IF MURSI BECOMES PRESIDENT (winning second round run-off):
Remember that he and the Brotherhood are now not even trying to hide their extremism, openly demanding an immediate Sharia state and a Caliphate. In fact, I’d suggest they could have done much better in the first round if they had continued to pretend more moderation. Also Mursi was not an attractive candidate personally. Remember he was not the Brotherhood’s first choice but stepped in at the last moment when someone else was disqualified.
This would set off a crisis that will dominate the region for a decade or two. This would be a catastrophe equal to and perhaps greater than the Iranian revolution. No exaggeration. If there isn’t a war with Israel within three years (Hamas backed by Egypt or even involving Egypt) it would be a miracle.
Note that what’s most important is not the presidency in isolation but:
- Brotherhood control over parliament and president and writing constitution.
- Brotherhood triumphalism, which we have seen repeatedly, belief in victory leading to arrogance and more extremism.
There will be panic. Christians and liberals will start packing their bags.