policy, so naturally it describes how that policy is changing.

Yet at the same time, one wants to ask: why haven’t the policy consequences of this situation been described continuously by the media in the past? If a big truck is headed straight at you on the highway, might not the media sitting in the front passenger seat shout out a warning? Does it have to wait for the driver to notice before speaking?

And even so, the diffidence is astonishing. It is good that the newspaper notices that the rebels are largely comprised of “political Islamists inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood and others who want an Islamic-influenced legal code.” But why, even now, can one get away with saying “Islamic-influenced”? For many years, they have made it clear that they seek a total Islamic (in their interpretation) state. It is the precise equivalent of describing Chinese Communists more than sixty years ago, as they approached victory in their country’s civil war, as “agrarian reformers.”

This story also parallels the much larger-scale debate about the Boston bombings. There’s a long piece in the New York Times about the Boston bombers; the lede gives the flavor of its argument:

It was a blow the immigrant boxer could not withstand: after capturing his second consecutive title as the Golden Gloves heavyweight champion of New England in 2010, Tamerlan Anzorovich Tsarnaev, 23, was barred from the national Tournament of Champions because he was not a United States citizen.

The title of the piece is “A Battered Dream, Then a Violent Path.” In other words, Tamerlan Tsarnaev was not allowed to win a boxing championship because he wasn’t a U.S. citizen. Blocked by bad treatment from America, he became more Islamic and turned to terrorism.

Of course, it is vital to develop an accurate picture of the terrorists’ background and to explain the factors providing a personal motivation. On the other hand, it is something quite different to suggest that if the United States was nicer to Muslims and perhaps gave people citizenship more easily, there would not have been terrorism in Boston.

Why is this fundamentally dishonest premise being presented in most of the public debate? Because the voices enhanced by control over the most powerful microphones focus in on the political theme they want to push, excluding other factors in the context of their topic.

Where to begin? The article includes a photo of the future terrorist as a baby in Dagestan with his parents and his uncle. His uncle is wearing a Russian army uniform. Note: in the photo he is a baby, but Tamerlan Tsarnaev first entered the United States at age 16. Isn’t he more a product of Russian than of U.S. conditions? After all, his family was involved in a conflict against the Russian state; he and his brother were largely shaped by that environment and by the struggle there.

But the authors cannot focus on this issue. Why not? Well, obviously they want to blame America first, but also there is a big land mine there. Pointing out that immigrants — legal or otherwise — may bring with them hatred, grievances, and cultural formations inimical to America makes a point in the immigration debate which would be the exact opposite of what they want aired.

Pages: 1 2 3 | 27 Comments»

In order to download our books for free:

1.      Please go to: http://www.gloria-center.org/pt_free_books/.

 2.      Select the book you want & click on the PDF icon under download formats.

 3.      Open it & then right-click click save as.

 4.      Alternately, you can click on the title of the book, and then select the PDF icon at the top for the full book or download individual chapters (for those books that this feature is available).

In addition, our books are also available for free download on Smashwords in different e-book formats including Kindle & others:  Simply click on the title and you should see a list of available download formats.

  If you are interested in reading more about Syria, you’re welcome to read my book The Truth About Syria online or download it for free.

 If you are interested in reading more about Egypt and radical Islamist movements, you’re welcome to read my book Islamic Fundamentalists in Egyptian Politics online or download it for free.

 If you are interested in reading more about the Arab-Israeli conflict, current regional situation you’re welcome to read my book Tragedy of the Middle East online or download it for free.

 If you are interested in reading more about the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, you’re welcome to read my book The Arab States and the Palestine Conflict online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about the politics and warfare in the Persian Gulf area you’re welcome to read my book Cauldron of Turmoil online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about anti-Americanism, you’re welcome to read my book Hating America – A History online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about Turkey’s history—during World War Two–you’re welcome to read my book Istanbul Intrigues online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about moderate movements in the Arab world and their radical enemies you’re welcome to read my book The Long War for Freedom-The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about how dictatorships work and how that system has dramatically changed  you’re welcome to read my book Modern Dictators-Third World Coupmakers, Strongmen, and Populist Tyrants  online for free.

If you are interested in reading more about the history of U.S.-Iran relations and the Iranian revolution you’re welcome to read my book Paved with Good Intentions: The American Experience and Iran online or download it for free..

If you are interested in reading more about U.S. foreign policy and its history, you’re welcome to read my book Secrets of State: The State Department and the Struggle Over U.S Foreign Policy online or download it for free.

If you are interested in reading more about Jewish history, you’re welcome to read my book Assimilation and Its Discontents online or download it for free.

 If you are interested in reading more about why studying our personal genealogies is so important to understand our own lives and my grandparents’ town of Dolhinov you’re welcome to read my book Children of Dolhinov: Our Ancestors and Ourselves  online or download it for free.

Consider this quotation:

“Israeli pessimism seems largely if not entirely unwarranted. It seems based on an extraordinary lack of understanding of what happened in the Arab world in the last year and a half. Rather than girding their loins for the fifth, sixth, seventh Israeli-Arab wars, tThe Israelis might examine more carefully than they seem to have done so far the alternative of a peaceful accommodation with the Arabs.”

This is not a reference to the “Arab Spring.” No, it’s from a dispatch sent from the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia, January 9, 1975. It concluded that the lack of peace in the Arab-Israeli conflict was Israel’s fault. That dispatch could be published — as we will see in a moment—word for word today, 38 years later, with just as little accuracy. The dispatch reflects the unshakable premise — well, from time to time it does decline or disappear for a while — that the Arab side really wants peace, that Israel is not so much threatened but paranoid, that Israel doesn’t think enough about making peace, and that conditions in the Arab world demonstrate that peace is possible or even imminent.

What was happening at that point in time? The PLO was energetically pursuing terrorism, including deliberate operations against Israeli civilians, and openly declaring that it would never make peace with Israel and that if it got a West Bank-Gaza Palestinian state it would use that as a springboard for wiping out the remainder of Israel. Lebanon was a country where the PLO could operate with complete freedom of action, controlling the south and launching cross-border attacks whenever it pleased. Syria and Iraq were ruled by radical Ba’thist regimes dedicated to Israel’s destruction and sponsoring terrorism. Egypt was about to be engaged by Israel in secret negotiations while constant behind-the-scenes discussions were being held by Israel with Jordan.

Yes, in Egypt President Anwar al-Sadat was thinking about the usefulness of peace with Israel as a solution to Egypt’s woes. But let’s also remember that after he made peace, Egypt was isolated by every other Arab states and denounced by them (and the PLO). And of course Sadat was assassinated. And of course while the peace treaty survived, much of it wasn’t implemented. Of course, though Israel did seize the opportunity of making peace with Egypt at the price of material concessions.

The PLO only took about two decades more and being on the verge of extinction before it agreed to negotiate. And then it broke its commitments and rejected a two-state solution.

And what was the name of the supposedly hard-line, closed minded prime minister of Israel at that time who just refused to take the obvious steps that would have allegedly brought peace? Answer: Yitzhak Rabin.

A serious paradigm would understand that for deep-seated structural reasons the Middle East was not on the verge of comprehensive peace then and the same applies to today.

Now the Washington Post has published an editorial titled, “John Kerry’s efforts in Middle East could lay groundwork for success.”  Yes, once again we are on the verge of progress! Yet in a real way the editorial is realistic. The success predicted for Kerry merely maintains the status quo of not having peace. Expectations have been considerably lowered yet the fiction must be maintained that peace is almost at hand and thus this issue should be a very high priority for U.S. diplomacy.

The editorial begins by saying that, yes, a U.S. obsession with the Arab-Israel conflict today seems strange with other issues seeming to be more serious:

“Syria’s civil war… gets worse every day. So does Egypt’s domestic political and economic turmoil. The terrorists who assaulted the U.S. Consulate in Libya have yet to be corralled; Iraq is on the verge of splitting into sectarian pieces; negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program are going nowhere.”

You foolish little people who lack the gigantic brains and profound wisdom of such geniuses who live thousands of miles away from the deadly consequences of their political positions. Because despite the fact that the “peace process”:

“Has proved resistant to the diplomacy of President Obama and numberless previous secretaries of state, but also is not, for now, the source of any of the fires raging across the region.”

And both sides, the editorial continues, put forward preconditions — Abbas “deftly,” since he must be praised even for blocking progress toward peace in a move that he’s been doing for years.

And yet, there’s supposedly something brilliant in what Kerry is doing:

“In pursuing a new peace process in spite of the leaders’ resistance, Mr. Kerry is making an assumption that Mr. Obama has rejected elsewhere in the region: that by leading from the front, the United States can force events and impose solutions. If his goal is a final agreement on Palestinian statehood, he has almost no chance for success.”

Ah, so the goal of peacemaking isn’t to make peace?

“”The initiative could still prove useful, if it is carefully crafted. Encouragingly, Mr. Kerry is beginning with an economic initiative, what he described as `specific steps that we could take to . . . expedite the goal of economic growth in the West Bank.’ He is talking to Mr. Netanyahu about Mr. Abbas’s objective of prisoner releases and to Mr. Abbas about refraining from further action at the United Nations targeting Israel. He appears to have persuaded Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan to postpone a potentially provocative visit to the Gaza Strip.”

This is absurd.

First, Israel has put forward the goal of economic growth in the West Bank for years. It’s nothing new and indeed there has been for several years the appearance of growth which has now once again fallen apart. Economic development always founders because no one in their right mind would invest in an economy ruled by corrupt kleptocrats who keep insisting that they are about to go to war again. In 2009 it was common to claim that economic growth was raising living standards in the West Bank. Now, however, everyone knows that the economy is doing badly. Why? Because the flow of aid has been reduced. In other words, “economic growth” is purely due to sending in money to pay a regime over-heavy with security forces, plus a bit of speculative construction of luxury apartments.

Second, Netanyahu had rejected the prisoner releases already. There have been literally dozens of such releases previously during the last two decades with no lasting effect whatsoever, except that many of the released prisoners return to terrorist activities.

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Common Sense About the Syrian Mess

April 25th, 2013 - 7:33 am

“I know what the world thinks of us, we are Communists, and of course I have said very clearly that we are not Communists; very clearly.”              –Fidel Castro, 1959

U.S. policy toward Syria has changed but it is too late. A senior State Department official said at the meeting just concluded of opposition groups: “We have to help the moderates, people like [Chief of Staff of the Free Syrian Army] Salim Idris….” This is what I proposed two years ago but I have to admit that I almost never saw anyone else who suggested that the strategy should be to help the non-Islamists with money, weapons, and diplomatic support.

Unlike Castro, the Islamists in Syria never lied about their goals and ideologies. Now the Islamists are far more powerful and well-armed than anyone else, courtesy of U.S. policy. Oh, and there’s one more problem. Many or most of the Free Syrian Army’s troops, that is the supposed non- or anti-Islamist alternative, are also Muslim Brotherhood supporters.

So what’s there to do with revolutionary Islamists controlling Syria and sooner or later, though it might take a couple of years, taking over the whole country or at least gaining recognition as the legitimate government of Syria while the regime holds out in the northwest of the country?

That’s okay, says the main line of U.S. policy. We don’t care if they are America-hating fanatics who want to impose Sharia, suppress or even massacre Christians, and commit genocide against Jews. Just as long as they aren’t affiliated with al-Qaida.

Beyond this, there’s mostly wishful thinking. Compare these statements by a Turkish diplomat and a Saudi newspaper:

“Once Assad is gone, al-Qaeda won’t stay long in Syria.”

“We know that there are radical forces like [al-Qaida] but do not overestimate them.”

But it seems impossible to get the mainstream debate to recognize the fact that the problem is not merely al-Qaida but other radical Salafists and another Muslim Brotherhood government.

What kind of situation would another Egypt bring about in the Middle East?

hat will happen within Syria which historically is a far more radical entity (for historical, political culture, and geopolitical reasons) than Egypt?

What will be the fate of all those modern-oriented women, liberals, Alawites, Christians, Druze, and Kurds?

Going beyond the largely worthless current debate on Syria let’s look ahead into the seemingly inevitable future. We can reasonably assume that the Assad regime might last another year or two but it will either retreat to the Alawite areas by then or have fallen totally. There is by the way another possibility. Rebels make advances in Damascus, then use the opportunity to announce the establishment of a provisional government there. The United States and other countries then recognize it–despite Assad’s continuing hold on much of the country–as the legitimate government of Syria.

Whatever happens, there will be a Muslim Brotherhood regime in Syria and Obama will support it. The Salafis will not rule but they will kill people, intimidate non- or anti-Islamist forces, and probably be the main force in various local areas of the country.

Many conservatives and Republicans favor more intervention which means in practice working even harder to install an Islamist regime in Syria. That’s a terrible idea. With few exceptions they never seem to grasp the point about supporting the non-Islamist forces and not just the Syrian rebels in general as if they were glorious freedom fighters.
A few other people favor supporting the Assad dictatorship to keep the Islamists out of power. This is another terrible idea. Aside for morality and the impossibility of saving Assad, no Western country is going to adopt such a policy. Whatever its past, the Assad regime had in effect become an Islamist regime, a Shia Islamist regime, and its fall will weaken Iran and Hizballah.
The problem, of course, is that its fall will also strengthen  the Sunni Islamists. According to estimates by my colleague, Dr. Jonathan Spyer:
–Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, has about 6,000 fighters.
–The Syrian Islamic Front (dominated by Ahrar al-Sham) has about 13,000 fighters.
–The Syrian Islamic Liberation Front, which seems close to the Muslim Brotherhood, (including the Farouq Brigade of Homs; Suqour al-Sham of Idleb, and Tawhid Brigade of Aleppo) has about 40,000 fighters. It is not clear whether these groups are under the Brotherhood’s discipline. If they aren’t then the situation is even worse since that means the Salafist forces are stronger than they seem.
Even this numerical advantage understates the Brotherhood’s power because its political leadership is centralized while Jabhat al-Nusra is spread thinly across the country and the Syrian Islamic Front is a loose coalition of different Salafist groups.
But the Brotherhood won’t suppress even the most extremist ones, that is al-Qaida, as long as they don’t attack the new central government and don’t disrupt the country too much. The Brotherhood will let them attack, massacre, and bully the country’s Alawites, Christians, Druze, political moderates, and non-Islamist women.
The too-late proposed Western strategy is to strengthen non-Islamist forces in Syria and to create safe zones, for minorities and to keep out Salafists, near Syria’s borders. This looks good on paper but it won’t work for several reasons.
First, the non-Islamist forces are too weak to hold any territory. his might be influenced by the successful creation of such a zone for the Kurds in northern Iraq. Yet the Iraqi Kurds were a well-armed, coherent ethnic group that was sufficiently united and had favorable terrain. These conditions don’t apply to Syria, or at least only for Syrian Kurds and Druze, not for the Sunni Muslim majority or Christian minority. The setting up of safe zones on, say, the Jordanian and Israeli borders will simply be an attractive target for Salafists who will mobilize popular support by branding the “moderates” as the traitorous tools of infidels and attacking them. Non-Islamist forces are also at this point unreliable and some of those groups touted as “moderates” seem to be closer to the Brotherhood.
And then we will once again be told that the Islamists and lots of Muslims only hates the West because it invades their countries and intervenes against them. Incidentally, don’t be surprised when after the revolution the victorious Islamists will claim that the West was behind the old dictatorship–a lie–and that not giving the rebels even more weapons was a Western stab in the back that further merits hatred.
Given these realities, then, the task of Western policy will be based on the understanding that they will not be able to shape events in Syria. It could have been different if a proper policy had been followed earlier.
The best that can be done now would be to help Christians either to survive or flee; to assist Druze and Kurds protect themselves by strengthening the former’s militia and the latter’s autonomy; and even, as a purely humanitarian strategy if Assad has fallen, to help Alawite civilians not guilty of war crimes to escape.  Otherwise, thousands of people could be massacred.
There are other important issues that simply are not being fully discussed:
Will Western countries allow those in threat of being killed to be granted political asylum for thousands of Druze, Christians, Alawites, and moderate Sunni Arabs? Or will they insist that everything is great in Syria and even push back the refugees who have already left the country?
Will Western countries correct the disastrous policy toward Egypt and actually help moderate Sunni Arabs, or at least anti-Islamist Sunni Arabs, to organize for elections and political influence so that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists don’t steamroller over them?
Will Western countries give additional help to Israel, having helped to bring it a new and more energetic enemy on its border, or Jordan, a moderate regime that the West usually takes for granted?
Will Western countries do a better job than in Libya about collecting advanced weapons so they aren’t use for terrorism against Syria’s own people, a Syrian Kurdish autonomous zone, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq?
People will continue to debate increased Western intervention but–and U.S. policymakers now partly understand this–to deal with the strategic disaster that’s been created, in part by them.

If you are interested in reading more about Syria, you’re welcome to read my book The Truth About Syria online or download it for free.

Political leaders and government officials are paid for trying to avoid, mitigate, or manage damage to their countries. Experts and journalists are supposed to warn about them and explain the dangers. This isn’t happening. Instead, language is being used to define threats down to the minimum by speaking of revolutionary, anti-American, antisemitic forces quite willing to use terrorism when it suits them into moderates.

The latest step toward making it impossible to understand the world is a decision of the Associated Press, the world’s biggest source of news for English-language mass media. AP’s new step, however, does not launder all Islamism nor does it outlaw the word “Islamism.”

We should remember, however, that use of this word–the description of the world’s most important revolutionary movement today–is already outlawed not only for U.S. government officials in public but also in their internal writing.) In AP’s case, you can still use the word Islamism but not in connection with saying that this is intrinsically a bad, extremist or dangerous thing. So it becomes a broad label like liberal, conservative, social democratic, Christian democratic, etc. In other words, Islamism is defined not as a radical threat but as a full-spectrum movement.

What the AP’s decision means is a far more limited step. It is defining Islamism as a not necessarily militant, radical, or threatening movement. This is significant though not as bad as the accusation being made that it has gone much further.  What has happened is that the AP has adopted a somewhat more moderate version of Obama policy that there are good Islamists and bad Islamists.

According to the new AP stylebook:

“An advocate or supporter of a political movement that favors reordering government and society in accordance with laws prescribed by Islam. Do not use as a synonym for Islamic fighters, militants, extremists or radicals, who may or may not be Islamists. Where possible, be specific and use the name of militant affiliations: al-Qaida-linked, Hezbollah, Taliban, etc. Those who view the Quran as a political model encompass a wide range of Muslims, from mainstream politicians to militants known as jihadi.”

I guess if you can get elected to office somewhere that means you can’t be a militant, extremist, or radical. Now this does reflect a basic principle of mainstream thinking in the United States: popularity is inversely proportionate to extremism. To win elections you must move to the center. Without getting into how this applies to U.S. politics, that is usually but by no means always true in democratic countries. In the Arabic-speaking Middle East, the truth has been the exact opposite for decades: radicalism wins out. When there are no attractive, real solutions available, demagoguery almost always triumphs.

There are three subtle points about the AP’s decision here that might be easily missed.

First, the AP has taken a political stance of defining the Muslim Brotherhood leadership as “mainstream politicians.” Who else might be a mainstream politician among Islamists? The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Tunisia, where the organization has captured political positions through elections? Or perhaps the Brotherhood cadre of Hamas or in Syria? Maybe it refers to Hizballah’s politicians who now run Lebanon? Well, the best job of camouflage has come from Turkey but then that government–precisely because it seems moderate–has rarely been properly branded as Islamist.

Now it is quite true that not all Islamist movements favor violent or terrorist tactics, at least at this moment. Yet that is not what the Stylebook dictates. It would be absolutely reasonable to say that the word Islamist should not be a synonym for terrorist.

Note the wording about,”reordering government and society in accordance with laws prescribed by Islam.” No. An Islamist is not someone who wants to do that anymore than a democratic socialist or a liberal is a Communist. If you want to make society a bit more Islamic, you’re not an Islamist. The leaders of Iraq or the Palestinian Authority, for example, are not called Islamists.

The Islamist is a revolutionary who wants to reorder government and society in accordance with the laws—all or almost all of them—prescribed by Islam as they interpret it, that is in a militant, extremist, and radical manner. That might sound like a detail but it is well known in the Muslim-majority world that there is a huge difference between using Islam as a basis for law and as the basis for law. By the AP’s new definition, the Mubarak regime in Egypt, the Fatah regime in the Palestinian Authority, and the Assad regime in Syria—all considered to be relatively secular—are Islamist.

Second, this dictates the idea of “moderate Islamists” is valid. Would one say “moderate Communists,” or “moderate fascists?”

Consider the four synonyms for which Islamism is being outlawed:

–Fighters. This is the most reasonable idea since it links up to the point that not all Islamists (currently) follow the path of armed struggle. I can accept that.

–Militant. Well, yes of course they are militants. They seek revolutionary transformations of their societies. They believe they are following the word of Allah and thus cannot compromise on any major principles. Of course, they are militant, despite any tactical mirages they spin forth. Notice that militant is confined to al-Qaida, Hizbollah, and the Taliban style groups. Yet a militant can easily be someone who isn’t using violence. They are, however, seeking the fundamental transformation of their societies and nothing less is acceptable.

–Extremist. Is someone who wants to impose their interpretation of Sharia on the entire society, and a very extremist interpretation of Sharia at that, an extremist? In that sentence I am not getting into the argument of whether Sharia must innately be extremist, but that’s certainly true for the Islamists’ version. (If you have any doubt of that ask a genuinely non-Islamist Muslim.)

Radical—see above.

Remember that getting a lot of votes does not make someone moderate. If you want to say that radical Islamists are within the mainstream of their own societies, that’s fine but the implication then is that the societies themselves are militant, extremist, and radical. AP’s decision, reflecting a mistaken Western view today, is that anyone who is popular cannot be radical.

Third, this stance confuses radicalism/extremism/militancy with actual armed struggle. If you have already seized state power you don’t need to wage armed struggle any more. Such activities are now called state repression.

Fourth, the reclassification of Islamism is integrally related to the misrepresentation of Islamist ideology and goals. For example, Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood leaders, including those in official positions, daily evince bloodthirsty antisemitism including the explicit goal of genocide against Jews in general and wiping Israel off the map. Yet these people are now to be seen as “mainstream politicians” who are not radical, militant, or extremist?

When I used the term “revolutionary Islamism” or “radical Islamism” I sought to emphasize the inherent nature of the movement, not to suggest that there was also a separate moderate Islamism. Otherwise you get into the ridiculous game of speaking about the “armed” wing or “political” wing of Hamas or Hizballah or Fatah. There is no such real distinction, only a division of labor.

What AP is doing is a smokescreen to play the game of a fictional “moderate Islamism” whose “mainstream politicians” constitute just another non-radical, non-militant, non-extremist movement that just happens to believe women are chattel, Christians have no real rights, Jews are to be wiped out, and America is to be destroyed.

Thus, “Islamism” is not really a threat so what does it matter if it takes over more countries?

But okay I accept the AP challenge. When you talk about the Muslim Brotherhood and other similar parties and politicians, will you dare to label them as radical, extremist, or militant Islamists? That is allowed by your new Stylebook. But will you do it?

And when the Muslim Brotherhood destroys all but the thinnest semblance of democratic practices in Egypt or when it presides over ethnic-religious massacres in Syria will AP alter its Stylebook?

In its first test, the Boston terror attack, the AP did a lot better than some, including its competitor Reuters. One of its articles explained:

“Evidence mounted that Tsarnaev had embraced a radical, anti-American strain of Islam. Family members blamed the influence of a Muslim convert, known only to the family as Misha, for steering him toward a strict type of Islam [emphases added].” I have no problem with these formulations, though they used the word Islam (a religion) rather than Islamism (a political doctrine).  Not all Islam is radical and anti-American, though all too much of it is today. But, yes, all of Islamism is radical and anti-American. I