There does not appear to be the slightest chance of this happening. Why? I almost wish that I could say it was due to Western fear of an Islamist takeover of Syria. In fact, however, the U.S. government has actually helped the Islamists there. The real reason is fear of making another Middle East commitment, along with a strange radical ideology in the West which makes it more eager to help anti-Western forces than friendly ones.
Obviously, no one could seriously propose sending Western forces to Syria. Yet enforcing a no-flight zone would be a relatively easy, low-cost effort that might help break the regime that has been the main Arab sponsor of terrorism (always exceeding Iraq in that respect) during the last forty years, and also the Arab government that has done the most to sabotage any Arab-Israeli negotiated settlement. Again though, there isn’t any chance of this happening, certainly not under an Obama administration. Indeed, Russia is selling Syria advanced warplanes so the regime can attack the opposition more effectively! So much for a no-fly zone.
What might break President Bashar al-Assad’s regime? Other than his being assassinated, the only likely development would be if some Syrian generals decided that the rest of the elite can only survive by eliminating him and his family. Even then, though, they would probably try to continue the regime under a different name, offering the opposition a face-saving compromise of making some concessions in exchange for an end to the revolt. This is an offer the opposition, unless it is really desperate by that point, might well reject as insufficient.
Nevertheless, the prospects are quite likely that Assad will be in power when the year ends. If the deadlock goes on without apparent end, the revolution might die down as it did in Iran. Syria will then be another case to show that revolutions usually succeed only when the elite is divided and loses its nerve, rather than being an inevitably victorious response to oppression.
It will also show that in the Middle East only pro-Western regimes (including the temporarily “cooperative” Libyan dictatorship) get overthrown. In contrast, anti-Western governments prosper, often with Western protection or help. Go figure.
Syria’s heterogeneous nature, in which minorities collectively comprise a quarter of the population, is the regime’s strongest card. They side with it because despite all of its repressiveness, it guarantees their lives and status. All of which they would surely lose under a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood Islamist regime. And looking at what happened to Christians in Iraq and what is happening to the Copts in Egypt, better the devil they know in the Assad regime than in the devil they don’t know in the Syrian opposition. The last thing they want is to find out if Islamists would dominate an alternative regime. That is why Assad seems certain to survive in power this year.
“…the Alawite elite and its closest allies among the Sunni Arab Muslims will lose their wealth and power.”
This begs the question of whether the regime in Egypt actually did ever fall and what would’ve happened if Mubarak had been in power only as long as Assad and at the same age.
You question as to whether the regime in Egypt actually fell will be answered shortly. What happens with the army determines what happens to Egypt.
And if Assad falls, who replaces him?
We have no friends in Syria.
Both sides hate the USA, both
sides dream of strangling the
last Israeli child with his
mother’s guts.
Let ‘em butcher each other
to their heart’s content.
We should be airlifting
arms to BOTH sides.
OK, if a no fly zone would do it may I make an off the wall suggestion? Israel should impose a unilateral no fly zone, say starting with a surprise attack taking out the Syrian air force’s fixed wing assets–legitimate it as a humanitarian exercise:that should stop the sniveling from the left and the Europeans who just did Libya. Should be a piece of cake if Israel can do Iran’s nuke assets. If Turkey won’t do it, then set up a Free Syria safe haven zone off the Golan heights for the insurgents, enforced by the Israeli no fly zone and Israeli artillery. Outfit the Syrian freedom fighters with training and weapons and go for it. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. It would certainly rattle some cages and make life confusing for many of the current political actors in the region. I can just see the Syrian and Iranian government sniveling to the security council over Israeli aggression, and getting almost zero empathy, except from the usual peanut gallery. Instead of Israel being stuck in the reactive rut, Israel would be proactive in forcing the Syrian revolution to a successful conclusion, and could thus viewed positively in the immediate region, at least for a while.
Who is sending the majority tribe out to protest, and have themselves murdered after Friday prayers to the god of the Kaabba?
Syria is now part of the Arab spring. Look how the blood flows.
It is actually the Arab Winter.
Ron Paul has the best policy of all; we should stay out of the middle east and its endless wars and violence. Let the arabs be arabs and let us be ourselves. The only one who cares about the middle east passionately is Hilary Clinton who is an long time arabists and who has filled the American State department with Islamists.
“Once upon a time . . . .” The reality is we can’t! Our lifestyle depends on interacting with the rest of the world, and the Middle East is part of that world.
Such Hogwash.
Saudi Arabia does as it pleases since President Nixon gave foreign control of the US dollar by creating the Petro Dollar system, relying on Saudi Liquidity pools to support ARAMCO transactions, which then provide trade liquidity for settlements of petroleum and commodity contracts. This is the foundation for the US dollar today.
Each US president since has been forced to walk hand in hand with Saudi King, bow to them, and generally kiss their arse…Republican and Democrat alike has kowtowed to the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia, from Ford to Obama they have all kissed the ring of Saudi royalty.
In the meantime The House of Saud supports worldwide terrorism, funding Wahhabi terrorist schools with over 100 Billion in the last 50 years..it is no accident terrorists that attacked NYC on 9/11 were Saudi, this was by design and we did nothing. In fact we gathered up and escorted the entire Saudi family out of the USA before the FBI or CIA could gather any intelligence or information regarding the attacks.
There is yet to be a single article on PJM that openly lays out the terror and truth of the House of Saud. Instead there are diversions on Egypt, Syria, Libya…anything but truth.
Saudi Arabia has been pulling geopolitical strings for decades, while people that know better aid and abet the worlds greatest supporter of terrorism.
The West is making all the same mistakes as in 1999 with Yugoslavia and in 2011 in Libya, in supporting the usual Islamic fundamentalist creeps. Christians in Syria are actually terrified that the Western backed Syrian opposition will defeat the government and institute the usual horrid list of disgusting oppressive Koranic laws.
Very true, Arius.
The same goes for the Druze.
Barry, maybe Assad’s regime is also surving because the Iraqi Chaldeans and Assyrians who fled the last U.S.-led regime change don’t want to see the same Muslim Brotherhood-type militais seize power and start beating Christian women for driving and not wearing the veil in Damascus. Talk about a blind spot! I know for a fact old man Assad’s household staff in the early 80s was almost all Christian.
Alex, absolutely right. But don’t you know Russia is still enemy number one because it uses ‘energy as a weapon’ and Putin says nasty things about the U.S. while helping us, whereas the Saudis smile to our faces but stick the knives in our backs?
Judging by Johann’s comment, the Roger Simon/Bryan Preston banning of all Ron Paul sympathizers is not in effect on this thread.
Those calling for the downfall of the evil Syrian regime should be careful what they wish for. After all just look at what has happened to all the left wing moonbat slappy happy hippy projections for “Democratic’ tolerant Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. But Syria is also different as it exemplifies the Sunni/Shia conflict which dominates Islam but which left wing moonbats seem incapable of understanding and which of course Mohammedans never acknowledge either. I mean how can you brag about the size of your CULT and the conversion rates when Islam is split between two diametrically opposed factions who hate each other as much as they hate the Jews. Islam is a Hate and Death CULT and it requires constant bloodletting which is why after there are no Kafirs and Jews to kill they will turn on each other even more violently and belligerently than they do so now. Iran (Shia) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni) are the main focus points for the Shia /Sunni cults and conflict.
Syria has large stockpiles of chemical weapons and the missiles to deliver them. Israel should be prepared to secure or destroy those.
It seems to me that no matter what happens with Assad the result will be increased hostility to Israel as we see now in Egypt. It may be that Syria itself will still not be able to do much about it. Iran however, is already losing influence and the Syrian rebels will not forget that they were opposed by Iran and abandoned by Hamas.
It is a fact of life in the ME that the obvious lesson – that Israel is not the problem, it is in fact a model for your success – has not and will never be learned by the Arab street.
The winner will be Turkey.
You bet, Turkey is already raking in the benefits. It made a huge amount of money sitting on the sidelines during both Gulf wars, selling supplies to both sides. It also took the time to further supress the Kurds while the USA was distracted. Now is stands to win more exports to Syria and buy Syrian products at rock-bottom prices. Turkey already bypasses Western sanctions by trading with Iran. No matter the outcome, this is all a win-win for Turkey.
I believe you assessment is correct for the reasons given. However, I question that, “Syria’s revolution is more democratic-minded than those in Libya or Egypt . .” I suppose you can demonstrate that with objective facts? I also suppose that believing that their majority sect should make the rules is democratic-minded, kind of. Not really!
Arabs killing Arabs – don’t stop darlings, finish each other off – remember: Allah wills it…
Dr. Rubin,
What do you think of the possibility that if the Alawi regime is replaced with a more stringently Islamic Sunni-based one (with inevitable MB and Salafi influences), then not just the Alawi minority but the Christians might very well face reprisals and possibly slaughter?
The Obama’s doctrine has been to tolerate the shiite regime in Iran after the green Mussavi protest against the crooked elections set up by Ahmadinejad in 2009.So Obama ‘s is doing the same with Syria, letting the Alawite ( a branch of shiisme ) kills at leisure the sunni revolt.For this very counter-productive policy ( very anti-western and anti-saudi and also anti-israel) I have only one explanation : american fear,USA total surrender to the goons of Teheran ,fear for the free flow of oil in Hormuz , proactive fear of the coming nuclear toy produced by Teheran with the russian , pakistani, korean-chinese expertise.Every day passing by clearly demonstrates that the Clinton-Panetta-Obama are weak people who will- like Chamberlain- maintain the smokescreen that the situation in the Mideast is under their control until their smokescreen will dissipate with the next republican president. What a sinister joke, what a pitiful america..the wake-up will be painful.
The key quote I got from this article is: “In fact, however, the U.S. government has actually helped the Islamists there.”
Obviously this comes after the tacit US support of Islamic radicals in Egypt and the overt support (by being on the same side in a war!) of Islamic radicals in Libya. Its hard to believe but just 10 years after 9/11 the US has gone from being a victim of Islamic Terrorism to the most energetic supporter of radical Islam in the world.
Agree,and I have seen somewhere this strategy was adopted by Islamists beforehand. Early on in Iraq, after I do not know how much bombing, the US armed forces realized they were being used to settle old scores among rivals. There is the unfortunate fact that Bush pandered to Islam and Obama has plainly made his affinity for Islam known through personnel and policies and of course speeches. The obvious falsehood of US bombing to “protect civilians” in Libya was embraced by the media. I understand those “civilians” somehow had the use of heavy weapons and US airpower (and NATO airpower, where “airpower” is used loosely). How many more weapons and in whose hands they are seems to be unknown for now.
Go figure, indeed!
Brilliant.
There is no such creature as radical Islam unless you are writing about apostates. Following Muhammad maybe radical to us, but the god of the Kaabba demands Muslims follow Muhammad.
What did Muhammad do? Did he murder, and rape while praying to one of the 360 gods at the kaabba?
From what I know, major figures in the Chaldean Church has spoken out in favour of the Assad regime.
Of course, being a religious minority, and even more vulnerable due to their comparatively wealthier status, Syrian Christians like the Chaldeans cannot afford to made into scapegoats for a ruthless regime.
If they had spoken out in opposition to the Assad regime, I’m sure Assad would have screamed about “Western interference” and begun massacres of local Christians.
That is, of course, what is now going to happen if Assad falls, since the Christians have supported him..
Mr. Rubin Please be more patient and leave it to majority Sunny population in Syria,
Frist do not compare this move in Syria with green movement in Iran, in Iran by killing of list than 100 by Mullahs that green movement given up and keeps silent but since the begging in Syria till now more than 8000 have been killed and day by day more peoples joining to appositions groups and believe me they are not going to give up until the Assad regime and his elites will surrender,
Second Turkish government is waiting for the offer from Saudi regime beside if Turkish regime is cares about life of minority Sunny in Iraq that why they do not cares about the majority in Syria? In the end the As card is in the hand of the Turkish PM the man who want be Kamal Abdul Nasser and for the same reason we need to be more patient.
You are repeating the propaganda of the US admin and it’s allies,
Like it or hate it, the Iranian regime is one of the most popular regimes on earth…
the Iranians rejected the American puppet…
They have chosen this system