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Rubin Reports

The Druze

The Druze have a tougher time since they do not have a strategic boundary with a friendly country, as do the Kurds. Nevertheless, the Druze are at a historical turning point. They have given their loyalty to the Syrian regime, with the Golani Druze showing special devotion fueled largely by fear that some day the Golan would be returned to Syria.

Now, however, they see the Assad regime in trouble. At this point their loyalty must be questioned. Would a Sunni Islamist regime be so kind to them? On the one hand, the Druze have served not with the rebels, but with the regime. Second, when all is said and done the Druze are infidels, and even worse, apostates, as they were Muslims centuries ago. Of course, the Druze still in Syria will claim their devotion to the Sunni Islamist regime in the hope of not being massacred.

Druze from the Golan have asked Israeli authorities about bringing in refugees from Syria. Might persecuted Druze take Israeli citizenship and take the step of joining their fate as individuals or collectively with Israel, as their cousins across the border did in 1948?

Iran

Obviously, if the regime loses in Syria that will weaken Iran. But there’s something more here — if Iran loses the civil war, they lose any chance of Tehran bidding for Arab hegemony, which would be futile because the split between Sunni and Shia is so bloody and passionate.

Of course, if Iran wins the bitterness has the same effect. The dominant conflict in the region is now the Sunni-Shia one.

With Middle East hegemony out of Iran’s reach, Iran has less reason to threaten Israel or to consider using nuclear weapons against it. Why would Tehran do so when it will not impress the Arabs anyway, and while Tehran is in the middle of an all-out battle with the Sunni Arabs?

The Christians

While Israel only has about a two percent Christian minority (about 150,000 people), there seems to be some change. A priest and a young woman have spoken for support despite harassment, and an Arab Christian party is forming. These will probably not catch on with large numbers of people, but with the conflict against Israel being joined by the conflict against Christian Arabs — including real intimidation of Christians on the West Bank by Muslims — this must have some effect.

This has been added to by a war on Christians in Egypt (Copts will be big targets in the coming Islamist insurgency, and the new government won’t provide much protection), Syria, Iraq, and the Gaza Strip. Where else do Christians have a safe haven in he region besides Israel?

Finally, Syria has done something momentous in regional terms. It has broken the myth of the “Israel card,” or of “linkage,” the idea that the “Arab-Israeli conflict” (perhaps we should start putting it in quotation marks) is the prime problem, passionate priority, and always the key to solving the Middle East.You can’t still argue that an Arab ruler can make political capital by blaming Israel, or that solving the Arab-Israeli or Israel-Palestinian conflict will fix everything in the region.

Given the peculiarities of Western diplomacy, this doesn’t seem to put too much of a dent in “linkage” — lots of people in the West believe this idea. Surely it must be fewer, though still too widespread due to misinformation, diplomatic interests, and misunderstanding of the Middle East.

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Fighting The Trans-Pacific Partnership Nile Bowie James Corbett July 15, 2013

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yk6VOJHGoM&feature=player_embedded
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
I have been warning about this since these events began-

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/169923#.UeNhu-CUAy4

The problem with academics is they are a self perpetuating lot. They only listen to someone if the speaker has a pile of letters after the last name.

Assad has always been the better choice. Another historic opportunity lost.

If not for Putin Syria would have an Al Qaida regime today.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
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1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Israel is the bedrock of all related global, political disputes in the world. Apart from it are outright ' side-dishes.' One expert analysis of world affairs never divorces from the divine attachment of Israel with the Holy Writ and these are emerging as finally true and accurate vis-a-vis pure speculations or assumptions. Be blessed, Prof Barry, your writings are guided from Above.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
As a regular reader of Barry's column I find this post like switching a stock chart from a daily view to a yearly view - suddenly how the region is doing long term pops out at the viewer. Barry does a quick take on many of the vexed issues - it isn't a post using detailed argument as it is a quick overview of what he feels are critical changes in key areas - how events are effecting the Kurds, the Druze, the Christians and of course Israel. I hope he will develop the assertion that relations with Egypt will improve. He has been pretty prescient on Egypt over the past year! Likewise the Kurds as a potential ally of Israel. They seem to be the main group who are getting their act together economically. But the big thing you see on the long term chart is that the Arabs Muslims are in a steep downtrend. They are killing each other and not taking care of themselves - agriculture is in trouble in both Egypt and Syria. The solution is better agriculture, not killing each other. If the Egyptian military was threatening to bomb the Ethiopian Nile dam I would see them as rational actors. As in getting it that less water means less food. So Barry has brought it to our attention that is is a time of major change in the strategic relations among the regional players. Perhaps one of those shatter belts in history where realties are fluid and realign. .
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Yes, the nonsense about linkage should be dead and buried, but it won't be.

Nevertheless, the situation is far from being in Israel's 'favor'. Consider the following: http://adinakutnicki.com/2013/07/07/egypts-syrias-civil-wars-brotherhoodsalafistsal-qaeda-in-the-forefront-christians-beheaded-the-cancer-of-islam-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/

While it is the case that the Egyptian military has little interest - for the foreseeable future - to go up against Israel, it is also true that the Sinai has NEVER been more explosive and dangerous, as much for Israel as Egypt. As to Syria, the influx of Iranian forces has never been more acute, and they now abut Israel's border!

NOT a good outcome.

Adina Kutnicki, Israel http://adinakutnicki.com/about/
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
NIce to not have to worry about the Christians and other minorities in Syria. Assad is a rat but he does not out to exterminate the ancient Christian community.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Looking forward to your forecast on the various Bedouin wildcard 'activities'.

As for Saudi Arabia re: Iran? The Saudis have Pakistan, and now Egypt.
Besides, less than 50% of Iran's population are Persian Shi'a. No other country has more minority populations (Kurds, Azeris, Baluchis, various Arab or Sunni minoriteis) officially seeking self-determination/autonomy.

The Druze should get a state, become Andorra off the Golan...
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
I highly doubt Iran is going to stop their efforts to produce nuclear weapons simply because they've lost Syria - an outcome that may or may not manifest itself. Not one mention in this article about Saudi Arabia which I find interesting. The Saudis continue to wring their hands over the prospects of Iran getting nukes yet sit on their asses and do nothing. They are better positioned geographically than Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities - they have good reasons and the means to conduct the mission yet all they do is look to the USA. Do they have the guts to do the deed? I doubt it. As before they'll let anyone - including Israel - do the dirty work. It would not surprise me if the Obama administration gave or sold bunker busting bombs to the Saudis if they requested them. The political fallout to the Saudis for attacking Iranian nuclear facilities would be much less severe than it would be for the USA or Israel IMO.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Thanks for the post Mr. Rubin and for framing everything that happens in the region in terms of Israel's interests. It is interesting that you share with Frank Gaffney and Daniel Pipes the perspective that the best outcome in Syria is that the two sides just continue killing each other. Mr. Pipes has even suggested that the US policy should be to provide arms to whichever side is losing in order to maximize casualties. Real politik? I say moral relativism, the curse of the modern age.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Thanks for the post Mr. Rubin and for framing everything that happens in the region in terms of Israel's interests.

Because of course in America you never look at things happening in the world and try to evaluate them in terms of their influence on American interests. There was not even one sentence in the American media in recent years wondering how exactly the Middle East upheaval might influence American regional interests, not even one. And your foreign policy in your entire history was never based, not even for one moment, on your own interests because you never ever think of yourselves. No, it was always 100% altruistic and self-sacrificial, always meant to only benefit others. Only an Israeli can be so selfish as to try and figure how revolutions next door, across both the southern and northern borders, and the rise and fall of fanatical regimes bent on the destruction of Israel and the genocide of the Jews might influence Israel. How dare that evil Israeli fear death?!

And I second Buddy Larsen regarding your use of the term 'moral relativism'. Moral relativism means that since there is no way to objectively prove the validity of a moral principle, since morality is subjective to the human psyche, its validity or invalidity is relative to different ethical systems and their axioms. For instance, genocide is not objectively bad or good because there is no way to objectively validate a moral judgement; Rather genocide is bad from a contemporary Western moral perspective, but exterminating the Jews is good from an Islamic moral perspective since Muhammad said (according to Sahih Bukhari or Sahih Muslim hadith collection) that Judgement Day will not come until the Muslims fight the Jews and kill them, so the genocide of the Jews is a sign that the end of times in nigh, plus a prerequisite for its arrival. You can find this quote in Hamas charter among other places, alongside the quote from Hassan al-Banna (founder of the Muslim Brotherhood to which Hamas belongs) that "Israel exists and will continue to exist until Islam obliterates it like it obliterated others before it".

But really for Barry Rubin to prefer that the Iranian Shiite fanatics and the Al Qaida and Muslim Brotherhood Sunni fanatics fight each other rather than Israel is too much! He should prefer that his own children be killed by Hizaballah rockets or al-Qaida terrorist attack. Shame on you Rubin!
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Mr. Western, I think you need to brush up on your definition of 'moral relativism'. I agree it is a curse, but when the two sides at war in Syria are both self-dedicated, regarding the Jewish people, to an Islamized agenda of the Third Reich, when the underlying issue of the commentary you fault as morally relative amounts to a yay or nay on a living-memory genocide, then what exactly would the curative moral certainty look like?
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
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