A Turning Point in Egypt: Not on Direction But on the Speed of Islamist Transformation
The logical conclusion: the Brotherhood and Salafists will increasingly send violent vigilantes into the street to defend their government. They want to ensure that the constitution is adopted on December 15 — whether the opposition boycotts the vote is irrelevant to them — and afterward the Brotherhood regime can operate under that constitution. (As this article predicted, on December 11 gunmen opened fire on anti-government demonstrators in Tahrir Square, wounding nine.)
Then, the opposition will be told: “You’ve lost, accept it, you have no choice. And besides: we are acting legally under this constitution that the people accepted.”
President Morsi will have to decide whether to try to override the courts and to reinstate the previously elected parliament (almost 75 percent Islamist), or to make a concession and allow elections for a new parliament (which might be only 55-60 percent Islamist).
Thus, the key issues are how high the level of violence will rise, and whether the current conflicts will make the regime speed up or slow down the fundamental transformation of Egypt into a Sharia state in which Islamic law is strictly interpreted.
This article lives in a different world from the real one.
The opposition will not be oppressed; who would do that? There are no forces in Egypt to control tens of thousands of people in the streets and the army has shown they have no interest in doing so. Those are regular folks out there. The people don’t go, those they protest against do.
There will not be a civil war in Egypt – period.
The third option is the only one that might happen; the regime falls.
As for Mubarak, the army didn’t defend him because they are not set up for crowd control and they weren’t about to fire on their own people.
The army did not overthrow Mubarak – that regime did what it could to restore order and Mubarak had to go.
The opposition was not Muslim Brotherhood-led. In what world did that occur during or after the revolution? They won some elections but on the street they have no presence compared to their own opposition. In every single instance since the revolution of an Islamist protest in Cairo they have had to bus in people. That’s why there have been so few such protests compared to the more secular ones.
As for signs the army may act – there ARE signs. They have stated they will not allow these protests to continue and they don’t mean taking a side opposed to the protesters but Morsi. On Sunday morning air space over Cairo was closed for 2 hours while jets roared overhead. Consider that a message. They flew overhead during the opening days of the revolution too.
Morsi is not a dictator. Would he like to be one? Probably. Can he be? No. The guy had to leave his own Presidential palace and rescind his declaration. Tomorrow yet another big protest is planned and Fri. will be worse.
The Salafis and MB are outnumbered on the street. That’s a fact. They cannot win a game of street violence. The MB HQ in Tahir was torched the other day.
Normally your articles are pretty accurate but this one is a strike out.
Hope youre health is improving and you are feeling better Mr. Rubin.
The Jews from Arab countries had been scattered through the Arab world for millenia. The Palestinian 1947-67 “Nakba” resulted in the flight/expulsion of 650,000 Arabs from Palestine and the flight expulsion of 850,000 Jews from the Arab world. The defeat of the five Arab armies invading the new Zionist state resulted in the revenge expulsion of the Jews from Arab countries and the expropriation of their lands reported to be five times the size of Israel
Ron Prosor mentioned this in his April 24 UN speech. Why is this issue not pressed as frequently as the Palestinian Arab issue? It’s implied in both the British Parliament and US Congress 2008 bills that all references to the Palestinian issues should include a reference to the Jewish issue as well.
Clearly no resolution to the regional issues can follow unless both matters are on the negotiation table and they clearly are not.
Fail Burton
Why are you so certain that there will not be a civil war??
If the MB extends and solidifies its hold on the state apparatus (and as time progresses it is plausible to presume they will) it is conceivable and indeed likely that it will seek to eliminate those that it can not co-opt or manipulate with goodies, i.e.the LIBERALS!!!
My question to Prof Rubin is this: Have the liberal factions (the real liberal factions, our natural allies) been properly quantified??? are they 10%???? 15%??????
Kind regards
Liberal
How big a role could “violent vigilantes” play? Do they have access to arms?
Meanwhile – what is happening with the IMF loan?
Loan??
Could it be that the IMF granted the loan on the premise that it would somehow help the non radicals???? Perhaps they supposed that by alleviating the economic malaise of the arab street = ++++ radicalization, which would help the brotherhood???? don’t know.
The cashula???? Probably in the hands of: corrupt generales + brotherhood loonie tunes, i suppose.
CHAVA,
the “violent vigilantes” ARE IN POWER, mate.(sorry for the capital letters…it is not meant in a rude manner)
there are other violent vigilantes seeking state power, to be sure.
but vigilantes all the same.
our friends, our natural allies, i fear, are the minority that deserves to be helped (for some reason im am thinking of Orwell’s efforts against Franco!!! another weak minded intellectual that succumbed to dictatorial charms!!!)
when i look at egypt, i think, as a liberal: man, what a shitty situation…!! poor guys and gals!!! they must be going through hell right now!!
best wishes,
Liberal
correction:
they, IMF, presumed that economic malaise would further radicalization (and thus help the brotherhood)
and conceded the loan in order to alleviate economic malaise and reduce the potential of radicalization.
apologies for my English.
Liberal Greetings
Liberal
The American taxpayer is providing Morsi and his foul Brotherhood bedfellows with a bunch of new F-16′s
Makes my day.
If the army wants stability and the Morsi gov’t wants stability, then there is no need to fear another Egyptian/Israel war inthe near future. Both organizations understand that such a roll of the iron dice could end both organizations and unleash chaos in the streets of cairo. I suspect the key to stability in Eygpt will be the Morsi gov’t backing way off of the army’s economic interests.
I dont think there is a need to fear an Arab-Israeli war in the near future – say 4-5 years (hopefully a lot longer). But the Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood and their Hamas brothers certainly don’t accept a Jewish state in the Middle East
and they aren’t pragmatists like Sadat or the Hashemite monarchy in Jordan.
Assad will be overthrown in Syria which will probably descend into civil war.
Islamists may come to power there (and has been suggested by Prof Rubin). There
is unrest in Jordan and this could lead to the overthrow of King Abdullah and the rise to power of the Brotherhood.
For as long as Muslim Obama is US president, Islamists will receive loans to tickle their butts, in the hope to tickle their butts and act appeased. But they won´t be appeased, when granted a city, they will demand the country, when favored for a loan, they will takeover IMF. Careful there, these people´s id and greed is untameable. They are not envious of the pleasures and sophistication of a convenient western lifestyle, they want to reign over the world. They started among themselves, watch closely, they´ll pull the ground where you stand. They are not the kind to sympathize with, for they will turn again and rend you.
If the status quo is untenable and unsustainable, then how did it become the status quo. After all things continue until they can’t. while granting the Palestinians a state may be helpful in the future. It will be a disaster right now. One which will lead to a war that will engulf the oil fields of the mid east and the suez canal, europe’s transshipment point to the far east. It is a pity that the Eutopists are pushing for the establishment of a terrorist state that will be the cause of their next economic crisis.
“Thus, the key issues are how high the level of violence will rise, and whether the current conflicts will make the regime speed up or slow down the fundamental transformation of Egypt into a Sharia state in which Islamic law is strictly interpreted.”
All one has to do is take a look at Gaza and see where this is going.