Muslim Brotherhood Wins Presidency; Egyptian-Islamist/Hamas Jihad Against Israel (Apparently) Begins
So far this year, 280 rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel. This has prompted no international concern or action. The new fence along the Egypt-Israel border is mostly complete, but due to difficult terrain the last portion will only be finished late this year.
At any rate, we are now at the beginning of Egypt’s involvement, directly or indirectly, in a new wave of terrorist assault on Israel. If the Muslim Brotherhood takes over Egypt — a likelihood made less probable perhaps by the military’s dissolution of parliament — this offensive will enjoy official support. Even if the army remains in control, the Brotherhood and Salafists will use their considerable assets to back this new insurgency war.
The ultimate scenario would be if Hamas decided to renew a large-scale offensive against Israel from the Gaza Strip using rockets, mortars, and attempted cross-border attacks. Egyptian Islamists would send volunteers and money. The Egyptian army would not be scrupulous in stopping the smuggling of weapons, terrorists, and money across the border. As Egyptian fighters are killed in the Gaza Strip, the hysteria in Egypt would escalate.
In such a scenario, the army would also allow Hamas to have military bases and headquarters on Egyptian territory — where Israel could not attack them. Indeed, this is already happening. And the Egypt-Israel border would not be protected from cross-border attacks.
A most serious scenario would be if Egypt itself was dragged (under an army regime) or went willingly (under a Brotherhood one) to war with Israel.
At the same time, however, that’s a longer-term perspective. The army is almost certain to remain in power for the next year. The Brotherhood is not taking over Egypt at this point. That is the effect of the military’s coup: the president has no power.
If I were to speculate — and forgive me if I’m wrong on this point — here’s how I see the timetable:
– The army stays in power and announces a parliamentary election near the end of this year or early 2013.
– After the election, if it is held, the parliament would be given six months to write a new constitution. That puts us into mid-2013.
– If there is a lot of violence and conflict, the military might at some point suspend elections, and here we are back in 1952 with a “new” military regime in power for many years. I don’t see the Islamists defeating the army in a battle.
– Might there be a deal in which the Brotherhood gets limited governing power in return for doing what the army wants on key issues? Maybe.
Of course, everything here is unprecedented and unpredictable.
Where is the U.S. government in all of this? Insisting that the Egyptian military turn power over to a civilian government, which until last week would have been a Brotherhood government. Washington is merely a distant observer, and one continuing to insist on Muslim Brotherhood moderation despite that group’s extremist history and actions. The policy choice taken by Obama is to issue statements supporting democracy and to view the Brotherhood as a force that can be co-opted and moderated. The mass media generally follows this lead in setting the narrative.
A different president would understand that the Islamists are the enemy of America, and would support the military in trying to limit their power. This distinction matters, big time. It helps determine not only the fate of U.S. interests, but also the future of 80 million Egyptians, Israel’s security, and the likelihood of further upheavals and wars in the Middle East.
Very interesting
Dr. Rubin: Anyone taking bets on Israel’s invading Sinai in the next ten years? Peace treaties with Muslims are very temporary. The only guarantee is a large swath of land to separate Muslims from non-Muslims.
That’s a very long term perspective. If there would be a war involving Egypt of course that would be very likely. I want to make it clear that everyone who is well-informed thinks Egypt will not abrogate the treaty, even if it cheats on it. Note, however, that the army is almost certain to remain in power for the next year. The Brotherhood is not taking over Egypt at this point. That is the effect of the military’s coup. The president has no power.
is to abrogate the treaty while pretending not to abrogate the treaty
those who think Egypt will not abrogate the treaty are not well-informed
they just think and hope that Egypt won’t do it, but they don’t know
Dr. Rubin: I believe this might be the chance for Israel to take back the entire Sinai and NOT give it back – nice big buffer;-) Good luck – I pray for Israel every day
Did they plan it in the white house since they visited it 6 times!
Keep supporting 0b0z0 liberal jews in this country a la harvey weinstein! If you don’t think this is a coordinated effort from the white house, you’re not thinking!
Can one assume the Egyptian military is rational and self-interested? I don’t see what the Egyptian military hopes to gain by an all out war with Israel. It would be a one on one fight, Syria is preoccupied, Iraq has problems, Jordan seems content with they way things are, and Iran is too far away. Israel is well armed and any war would be for her own existence, which isn’t a motive on the Egyptian side. Besides, a war would attract Islamists in Syria and Iraq, I don’t think the military wants those types in Egypt.
It is important for Israel to find out exactly who is behind these attacks and why. The Negev Bedouin have no love for Egypt or Israel. Hamas is a client in smuggling weapons. They Bedouin are armed to the teeth and Egypt is taking a great risk if they do not crack down on them.
The problem is that Israel cannot chase them or conduct operations beyond the border as they could in Gaza. It is possible that neither the Brotherhood or Hamas had anything to do with this one. The fence is a broblem for smuggling of people and contraband into Israel by the Bedouin and they might be attacking for that reason.
Ynet military writer Ron Ben Yishai argues that the Bedouin of the Sinai, along with some of their counterparts on the Israeli side, are fomenting military action *because* the security fence on the Egypt/Israel border is hindering their smuggling activity, and that’s costing them money. So the more they can disrupt the construction, the longer their activities can continue. Given the ongoing trafficking in drugs, women, African infiltrators and weapons, this fence is years overdue.
Waiting will be disastrous for Israel. A strike would no longer be preemptive it seems. Defend now, but know that the radical islamists will line up to die, as we all know, for nothing.
I don’t see Israel hesitating to launch counter-attacks against terrorists even if they’re on Egyptian territory. If the MB or Hamas hopes to use it as an excuse for the Egyptian army to bring up troops they are sadly mistaken.
This is the age of the internet and instant information. No one outside the middle east will have sympathy for terrorists using Egypt to attack Israel or for Egypt not cracking down on them. If Egypt tries to use a crackdown on terrorists as an excuse to bring in troops capable of waging larger war the peace treaty does not allow good luck with that too.
If Egypt gets involved all they will accomplish is punishing and further radicalizing themselves. The tourist places least affected by the revolution so far will dry up. Those resorts on the Red Sea have army money in them. Egypt can’t gain a single thing from agitating against Israel other than puffing themselves up to no purpose. As with Gaza, public sympathies will enter into any violence done between the two countries and Egypt doesn’t have leg to stand on. The idea that 6.5 million Jews are some kind of threat to over 80 million Egyptians is laughable.
“Might there be a deal in which the Brotherhood gets limited governing power in return for doing what the army wants on key issues? Maybe.”
For some reason I don’t think so. Mubarak and the generals were always bigtime enemies of the Muslim Brotherhood. People today tend to forget that Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s No.2 man in al Qaeda and maybe its leader right now, came from Egypt and was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Zawahiri was even jailed by the government for a while. So the generals know how dangerous these people can be and probably are not about to give them any power at all. Once you give the Muslim Brotherhood a little power, nothing will satisfy them unless they take over the whole country. I think the Army is going to keep the Muslim Brotherhood on a very short leash. The big question is, will there be major riots and major social upheavel started by the Muslim Brotherhood aimed at overthrowing the government? Something tells me that the Egyptians have used up their “arab Spring” and I doubt the Army is about to let them have another.
Isn’t Egypt broke? Outta money, AND food? They can’t feed their own people? Or I should say, will soon be outta food AND the money to pay for more?
In such a situation, in desperation, they (some combo of MB, Salafists, and some element of the military somewhere or other), might go for an attack on Israel to distract their own masses from their incredibly desperate situation. They can’t wait till the masses are actually starving.
Sooner rather than later, in other words.
The military might have been wiser to let the elected government collapse of its own ineptitude. Then they could have been saviors.
An Préachán
I’m thinking along similar lines. Given the rapid fall in Egypt’s foreign reserves and the impact that will have on food imports (which David Goldman has written about), I find it difficult to imagine Egypt surviving even a single year without a major crisis. How will *any* Egyptian government deal with that?
I’m afraid that we have to face the fact that when it comes to Egypt we can only hope for an outcome that is “least bad.” I can’t imagine that the Muslim Brotherhood is going to stand for a military government unless there is substantial power-sharing. A military government will undoubtedly look favorably on Hamas as a way of quelling dissension brought on by their rule within Egypt itself.
Whatever happens Israel is in for a very bad time. The question is when it will happen and what will be the U.S. response? There is clearly no sort of “moral persuasion” nor conventional diplomatic maneuver that can have any effect on this situaition.
The MB will “stand” whatever the army asks them to stand. If the MB had that type of traction they’d be in power now, something that will not happen in the foreseeable future since they don’t have that kind of support and the other revolutionaries would never stand still afterwards for a naked power grab of that sort even if they did.
People outside of Egypt give the MB credit for having more muscle than they actually do. They’re definitely a major player but both the parliamentary and presidential elections can be seen as much as not voting for a thing as voting for the thing itself. Plenty of people voted for Mursi simply because they disliked him less and there are a lot of big “M” but also small “m” Muslims in Egypt. The small “m’s” simply distrust the MB less than the army and secularists. Think of the small “m’s” as the independents who will waver back and forth in the coming years as their options for candidates increases.
These particular muslim terrorists seemed quite inept. Conducting a strike like this while wearing a suicide vest is incomprehensible. What sh#t for brains put them up to this?
The Israeli killed being an Arab Israeli – but the MB doesn’t care. They didn’t even get to kill a JOO.
Netanyahu should have the Mossad show a picture of Aswan to the MB and tell them:
“That’s a nice dam you got there. It’d be a shame if something happened to it.”
Exceptionally well said. It might be one thing for the pukes in Hamas and Hezbollah to engage in asymmetrical warfare – but when nation states do it, the rules change.
This just in: the State Department wants the Egyptian military to hand over power to the MB or lose US aid.
Someone else comment on this; I do not know what to say.
Should there be more attacks, what would prevent Israel from announcing a policy to attack any terrorists thought to be threatening Israel on the Egyptian side of the border? What incentives does the Egyptian army now have to prevent would be terrorists from attacking Israel across the border?
when are we going to stop sending Egypt the billions of dollars we send them? that money is predicated on them keeping the treaty with Israel. what if they don’t?
if it was any other president, I would assume that that money would be stopped–war seems to be the direction we’re going in. with this president, tho, he can just make a unilateral decision to fund them anyway, like he did when his SecState overrode Congress and gave millions to the Palestinians.
One plausible alternative which Mr. Rubin did not suggest is that more bullets will fly inside of Egypt as the country devolves into a Islamist/Military civil war than will ever be fired at Israel. It’s easier to shoot at people you think you have a chance of defeating. And fighting each other is a pastime at which Islamic peoples have become good at.
I think the peace treaty over time (and almost certainly sooner rather than later) gets altogether repudiated as a practical matter. This means that Sinai will be , one way or the other, in creeping fashion or of a sudden, re-militarized by Egypt (maybe even under guise of preventing terror assaults on Israel). In this realm of reality, the portents of war are probably already sown. I hate to see this, let alone say as much. But Israel’s strategic equation has changed for the worse and future historians will associate responsibility for the weakening of Israel’s position with the election of Barack Hussein Obama.
The Egyptian Revolution that caused the downfall of Muvarak was a sign that the Muslims Brotherhood was involved and had a lot to gain by having a so called Democratic Presidential Election. Israel is in dire need of a defense plan against his potential enemies ( including Egypt’s new Government ). We need a new American Government very soon that Israel can rely on it. Obama’s Government seems very weak on the eyes of the Arab Nations, therefore, unless
there is change, the Middle East will become a War Zone with that brave little Israel Nation in the middle of it.
Russian Cargo Ship with Arms for Syria Found off Scotland
http://rusnavy.com/news/navy/index.php?ELEMENT_ID=15369
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