Get PJ Media on your Apple

Rubin Reports

Why Israel Will Be More Secure in 2014 than in 2013

December 4th, 2013 - 2:09 pm

Hamas has “been boosting [its] activity in Gaza and creating something we haven’t seen so far: Cells in the West Bank too. Yet intelligence experts note that the immediate level of danger is not high” and this is making Hamas and Fatah competitors. Remember the first and second intifadas were based on Hamas-Fatah unity.

As for the Palestinian Authority, it too has a problem. It likes thinking about concessions–prisoner releases–but won’t make any concessions. Thus, they may be drawn out, but talks will ultimately fail.

Seventh, of course, the fact that the Iranian bomb also threatens Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states is consistent, although it should not be overestimated.

And yet, here, too, there are several potential short-term advantages (no thanks to Obama and Kerry) for Israel–not that there would be any direct cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states.

First, by ending sanctions and making billions of dollars for Iran and Western companies, this at least delays Iranian nuclear weapons in the short-term.

“This is where the good news ends. The bad news is led by the estimate that Iran will likely not be willing, as part of the permanent agreement in six months, to completely abandon the abilities allowing the future production of a nuclear weapon. Simply put, Ali Khamenei’s Iran aspires to remain a threshold country even if it pays a heavy price for it.”

Iran is going to get nuclear arms anyway, as the West will not oppose Tehran and will not support an Israeli attack on Iran. Of course, despite any deal and short-term delay in Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, this will embolden Iran in the long-run. This is very serious.

But I would also suggest that this deal will fall apart sooner. Iran will never implement it, and once this becomes clear, it will only be a question of what the U.S. administration decides to do as a result.

Also, I would suggest that Iran never intended to use nuclear weapons but rather wished to have them as defensive weapons against Israel, so it could use them to pursue regional aggression by conventional means.

Iran’s desire to obtain nuclear weapons is a move to guarantee the regime’s survival, a sort of insurance policy. Iranians may still agree to a settlement, pulling them several years away from the bomb.

Thus, ultimately, the plans are doing more harm to the United States than to Israel. The United States has empowered Russia and rebuilt the Russia-Egypt alliance after 50 years. It has also smashed the U.S.-Egypt and U.S.-Saudi alliance, deepened suspicion between Arabs and Turks, and empowered an Iran that will betray them. In addition, Syria may eventually be turned over to Iran.

“This agenda terrifies Arab rulers from Saudi Arabia to Egypt ….especially in light of Washington’s helplessness and unreliable policy. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are giving Egypt $100 million a month to buy food and so that it will not have to depend on Washington.”

The goal of U.S. voters and politicians is to think there is a brilliant success in the Middle East, while, in fact, it is a disastrous failure. And this is much like the pattern prevailing elsewhere with the Obama administration policies.

<- Prev  Page 2 of 2   View as Single Page

Comments are closed.

Top Rated Comments   
How nice, we are safe on Monday but are brutally murdered on Wednesday.
I hope Netanyahu does something nasty on Tuesday.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
I read this good article as further evidence that we Americans should isolate and contain all of Muslim West/Central Asia and consider Israel the same way as we considered anti-communist West Europe during the Cold War, using and reinforcing Netanyahu's retaining wall as a semi-permanent, well fortified barrier, with the Iron Dome overhead.

Doesn't anyone remember the Cold War and see the stark similarities between Soviet and Muslim tactics and strategies of infiltration and subversion? Why do we waste time, our lives and endless bales of money on trying to fathom the exquisite differences between these uniformly nasty and butchering Muslim factions? Let them eat each other, limb by limb.

Compounding this, too many of our busy-busy "advisers" nowadays have the attention spans of squirrels and birds.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Thanks for the reality based summation of the Israeli point of view on this complex regional situation. I have no patience for more postmodern constructs like moderate Morsis, and Rouhanis, and democratic Islamists.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (23)
All Comments   (23)
Sort: Newest Oldest Top Rated
My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do>>>>>>>>>>>> www.jobs35.com
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
When I started reading Mr. Levin's points to support his claim, I fully expected to find the following: Israel now has no reason to believe that America [i.e. the Obama administration] is their friend and cannot count on America for anything.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
The very good citizens of the United States apparently elected this gang to power... TWICE.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
And beyond 2014? Sure, the current hostile regimes surrounding Israel have their conventional armies preoccupied with internal conflicts. But once things are settled, then what? I'm not particularly optimistic for the long term future.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
There is also the matter of the Canadian businessman who was arrested, because he insulted Abbas.

As long as Abbas does himself no favours, Israel benefits, because nature abhors a vacuum.

http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/12/05/as-kerry-visits-jerusalem-pa-police-arrest-outspoken-businessman-for-calling-for-abbass-downfall/

46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
I think the author is correct. The WSJ made the same point. The locals have every reason to cooperate on this one.

Further the Saudis own the nucs is Pakistan and could get them back real quick, but I don't think they like that posture much.

Perhaps something good will come of it, and better it will keep Obama from meddling in issue where he has neither talent nor interest.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
How nice, we are safe on Monday but are brutally murdered on Wednesday.
I hope Netanyahu does something nasty on Tuesday.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
I'm hoping the Israeli's will cut a deal with the Saudis, to attack Iran's soft target energy industry, putting all Iran on foot and in the dark, ending Iran's export earnings, cutting off support to terrorists, shutting down their nuclear program, and killing the Ayatollahs internal support due to lack of funding to pay everyone off.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
There's no way, absolutely no way, that this hopelessly complex Muslim problem of ours will ever be sensibly addressed by this current grossly inept "administration". It's simply beyond the capabilities of any of them.....think of this poseur Susan Rice for starters.

This whole "admistration" all so tragically and dangerously inept.....BUT...it's politically correct among our new voter-demographic.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
I had to read the last sentence twice just to make sure I hadn’t gone dyslexic.

Who but the most benighted Obama worshiper believes that US Mideast policy and our foreign policy in general is a “brilliant success?” If such a creature exists I suggest that PJ readers stay well away from them and immediately call 911.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
1 2 Next View All