What Happened in Egypt
Current Egyptian Strategic Assessment (End of Mubarak Regime) Main threat: Revolutionary Islamism in the form of Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists, al-Qaida, and Hizballah.
MAIN THREAT (End 2012): ISRAEL, MODERATE ARAB STATES.
Competing local leadership 2011: Shia Islamism in form of Iran-led alliance, including Syria and Hizballah
Competing local leadership 2012: COMPETING SHIA ISLAMISTS IN HIZBALLAH, SYRIAN REGIME, IRAN, TO SOME EXTENT IN IRAQ AND BAHRAIN
– Arab allies 2011: Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Egypt wanted to help against Iran and Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood.
ARAB ALLIES 2012: HAMAS, MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN JORDAN, SYRIA, TUNISIA, LIBYA, ETC. Will get along with Saudis if give money and don’t interfere.
– Israel 2011: Dislikes but understands it shares common interests in battling Islamists of both Brotherhood-Hamas and Iran-Syria varieties as well as al-Qaida. Keep Hamas under control to avoid war and violence along border.
ISRAEL 2012: WIPE OFF MAP POSSIBLY INCLUDING WAR BUT CERTAINLY SUBVERSION AND TERRORISM CAN BE USED AGAINST IT; ALL ISLAMIST AND ARAB FORCES SHOULD BE MOBILIZED; AND ANY NEGOTIATED SOLUTION BLOCKED
Overall posture 2011: Minimize Egypt’s role in regional affairs to be left alone and focus on survival and development.
Overall posture 2012: Maximize Egypt’s internal transformation into an Islamist state and change of all institutions including army. Take leadership over Gaza. Tunisia. If possible Libya can be senior partner to Syrian Islamist regime. Brush aside Turkish influence. Minimize Iranian influence in Arab and Sunni spheres.
U.S. 2011: Though will use anti-American demagoguery periodically, the alliance with America is important as source of military, economic, and strategic support. They have common friends, enemies, and common goals, seek regional stability and defeat of radical forces.
U.S. 2012: Get along with U.S. if low-cost and can get aid easily, but don’t let Washington get away with interfering with regime goals. Reduce U.S. influence in Egypt and demonize those friendly to America. Undercut U.S.-Israel cooperation. Defy U.S. on Gaza.
If all this isn’t the Apocalypse, it is a damned good imitation of it, is it not?
(I don’t necessarily mean “The End Times” as understood by evangelical/fundamentalist Protestants in the U.S., though perhaps it is; I myself, however, mean a more generic, massive, hideous, titanic disaster of, shall we say, Biblical proportions.)
When the lakes and rivers of blood start to flow, though, will anyone remember that we have one Baraq Hussein Obama to thank for the awful horror of it?
An Préachán
PS Dear Mr. Rubin, I’m thankful to the Lord that you seem to be well, and are still writing for us.
always quick to blame Obama. What, tell us, would Mitt do just now? more talk talk in vague generalities? Do you expect Obama to declare war on Egy[pt at the moment. Grow up.
In short, dark forces have been unleashed. War is coming.
Barry knows exactly what is going to happen. Pay heed.
My blog commentary is also rife with this issue.
Just as a foretaste, please see http://www.adinakutnicki.com -
‘Barack Hussein Obama (Formally) Set To Embrace Egypt’s (Brotherhood) President Morsi…How Did This Happen?’
and, ‘The Muslim Mafia aka The Brotherhood & Their Overarching Plans..What It Means For America’s Future’
and,’Connecting The Brotherhood Dots…Courtesy of the Commander-in-Chief and His Islamic Outreach’ .
Also, please read at http://www.adinakutnicki.com – ‘Miluim On The Border’.
It is a very personal piece, it is by my son who performs IDF Reserve duty at the Egyptian border. It was originally featured at The Jerusalem Post.
As is said, it is ‘straight from the horses’ mouth’…..
Silver lining 1: The Israelis recognize the the impending threat and are being proactive in counteruing it ie new brigades, border fence. thus no october suprise.
Silver lining 2: Islamism ruins all it touches. Egypt will reduce itself further and further. The quality of the the threat will diminish ( Caveat: Quantity has a quality all of its own)
Silver lining 3:Like with the Iranian populace, Islam will lose it’s appeal. Hopefully there will be enough Copts left to take advantage.
Silver lining 4: With Egypt just across a smal body of water, the EU will not be able to bury it’s head in the sand if the Muslim brotherhood of Egypt tries to go nuclear.
So, now we can say that what Carter did with with Persia, Obama did with Egypt (and Tunisia and Libya…).
Thank you for the synthetic overview.
Terrible.
When Israel retakes Sinai, how will it deal with all the miscreants who have set uop shop there?
What a waste it was, returning it. All for naught. All the blood and treaure, spent righteously . . . .
Spot-on. Any agreements with Muslims come with an expiration date. Moral: Don ‘t expect agreements to last, therefore, make none.
As alway Prof. Rubin: Refuah Shlemah.
No – it wasnt a waste to give back the Sinai – wihout Egypt, the Arab countries were unable to unite against us in war and we had 30 years of
peace. And yes, the coldest peace is better than war. And if we had held onto the Sinai, this would not have prevented Mubarak from being overthrown and Islamists taking power.
Of course now I fear that Egypt will break the peace treaty – but it wont be so easy and it wont happen overnight.
For vital strategic reasons, Israel MUST re-take the Sinai. It must also drive the terrorists from the Sinai and make it a home for the millions of Coptic refugees coming out of Egypt. For good measure: 1) the Israelis must set up nuclear power plants to provide fresh water and electricty for their new Coptic allies and 2) allow them to be a prosperous buffer state between the Islamist dictators of Egypt and the Jews of Israel.
Barry and Israel,relax and enjoy the fruit of many years of devotion and hard work on Israel’s part,all the goodwill gestures and capitulation has encouraged your neighbors far and wide.
What we are seeing with Egypt and with Iran are all part of the promised US Road Map peace dividend. The nation has waited so long for appeasement and retreat to pay off ,well now it’s paying off.
Enjoy the dividend,compliments of Washington for your many years of great loyalty to ‘the agenda.’
Peace with Egypt was good while it lasted. It gave Israel the opportunities to become a modern country with an (almost) First World economy. We’ll be back to the good ole 1970′s stratocracy, with the differences that a larger population will afford a bit less service time per reservist, and that offshore oil n’gas will probably alleviate the tax burden, IF the wells can be protected from enemy attacks. Not clear how we’ll achieve that with our amateur Navy…
This was all easily foreseen by anyone willing to look at it honestly.
The narrative of the Arab Spring ushering in a free and democratic middle east was a fantasy spun by the msm.
Dr. Malthus is on a clowd somewhere with a Cheshire grin on his face.
New Egypt won’t be able to feed it’s people, either.
This is because democracy means something entirely different to leftists. Remember, East Germany was “democratic”. Hitlery Clinton and Brackobama love “democracy” because they see it as an elected counsel they can control, like a democrat-heavy senate. They believe autocracy is the answer because one single intellectual who has all the ideas can make the world “equal” and “fair” for all the rest. All the rest being us, the proles and workers.
The issue is control.
Leftists want control. Control of the nation, control of the money, the markets, the media and you and me.
That’s what Hitlery meant when she said, “This is was democracy looks like”. And…empirically speaking, maybe it does…or did…in ancient ROME or Greece.
Ben Franklin et al gave us a REPUBLIC and that means the politicians serve at the pleasure of the people not a bunch of elites talking down to the masses telling us we’re lazy or stupid and that we need more fiber in our diets or less sugar. Think of how our government has evolved before our very eyes.
Why is it that elected officials in DC ride around in limos? Get their checks for lunch paid for by the people? Have so much privilege and room to stretch out? Because the fools that we Americans are, are in love with celebrities and our natural good nature pampers them and elevates them to undeserved royalty status, something the founders were very much opposed to.
But now, again, we have in situ the genesis of yet another dictatorship during captain wet-pants’ tenure sitting in the president’s chair. He and Hitlery are very much to blame for it. They have all but abandoned Israel and the writing is on the wall for any muslim entity to feel its oats. The US couldn’t put on a greater display of weakness if it skinned its knee and sat on the curb crying.
I am proud to be an American but I am ashamed of our government
I hear what you’re saying.
And by the way, I’m Canadian and Conservative and I have much the same frustration with our government as you have with yours.
The larger point that I was implicitly trying to make is that all these puppet regimes in the middle east have been working against us for years.
They take our aid money and then they do what they want to do contrary to our interests.
Well, now the bandaid has been ripped off and they can’t blame us anymore for being under our thumb.
They are on their own.
And whatever form of government they decide to follow they can’t blame us anymore.
It’s about time, too.
Can’t feed yourselves?
Too bad.
Maybe your corrupt religion and dysfunctional culture will save you.
Or maybe you might finally unnerstan.
Obama has overridden Congress and is sending “no strings” U.S. tax money to the Egyptian (Moslem Brotherhoos) military. This is on the grounds of “national security”, when our security depends on not emboldening the middle east’s Islamists. This smacks of dictatorship and the endagering of America!
Just in case we needed clarification about the true meaning of “Forward”!
Prof. Rubin is one of the best interpreters of the politics of the middle east. When most so called analysts were exuberantly proclaimimg the arrival of liberal democratic politics in the middle east, Prof. Rubin provided us with sobering and realistic insights…i wish he had been my Professor!
Dear Prof, what does the future hold??
Will the mb monopolise all state and military power in egypt? What will happen to our truest allies, the liberal minorities that are “less inclined toward sectarianism???”
Very best wishes!
Liberal
“Saad Eddin Ibrahim, arguably the Arab world’s leading sociologist and certainly the leading advocate of a liberal-Islamist alliance against the old Arab military regimes, has now totally changed sides, warning that the Islamists want to hijack power and establish dictatorships. He pleads for Westerners to wake up.”
Pity no Egyptians were saying this while Mubarak was being overthrown. Then, everything was sunshine and roses. The “Arab Spring” was going to usher in a new age of democracy in Egypt. Fat chance. Yet another nation that has never, ever, had a real democratic form of government reverting back to a dictatorship. Whether it’s a monarch, or a general, or a secular dictator, or a religious tyrant in a turban, these countries are a lost cause when it comes to democracy. One man, one vote, one time. Hamas should have taught people like Obama and Clinton that lesson. But no, to liberals, hope springs eternal in the arab and Muslim world. Pity that they’re always wrong.
What we have to worry about now is when the real pogrom against the Christians will begin in Egypt. Thousands could be slaughtered, and soon, if the world does not stop this. But it won’t, especially since Obama and Clinton were the fools who all but guaranteed that the Muslim Brotherhood would take over in Egypt. The Middle East just got a lot more dangerous and not many people in this country are talking about it. We ignore this part of the world at our own peril.
Libertyship46:
“What we have to worry about now is when the real pogrom against the Christians will begin in Egypt.”
That is my nightmare too.
SofS Clinton should be asked if the Obama adminstration will preside over a genocide in Egypt like her husband’s did in Rwanda.
What we have to worry about now is when the real pogrom against the Christians will begin in the USA.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/17/who-does-the-government-intend-to-shoot
Leninism.
The disaster that is Egypt should rightly be blamed on the Egyptians and no one else. The same should be said for Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya and on and on for every Moslem country throughout the Middle Eastern world. These people have been allowed to accrue titanic amounts of money to their countries for the past fifty years due to no more of a claim than their pitching their tents on desert sand. The western world has allowed these countries to keep the profits of their oil rather than just expropriating it outright (which would have happened a hundred years ago), given that the Arabs had no ability to develop or defend the fields on their own. Yet, what has the world gotten for this “investment” in Arab development but neverending tyranny, bloodshed, murder and mayhem. At this juncture in history, it would be sweet justice if the Israelis finally made glass parking lots of every Moslem population center in the Middle East. As Randy Newman once sang, “They all hate us anyhow, so let’s drop the big one now.”
Big Picture: Eygpt is no longer a threat. Contain and watch.
I don’t understand why anyone acts surprised that Egypt is full of Muslims who don’t like Israel?
That’s not going to change even if full voting rights are in place, new Presidents and members of Parliament elected. Obama won 53-47, a close vote. He appointed a racist to the DOJ who’s turned it into an arm of the NAACP. Obama might lose, Morsi might lose next time. Egypt is not a dictatorship, just a Muslim-style democracy non-Muslims don’t like. The problem, as ever, is that Egypt is full of Muslims. These Chicken Little articles are almost hysterical. The writing of the Constitution took a break for Ramadan. Ramadan’s ending. They’re getting back to work, bickering and arguing about it.
I think you are wrong on this one. Egypt is lost to Islamists for our lifetimes.
They will have future elections like Hamas has elections.
How lovely to open my computer and see a new column from Prof Rubin.
Unfortunately, the subject matter is not so lovely. I wish I could believe that things will work out differently than he predicts, but things are happening as he predicted – only faster.
I am no longer able to get “The Arabist” English blog of the liberal Egyptian
Issander El Amrani and I wonder if it is being blocked in some way.
Prof Rubin – please take care of yourself and keep writing your columns.
The only way to explain the Obama Presidency is as a Moslem Brotherhood agent.
Liberty Ship
“But no, to liberals, hope springs eternal in the arab and Muslim world. Pity that they’re always wrong.”
It is true that liberals tend to idealise an get it wrong (but, to be honest, for ex., ” bringing democracy” to Iraq was an equally idealistic proposition, one that could have been invented by a liberal!!!!)
When the Arab Spring began, I believed that the facebook generation would be a catalyst for change. Then, as I read informed analysis (Prof Rubin’s, for example) I realised that this f-generation was a minority and that its political clout was minimal (and its capacity to change things was and is minimal as well), despite the noise it made.
In other words, being right or wrong in political analysis has very little to do with being a liberal or a conservative.
Liberal realists got it right when they pointed out the absurdity of bringing democracy to iraq.
Conservative/right wing realists got it right (recently) when they pointed out that the Arab spring would not turn the arab world into a western-like liberal democracy.
So, who where the ones that got it right consistently????
THE REALISTS.
Maybe realism could be a bridge between liberal and conservative idealists. Idealism is dangerous. I much prefer realists.
I fear that you may be right: Christians, liberals and facebookers have a harsh future ahead of them in the middle east.
Very sinister future.
Long Live Realism!!
Liberal
sorry
correction:
Maybe realism could be a bridge between liberals and conservatives.
No bridges are necessary for idealists. They are in la-la land.
sorry. man, i cant type correctly today. my apologies.
So, who were the ones that got it right consistently????
THE REALISTS.
Barry Said: “The U.S. government did not lift a finger to help.”
Why would the US help pay Israel’s energy bill ? WTF ?
Israel has tons of natural gas but cant get its shit together to get it out of the ground.
Mike,
It was not suggested that the US pay for Israel’s energy bill, if I recall.
What was suggested was that the US, as a long standing ally, could have put a bit of diplomatic pressure on the Pharaonic Egyptians so that they do not stop providing energy to Israel.
Perhaps you should be aware of the following: if your take on matters is only guided by material/geopolitical interests, you should perhaps revisit your interpretation: the US benefits a great deal from its alliance with Israel.
Its quite simple really: The best allies the US has are GB and Israel. Can you calculate the value of an excellent ally in material terms????
Mike
do you measure friendships in dollars and cents?
dont do that. not very sensible.
one that does that is left with neither friends nor money.
i do not mean to offend you
its just a fact of life, in my opinion