What’s Hecuba to him, or he to Hecuba,
That he should weep for her? What would he do,
Had he the motive and the cue for passion
That I have? He would drown the stage with tears
And cleave the general ear with horrid speech….
–William Shakespeare, “Hamlet”
Or, in other words, do these writers, policymakers, and “experts” care what happens in the Middle East? War? Bloodshed? Repression? Christians fleeing; women being turned into chattel? Just a possible boost to their careers and a test for their theories. A good luncheon topic. But this is real, all too real.
First, a word on contingencies. Governments and political analysts are supposed to examine likely problems in order that they can be evaded or minimized. The time to be alarmed is not when problems become visible but when governments refuse to recognize their existence. Western regimes and analysts are generally taking a best-possible-case view on Egypt and other developing issues in the region. I’m tempted to say they are taking a fantasy view. They dismiss not just worst-case but highly likely case scenarios. Now that’s what’s alarming.
In the Sinai Peninsula, Hamas is building support bases and arms-manufacturing facilities including those for building rockets. Over time, these rockets will no doubt be upgraded. In other words, Egypt is becoming a safe haven for anti-Israel terrorism. We know that these attacks will come from the Gaza Strip. The only question is whether at some point they will come directly across the Egypt-Israel border.
Israel had a long experience with three comparable situations. In the 1950-56 era, Egypt was a safe haven for terror attacks into Israel; in the 1967-1970 period, Jordan played this role. During the 1970s and 1980s, even down to today, Lebanon did so, with the safe haven in Syria. The difference was that Israel did attack into Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and even occasionally into Syria in reponse to this situation.
Such an attack into Egypt in response to Egyptian involvement in attacks through the Gaza Strip is unthinkable given what an Egypt-Israel war would look like. And that doesn’t mean there won’t be sporadic attacks across the Egypt-Israel border also that would present similar problems.
There is a pattern here.
Israel, of course, is quickly building a border fence, paid for by a 2 percent cut in the budgets of government agencies, and thus the salaries of government employees.
Meanwhile, too, Libyan weapons, including Russian-made anti-plane rockets that can be fired by one man, are also making their way into the Gaza Strip. From there, or from Egyptian territory, one of them could be fired at an Israeli passenger plane on the Tel Aviv-Eilat route.
Israel has permitted more Egyptian military units to enter Sinai even though this was restricted by their peace treaty. But that doesn’t mean those forces will do anything, or at least do much, against these activities. After all, would Egypt’s army dare suppress Hamas though it is seen by most Egyptians — and soon by a majority in Egypt’s parliament — as heroic? What! Will they act as bodyguards for the evil Zionist entity that is allegedly committing genocide right next door? (That last sentence was a paraphrase of what a leading Egyptian “moderate” claimed in speaking to an American university audience.)
And let’s not forget that there are corrupt officers and also officers who sympathize with Hamas. What if they just don’t follow orders from Cairo?
Dear Prof Rubin
I’m a great fan, and so thanks for another perceptive piece.
You’ve described here the circumstances (or beginnings of them) that could lead to serious conflict between Israel and Hamas/Egypt in the months or years ahead. And elsewhere you’ve commented on the recent bellicose rhetoric of Turkey against Israel.
So can you envisage a situation where Israel ends up at war with both Egypt/Hamas and Turkey at the same time? And if you can, who do you think would come out on top given that Israel could not rely on anyone, even the USA, to come to its aid?
Regards,
Jonathan Goodson
“Such an attack into Egypt in response to Egyptian involvement in attacks through the Gaza Strip is unthinkable given what an Egypt-Israel war would look like.”
Unthinkable to whom?
Somebody in Israel had better be thinking about it, as somebody in Egypt is plotting it.
Israelis need “Go Old Testament” on their enemies, to paraphrase Tarantino.
“Pillar of Fire” comes to mind. That was in the Sinai and could serve as a model to emulate. Good use for natural gas.
What is the source of the story about Hamas having a safe haven in Egypt? What about officers who are corrupt and sympathize with Hamas? Who are they, where, how many? Are these assumptions? What can one do with an assumption?
Parliament isn’t seated yet and the army seems committed to let the situation in Cairo spiral just far enough out of control to perhaps annul the elections, letting the people see that Egypt is not ready for true democracy, since without the army, there is no force to ensure security.
Unless you have not been watching live feeds at this very minute, there is a stand-off in Cairo between security forces and protesters and those protesters are NOT Islamists. The army is using live ammo and both sides are hurling rocks and molotov cocktails.
I think there is a difference between the army backing down and playing a cat and mouse game of sit and wait. The question no one is asking is why an army of almost 400,000 men commit such small resources to the situation in Cairo. They could easily deploy 10,000 men and round up these unarmed protesters in minutes.
Instead they commit a few hundred to clear Tahrir Square and then let it be reoccupied. Perhaps the army wants these tensions to continue. The vast majority of people in Cairo simply want peace and stability as they are sitting on the sidelines on this one.
For the protesters part, they are as adamant about the army stepping down with no conditions as they were about Mubarak in Feb. They are small in number but they are resolved and are dying every day and burning buildings.
The fact is that the protesters are not physically threatening the army’s position in Egypt but justifying the army’s position of staying in control and that army is enabling the situation by standing up just enough to see that they ARE standing up but not enough to clear out the relatively small number of protesters. As long as the protest is violent but largely symbolic since it is not physically affecting an army presence that has no one center to attack and control, everything will be up in the air including the elections which are still in progress.
And what about *your* assumptions? Mr. Rubin has a well-established track record as a commentator on Mideastern affairs. I think he is exactly right about the extreme, and rapidly-mounting peril facing Israel today. We are on the verge of another Holocaust. Last time it was Europeans who sent six million Jews to a horrible death. This time it will be hate-filled, scapegoat-seeking Muslims doing the slaughter, while Europe looks on, and does nothing.
I can source my assumptions which are no where near as serious as saying Hamas has actual traitors in the Egyptian Army that place Palestine before Egyptian national interests and saying there are safe havens that amount to foreign military bases within Egypt. In any event my being wrong wouldn’t preclude the necessity for sourcing.
Anyone who thinks a Holocaust is coming is crazy. I hear this Chicken Little year after year.
– Weldon Welsede
– I can source my assumptions
Do it.
What are you: his water carrier? First of all, I didn’t say the points in question were assumptions, I asked if they were. My main points were not in direct conflict with the article. I asked for sourcing. Saying I should source mine is trying to establish a positive with a negative which won’t deflect the original issue. I’m not surprised your powers of reason predict a holocaust with no evidence other than wishful thinking.
“Well established track record” is your opinion and not a fact and about which others might have a different opinion without residing in a realm of haters or idiots. This is why people source.
To source my main point one has only to turn on a TV and see a few hundred soldiers out of an army of almost 400,000 continually allow a few hundred to few thousand protesters to establish themselves on the street, throwing rocks, molotovs and burning things. 10,000 soldiers would easily overwhelm them with little violence and this has not once been done. It is not wild speculation to ask where a few hundred thousand soldiers are or why no one in the media on either side of the Arab Spring issue has once addressed this point that I can see.
Assumptions can easily be made as to the no-show of the army in force. It could be purposeful to enable chaos to make the army look necessary, it could show a split in the army, it could show an army that is simply clueless, it could be to discredit secular/civilian forces as thugs. The truth is no one knows and no one is asking.
One would think that if the army heads are afraid of stepping down with a tiger by the tail due to concerns of being convicted for killing protesters in Egyptian of international courts, that using massive force to clear the protesters would mean no firearms. Right now the army may be determined to not leave but it could also be a damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
Parsing it all out to mean all roads lead to Israel is a natural concern for supporters of Israel but often entirely misses a larger picture which could also be useful in regard to Israel.
simply sad…you are wrong weldon…but only time will tell. When it does, it will be too late. You are wrong Weldon.
Yeah he’s wrong because no matter if war happens in 1 year or 100 you’re right and when it comes to Israel you’re always right. I think I might have an aneurism if I ever hear balance from the Right on this issue. Why would I listen to people who wouldn’t tell me what time it is without first checking to see how it might affect Israel?
“…the clocks were striking thirteen.”
Boooonnnnnnnnng!
So let’s say there are two alternatives:
A. The army will continue to rule Egypt. (BTW, they might be avoiding cracking down on protesters because of American pressure as the army depends on American aid.)
B. Egypt will be goverened by a political leadership elected by the people, which means the Muslim Brotherhood will be very strong.
Of course, there’s also a third option of sharing power between the army and the Brotherhood, and possibly the president if he’s not in reality from the Brotherhood (whether formally or informally).
In the first case it’ll likely cause less damage to Israel since the army both understands the Israeli military power and depends on the US for aid and weapon. Though it’ll still want to appease the crowd and being seen as “Zionist collaborators” isn’t going to do that.
In the second case, Muslim Brotherhood rule, possibly with Arab ultra-nationalists and far leftists (moderate liberals being a minority), we can’t expect peaceful borders with Israel to last long.
Allowing Hamas and other terrorists to operate on Egyptian soil against Israel will not be widely seen as treason, unless they attack Egyptians too. Hamas is a wing of the Muslim Brotherhood (see Hamas Covenant, article 2 IIRC) and part of the Arab nation and the Muslim Ummah. As for the Egyptian army – there are Muslim Brotherhood supporters in the army and many of them are likely to be Hamas sympathizers too. The Brotherhood’s vision is pan-Islamic, not limited to one Muslim state and seeing the interests of other Muslims as foreign interests.
It’s the relationship with Israel that is widely seen as treason and cowardice. You should follow the Arab media for a while and it’ll be quite plain to see the level of hatred popular in the region for Israel and Jews (and no, it didn’t start in 1967, nor in 1948) and the wish for its destruction. National affiliation isn’t as clear in the Middle East as it is in many other places since the Arabs are a nation, and the Arab states of the Middle East were created by colonial powers not based on pre-existing borders and nations, so it is quite complex. If you’d watch the Arab media enough you’d hear plenty of expressions from Egyptian Arabs, Iraqi Arabs and Moroccan Arabs speaking of Israel as “our land”, i.e. not Palestinian-Arab land, but Arab land. Lots of them see it as Arab land and Muslim land and therefore Egypt’s business, Iraq’s business, Iran’s business and so on, and not a foreign interest.
Mubarak had his own reasons for not wanting to strengthen Hamas, beyond the peace agreement with Israel and American aid. The Muslim Brotherhood was an internal threat to his regime, and Hamas is a Muslim Brotherhood wing, so Hamas’ successes would strenghten the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the more arms Hamas could get the more physical threat as well. Hamas was supported by Iran to the extent of becoming an Iranian proxy, and Iran is an external threat and a competitor on regional hegemony. But Hamas is no threat to the Muslim Brotherhood, and as for support from Iran – if Egypt governed by the Muslim Brotherhood will overtly or covertly replace Iran in supporting Hamas that consideration will stop existing as well.
What you seem to suggest is that we should first wait and see if Egypt will indeed be governed by an elected president and parliament or if the army manages to hold on to power, and only then just start thinking about what might happen. I think it’s a good idea to start thinking as soon as possible and prepare for all possible scenarios. Note the following sentence in Rubin’s article: “So Israel’s first step is to go to the Egyptian army and ask that it do something. If it says “yes,” well and good. But what if it doesn’t do much or anything?” That doesn’t mean the army is certain to say no, it means we should think thoroughly of the other options.
Full of wishful thinking and rank assumptions, such as only you read the Arab media and that there is only one Arab media and that if only one had access to your knowledge they would all see things your way. In fact, in the case where people are seen to be more informed or actually in Egypt, they are dismissed as useful idiots or idiots incapable of parsing the information, and accurate information, right in front of them.
Normally when one uses reason and logic another assumption is present: that if an even more reasoned or informed logic is put forward, you’d change your mind. Why even pretend that would ever in a thousand years be the case? When one contrasts the reality on the ground with the amazing amount of wishful thinking from certain quarters, especially keyboard warriors and propagandists who hate Egypt and are not there but act as if they have no particular axe to grind and are in fact in Egypt, it is silly to the point of maniacal.
I’m laughing at how childish this is. It’s question time friend, not laying down “what’s up” time.
Wishful thinking?! If you believe that what I wish for myself is more and more terrorist attacks in my country, and more and more rockets hitting my town, and possibly my home, which I’d take very personally, or a possible war where I might lose relatives, friends, or my own life or limbs, you are crazy. There’s nothing I’d wish for more than for our neighbors to become lovely peaceful moderate democracies with which we could have peaceful relations.
Yeah Egypt would be a nice place without any muslims in it. By that standard of being a good neighbor all that’s necessary is for Muslims to stop being Muslims and be more like you. There’s no substitute for being right.
“The army is using live ammo and both sides are hurling rocks and molotov cocktails.”
If I take what you wrote literally, the Egyptian army is throwing rocks and Molotov Cocktails?
Yes, the army is trading thousands of rocks and also some molotov cocktails from across barriers and rooftops the last 2 days. I’ve seen the footage live of molotovs falling right in the middle of protesters. I would imagine it is on youtube. The army is also shooting them. A religious cleric and medical student have been shot dead among many others.
Dr. Rubin do you see, as you seem to describe here, a Somalia-like free for all in the area bordering Israel, if not all of Egypt, or a Lebanon-like border? With food and commodities becoming scarce is there a warlord society developing – warlords being say ranking military officers – each with his own domain and the consequent in-fighting that generates? It would seem that in the chaos there now, an organized effort to launch against Israel will fail for lack of money and coherence. So are you describing either a Lebanon like border with a defined enemy on one hand, or an inchoate militarized Somalia on steroids on the other, one that is too fractured and cannibalizing to mount any sustained threat to Israel?
Partly because of this threat the IDF has announced that it is forming a new “depth corps” reported in J Post today. This unit will expand and coordinate other units, such as Sayaret in operating deep behind enemy lines, such as in Sinai.
Meanwhile the gas pipeline from Egypt was blown up again. This is the 10th time since spring broke out for arabs. Again, this hurts Egypt and Jordon more than Israel. The Tamar gas fields off Israel’s coast will be able to supply 100% of Israel’s needs by 2013 according to recent estimates. Larger fields further out will allow Israel to become a net exporter in the near future.
Also this week Apple announced that it is establishing an R&D center in Israel. This is important because unlike most countries in the region Israel has a high tech economy and strong relationships with multinationals rendering it very resiliant hence the total failure of the boycott movement.
Israel at the same time must not allow corrosion of its liberal democratic values. Signs are very good that they will not allow this to happen. The government is cracking down on the Price Tag extremists. The chief Rabbi has come out against gender segregation on buses and marriage laws have become more liberal.
Israel is getting stronger every day. I do not think that is true for its enemies.
Note that the gender segragation is happening only in some Ultra Orthodox neighborhoods (not all of them) and a few bus lines that go through these neighborhoods, and isn’t some kind of a nation wide phenomenon, and it’s a pretty new one in the Ultra-Orthodox community, which is a minority anyway. According to the latest poll I saw only 8% of the Israeli Jewish population strictly observe kosher rules, which means both the Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox make no more than 8% of the Israeli Jewish population, or taking into account error margins, no more than 10% (there can be other Jews who observe kosher rules and who are neither Orthodox nor Ultra-Orthodox). And this is only happening in some Ultra-Othodox neighborhoods and nowhere else, including Orthodox neighborhoods. In case you don’t know, there is gender segragation in one Jewish Ultra-Orthodox of the extreme variety in the US. I can’t remember the name of the neighborhood, but I’ve learned of its existence when reading about Hillary Clinton paying a visit to it some years ago. The American government does nothing about it. And there are all kinds of phenomena in various Muslim neighborhoods the American government does nothing about either.
This phenomenon is extremely controversial in Israel, but there are also issues of freedom of religion, its limits, and to what degree the government is allowed to interfere in both religious and commercial choices (the bus company that wants to accommodate these clients as to not lose them). So there are democratic arguments on both sides. But in either case to present it as a threat to Israeli democracy is a wild exaggeration, whether it comes from Israelis or foreigners. And it is used in the delegitimation campaign against Israel.
There’s also some background to this phenomenon. The Ultra-Orthodox movement was formed as a reaction to modernity – to the growing secularization and the Jewish Reform movement back in the day. Part of the Orthodox Jews decided to be much stricter and shut themselves off to defend against secularization and reform. Today there are some growing liberal trends in the Orthodox community and even the Ultra-Orthodox community, and there are also parallel reactionary trends of becoming more extreme as defense against liberlization. They are also a reaction to the growing liberlism of the Israeli society, and Western society in general, which makes the Ultra-Orthodox feel more alienated and threatened than before. For instance, holding a gay parade in Jerusalem. 30-40 years ago there were hardly any gay parades anywhere in the West, but Western society and Israeli society became increasingly liberal. The Ultra-Orthodox don’t mind that much the gay parades in Tel Aviv and Eilat, but they view the yearly gay parade in Jerusalem as a direct assault on everything they hold sacred (imagine a gay parade in Mecca or the Vatican City). It also affects how some of their own people, including gays, view homosexuality. So on one hand you have phenomena like women demanding more power and stauts in religious matters, some Orthodox rabbis already discussing the possibility of female rabbis (which is associated with Reform Judaism that has female rabbis), and even gay and lesbian movements, including members coming from the Ultra-Orthodox community, and on the other hand you suddenly have these extreme forms of gender segragation in some neighborhoods. These forms of radicalization are a great concern to Israelis, but shouldn’t be blown completely out of proportions either.
The Price Tag movement is indeed a threat to Isareli democracy because these people don’t recognize the Israeli democracy and authority and consider themselves above the law and above the Israeli vote. They should be seen as a hostile terrorist organization.
In case I wasn’t clear re the “feminist” trends and gay movement – I meant those trends exist today in the Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox communities themselves. They were not seen as such a great threat when they existed only outside their communities. And women going out to work are common enough even in the Ultra-Orthodox community (in families where the man dedicates much of his time to religious studies the woman is the main provider and the main authority in “worldly” affairs). But women demanding more and more influence in religious matters, nevermind female rabbis, is a completely different matter.
The Pharisees rightly condemn gay pride parades, but their problem is that they get so caught up in the minutia of the Law that they miss the whole point.
The Egyptians and Hamas are counting on Israel not getting totally fed up with the situation and simply erasing the Gaza Strip. There is no doubt whatsoever that they could invade it and drive out all occupants. Sure, the “world” would have a fit, but so what? Defending one’s self-interest should come first for a country finding itself in the situation Israel faces today. As for the Sinai, Israel could be in total control before the Egyptians had time to mobilize. And I do believe the IDF knows precisely where the HQ of Egypt’s military is located – all services so far as that goes.
I congratulate the Israelis on their stupidity: first they gave up the Sinai which was a great buffer against Egypt; then Benedict Arnold, Shimon Peres, shook hands with one of the biggest murderers and terrorists, Yasser Arafat, and gave up the West Bank and Gaza. Israel also gave land back to Jordan and Lebanon. What idiotic moves. Land returned to the Arabs were for protection against Arab invaders, especially those that slipped across the border and slit the throats of the Fogel family; and rockets coming daily from Gaza and Lebanon. The chickens are coming home to roost for stupidity and cowardness. I am ashamed that the Israelis would give into terrorists, murderers, Islamists.A leopard does not change its spots. Israelis have put themselves into a position in which they now have to defend their country. They have put their own people at risk. And Shimon Peres should be in jail for his treasonous actions in committing Israel to the Oslo accords. He is a traitor.
Ilene,
Israel has always been in position to defend and every Israeli knows about the risk they are in. They are not, by any stretch of imagination, cowardly nor stupid. That is unfair and uninformed. They send their children to be warriors on that wall of defense. They are fighters, even lefty Israelis have sons and daughters on that line at risk every day. They devote enormous resource in economic and brain power to construct the greatest defense force they can.
Everyone takes IDF, Mossad, and other branches of Israeli defense very seriously. It is formidable from any point of view.
Israel does not commit genocidal acts not because it cannot. It could. Not because of world opinion which mostly hates Israel anyway. It is because they do not want to. At some point there needs to be a moral compass. A point where beyond that you lose your reason for fighting in the first place and operate on pure hatred. That would be the other guys.
If I read this correctly, another war is looming in the near future and it will not be a simple affair and the Israelis know this but the idiot leaders in Washington and in Europe refuse to admit this to themselves and refuse to admit that their policies have failed. Our fearless president is paying lip service to the Israeli- U.S. relationship while driving knife after knife into the Israelis.
If there is a war in the middle east, it will not be a tidy affair. The Israelis should use unprecedented force against all parties involved. The Israelis should also tell our president and the Europeans to take a very long walk off of a very short pier.
As to the U.N., they should be ignored. In southern Lebanon, they have proven themselves to be almost useless, just like in other scenarios such as in Egypt. If the Israelis take land, they should not return it except if the Arabs pay the price of recognizing Israel and it’s right to exist peacefully. I am not going to hold my breath waiting for the Arabs.
The UN wasn’t useless in Lebanon – it was quite useful to Hizballah. UN vehicles (either real or fake) are used to move weapons and terrorists around in Lebanon and the PA. UN vehicles (real or fake) were used also to approach Israeli soldiers unsuspected and kidnap them. And back in the 60s when Nasser wanted to attack Israel he simply told the “peace keeping” forces to f–k off and they did.
More of the same from Mr. Rubin. So what do we want to do about it? Go to war with Egypt? Mr. Rubin seems to think that US national interests are identical to Israel’s national interests. They are not.
It appears the governments of the west wish for Israel to commit suicide. If they decide to do this maybe they will do it by setting off every nuclear device they have. And the west doesn’t seem to fear nukes in the hands of terrorist nations maybe they should learn to count just exactly how many Israel has.
Dear Mr Rubin, I just wanted to commend you for one of the most well-written articles I’ve read in several weeks. In fact, I just respectfully suggested that a blogger at least review his articles before publishing them. Not just misspellings, incorrect verb tense, but it was a challenge to read. With so much for most of us to read — if we wish to keep up on current events, especially as Jews with the events in Israel and the countries/terrorists that affect the Jewish state — when it’s a challenge to read, it simply adds to the time and effort. Your writing is brilliant. Many of us appreciate this, and I thank you personally. Bell well and Chag Sameach!
In God we trust:
that needs to be our motto and guide as the Jewish state of Israel. Especially since there are no diplomatic solutions on the table, none that are viable anyway. Israel cannot rely on her most important ally. The tides have turned, and it appears that another variation of Stockholm Syndrome has taken over the US and its leaders in the WHite House and State Department. We Jews have an existential crises on our hands. Either we define our destiny right now, or it will be defined for us. If anyone thinks for a minute that siding with the Arabs will save our skin, think twice. We are dealing with the most virulent form of Islam and fascism combined, Islamo fascism – every bit as bad or worse than Nazi fascism. IT is time to define the borders, and get rid of all those who want our blood. War cannot be avoided.
I read your other article (“How Can Israel Please the American Government, Media, and “Experts”? It Can’t”) and disagree with the point on the refugees and their descendants. Don’t kid yourself. After giving in to all the Arab official territorial demands before even discussing this issue, Israel will be demanded to give in on this issue as well, and when Israel inevitably refuses (since it means collective suicide) it will be blamed for the collapse of the “peace” “negotiations” and the following violent hostilities.
This is partly Israel’s fault too for being far more willing to compromize than the other side. The West has a strong interest in peace because it has a strong interest in the stability of oil supply. Of course, the Arab-Israeli conflict isn’t the only regional conflict, but it is the only conflict where the Arabs, and in fact nearly all Muslim states, are united and therefore can impose an effective oil embargo like they did in 73. Back then it caused a global recession, so it isn’t a small matter. Of course, the West has tools to counter it with its own embargo on various types of products the Middle East imports, but the West will much prefer to avoid it all together. So they have a strong interest in peace and they don’t care much how it’s achieved or what’s the price for Israel. Under such circumstances Israel should have stood its ground far more forcefully and vocally from the start.
For instance, in the Oslo accords the Pal-Arab side committed itseld to abandon violence, cease anti-Israel incitement and educate their people for peace. These were fundamental commitments on which the entire “peace process” was conditioned. But the other side broke all of them and murdered about a thousand Israeli civilians in terrorist attacks in the 90s, beginning shortly after signing the agreement. The PLO claimed they just can’t control Hamas, but whether it was true or not, they could not be ragarded a viable peace partner. They continued and increased the anti-Israel and anti-Jewish incitement, and whether they allowed Hamas, Islamic Jihad and some of their own (Fatah) factions to carry out terrorist attacks, or just couldn’t control them it shouldn’t have mattered to Israel. If they can’t control the territory they can’t be a viable peace partner, nor a viable state. At that point, back in the 90s, Israel should have declared the agreement null and void due to the other side violating its most fundamental commitments, and that it would not resume negoiations until the PLO proves it’s both willing and able to end the violence and the incitement. What did our government do instead? Declared that “we will continue negotiations as if there was no terrorism, and fight terrorism as if there were no negotiations”. In other words, the Israeli government accepted and practically legitimized the complete abandonment of the Israeli most basic demands and the Pal-Arab most basic commitments, while continuing to give away territories for nothing except more and more Israeli bodies.
At the time I actually supported the government, I let myself be deluded by the media and my own wishful thinking (I was also much younger). But I recognize that was a fundamental and fatal error, and totally stupid and irresponsible of our government. You see, back in those early days we and the Arabs established the rules. In every relationship the partners establish the rules in the beginning, whether they realize it or not. Of course, there was Western pressure involved, but back then it was mostly up to us to firmly establish the rules. We can’t expect the West to protect and represent our interests – the West protects its own interests and it’s us who should have protected our own and realized the long term implications. Because when we continued negotiating and giving up territory in spite of the other side violating its fundamnetal commitments and murdering Israeli civilians on a scale not seen since 1948, and all this as part of a supposed “peace”, not war, we practically established the rule that Israel will keep on making concession independently of the other side’s behavior. It was us who established the rule that Israeli blood matters not, that it’s Israel who makes concessions, and that the other side will never be held to its commitments.
Similarly our response, or lack thereof, to rocket attacks from Gaza gave the impression that they are nothing important. They started in 2000. In 2005 Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza. The year after that, 2006, the rocket attacks increased 5-600% compared with previous years, and the next year yet doubled. Hamas was elected, took over Gaza and declared all agreements with Israel null and void, effectively declaring war on Israel. After more rocket attacks, shooting incidents at the border, and terrorist attacks Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza. Only in 2008 – after 8 years and many thousands of rockets, mortars and bullets shot at Israeli towns and civilians – Israel finally launched a military operation to stop the rocket attacks. We should have forcefully responded immediately, 8 years sooner, to stop the attacks. What other country would have waited 8 years before launching a serious military operation when its towns are attacked with rockets? It was us who again reaffirmed the rules that rocket attacks are normal and just fine, something we can perefctly live with, that it’s not normal for Israel to defend itself, that giving up more territory while under rocket attacks is the right thing to do, that the other side shouldn’t be demanded to do anything in return for Israeli concessions, and generally that Israel has no right to demand anything or defend itself. For the other side to murder or attempt to murder Israeli civilians is just the normal, it’s OK, no problem.
So now you say: ‘But, but… we made all these concessions, and the other side never gave up even an inch of its demands, and continued attacking Israel and inciting its people to destroy Israel and kill Jews, yet the world blames Israel for defending itself, demands Israel make more concessions and demands nothing from the other side… That is so unfair!’ But that’s not how things work.
Imagine there’s some dispute between two neighbors in your neighborhood, and this dispute is causing inconvenience to the rest of the neighbors. Your interest will be to stop the dispute. You don’t really care who’s wrong or right, or what will be the damage caused to each of these two neighbors, you just want it over. Now say one of these neighbors, the X family, isn’t willing to concede even an inch of their demands, while Y family is pressurable. In every round of negotiations Y family concedes something, while X family stubbornly refuses to conede anything or claims it can’t control all of its family members. After a few rounds who would you pressure more – X family or Y family? Logically you may think that X family will also have to concede something if peace is to be achieved, but the reality on the ground is that even the slightest pressure on Y family always gets you something, and the Ys are even willing to give up things without being pressured at all or getting anything in return, while pressuring X family never gets you anything. So pressuring the Y family is an effective behavior, while pressuring the X family is an ineffective behavior. You will choose the effective behavior, the path of least resistance.
So now we have a PM that does have a bit of firmness in defending Israel’s interests, but the world is already accustomed to disregard these interests and expect more and more Israeli concessions, and not expect anything from the Arabs. So it might be a bit too late to start now.
Better late than never. Let’s see if Netanyahu can follow through.
Take a disintegrating Middle East falling into Islamic fascism and economic collapse, add Pakistani missing nukes and open borders between the United States and Mexico.
It may take mushroom clouds to secure the border. The scary thing is, we get to put this theory to the test soon.
To answer your questions, I think yes, a lot of people are suffering fatigue about Israel and its neighbors. They’ve been fighting each other since the country was created. It’s hard to get excited by endless war.
Beyond that, just what do you want to do, exactly?
On the one hand, you have the case of Turkey, where a democratic ally of the West basically turned it’s back on the West (and the country’s founder) to elect Islamists that are hostile to Israel.
You’ve got a country were we replaced a dictator by force and installed democracy. They voted in Islamists and are probably going to be descending into a civil war in a matter of months.
You have governments toppling by themselves only to be replaced by democracy, which are electing Islamists who are hostile to Israel.
Islamism that is hostile to Israel seems to be coming to the region by every means. If Israel wants to survive, it’s going to have figure out a way to stem that feeling in its neighbors.
Personally, I think their only option is to simply decide on their own contiguous borders, put up a wall, and let the Palestinians and the rest of middle east get on with their lives. They might bitch about the borders, but Israel needs to get them focusing on their own problems, not an external enemy…the status quo paints a target on Israel’s back.
But at the end of the day, it’s Israel’s problem to work out on its own. The biggest problem is we keep getting dragged into it.
The problem with this view is that, contrary to Western propaganda, the West has been anti-Israel for the past 40 years. For example, Hezbollah and Hamas would have been exterminated, in 2006 and 2009 respectively, if the West had allowed Israel to finish the job. And Egypt would have been completely crushed in 1973. As World War II has shown, a population driven by ideological fanaticism can only be reformed if it is made to feel the shock of total military defeat and all its attendant miseries. Yet, in the case of the Arabs, this is precisely what the West has prevented, time after time. Is that too much to ask of the West, to stop protecting Israel’s enemies from Israel?
If this is true, it would be smart for Israel to get out of the West Bank. If Islamic countries are still sabre rattling after that, their true objective will stand out in stark contrast. Support for Israel will rise as there are few if any countries outside of Islam that will support the dissolution of Israel. No anti-Israel entities will be able to hide behind the occupation of the West Bank. Similarly, a strong case for open war cannot be made by agitation and cross border raids and rocket fire being answered by Israel. If Islamists support the West Bank then let their hostility be frayed by a Palestinian state. It is inevitable and there will never be an ideal time to give in to this reality so why not do it now?
Israel does not need to withdraw from anywhere to prove anything: that’s yet another ignorant misconception promoted by the anti-Israel media. It’s disproved by the fact that the Arabs were “saber-rattling” before 1967, and that their demands even now go much further than Israel’s withdrawing to pre-1967 borders. The people who blame Israel for the conflict now are either misinformed or prejudiced, and such defects wouldn’t magically go away if Israel made more concessions.
Okay, then here’s another solution: just fight forever.
As long as Islam exists, there will be Imams telling the Ummah they must destroy Israel to regain what Islam has lost. It is the will of Allah of the Kaaba, and Muhammad demands it. Plus, the globalists are helping the Muslim Brotherhood, with American military power, put back together what Brition destroyed in WW1.
Now, plan according.
PS. There is only Islam, not Islamism, or extremist Islam, or moderate Islam.
In November, 2011, the king of Jordan said in a Washington Post interview that nobody could depend on America any more.
None of our allies, Israel, or the American people can depend on our government to protect us from our enemies.
Obama made a special point of inviting his BIG favorites, the Muslim Brotherhood, to his speech in Cairo. Behind the scenes, America worked to oust U.S. ally, moderate Mubarak, and bring to power the Muslim Brotherhood whose stated goal is global Islamic conquest and the DESTRUCTION of civilization.
28 Jan 2011. The Telegraph: Egypt protests: America’s secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising. The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
People exactly like you are constantly harping how America doesn’t support rebels in Syria, Iran, etc. Then when an unsourced paper shows we DO support such a group in Egypt, you act as if you are a dispassionate observer without an agenda and harp and cark. On top of this, the groups we support mysteriously become Islamist though they are not only Islamist or even demonstrably mostly Islamist and the whole thing in your mind totals that the President of the United States wants to wilfully establish an Islamic Caliphate over the entirety of the world.
Does that about cover it?
From the document of the Muslim Brotherhood in North America:
The process of settlement is a “Civilization-Jihadist Process” and all the word means. The
Ikhwan [Arabic for brothers] must understand that their work in America is a kind of grand Jihad to eliminate and destroy the Western civilization from within, and sabotage its miserable house by their hands and the hands of the believers, so that it is eliminated, and God’s religion is made victorious over all other religions.
It is a Muslim’s destiny to perform Jihad and work wherever he is and wherever he lands until the final hour comes, and there is no escape from that destiny…”
I suspect Joan (#2 above) is correct. There are those in Egypt even now contemplating war with Israel. Israel would be foolish not to have contingency plans.
I’m not Jewish and am unfamiliar with the relationship between Israeli Jews and American Jews aside from a general knowledge that American Jews have been increasingly secular and less interested and committed to Zionism.
In which ways are Israeli Jews attempting to recruit support in the U.S.? That seems critical. Also important would be American Jews strong support for U.S. energy independence. The less the dependence on Arab oil, the more support there would be on principle for Israel. But, of course, that would require American Jews to forsake their longstanding support for the anti-Israel Democratic party and the anti-Israel, probable Muslim Obama.
Israel has to step up its game, I believe.
`Such an attack into Egypt in response to Egyptian involvement in attacks through the Gaza Strip is unthinkable given what an Egypt-Israel war would look like.`
Notice how this kind of thinking only goes one way. Israel can’t attack Egypt, but Egypt can facilitate Hamas’ attacks on Israel. What is wrong with this picture?
Perhaps we should take a page from God’s strategies. A small symbolic attack on an Egyptian target to wake up Egypt. Dropping a couple of bombs in the Egyptian desert won’t do. It has to inflict some pain but not a lot of pain. Then see what the Egyptians do.
Whatever the Egyptians do, they were going to do anyway. It’s just a matter of affecting the timing. Israel might as well know the truth now.
Israel can and will and in fact must attack any violence that emanates in Egypt. Israel has shown in the past that they will not be frightened by where the source of a rocket attack comes from.
Even the political Left which cozens or ignores rocket attacks out of Gaza will have little excuse for rocket attacks that are proved to be from Egyptian territory. Given today’s tech, that should be relatively easy to do.
Egypt has no excuse or reason to attack or allow attacks on Israel no matter how sympathetic they are to the Palestinian cause. Doing so would be a problem for Egypt outside the Arab world and even some Arab nations would ask what exact dog in the hunt Egypt has that gives them the right to destabilize the region.
Hey! Dont be too hysterical. If you think how much technology has developed over the last decade – thats as much as our weapon systems have developed. Would the Americans be afraid of pygmy terror? I think not
For instance all our commercial planes are protected by anti – missile missiles that saved at least one plane in Africa. And the Americans are buying our systems. The drone was developed here – after all.
Apple TODAY has just bought one of our hi-tech buisinesses for half a billion dollars and is setting up the first development unit outside the USA. And our Technion University has been chosen to run a huge uni in the states.
So don’t worry – we aren’t just wide brimmed bearded defenseless Jews anymore!
Mr. Rubin – how can this be ?
We were given assurances by the leadership in Washington that the actions in Egypt and the other ‘break away’ Islamist countries were based on their search for freedom and a thirst for democracy.
The UAW-CIO was sending money to assist in signage and organizational expenses for the ’freedom searchers’ – Democrats across the board were ecstatic – it was unfortunate that the delight of the Arab Brotherhood was so well masked that it fooled even our tangle haired Secretary Of State!
The UAW-CIO funding could well be monies now being spent on developing terrorist training centers in the sands of the Sinai.
How can this be?
Oh – don’t we know – don’t we know!
Change will only happen in one of two ways – by ballots or bullets – what ever it takes!
It has long been looking for an article on Rubin Reports » Coming War Threat: Terrorists Developing a Safe Haven in Egypt to Attack Israel .