If you are a secularist, a “modern woman,” or a Christian, it’s probably time to get in line at some foreign embassy for a visa. Today, people may think that is an alarmist statement. In a year everyone will know it to be true. I already know people who have left the country.
By the time the election is finished, there should be an easy two-third’s majority for an Islamist constitution.
Of course, all eyes will then turn to the presidential election which should take place in June or not too long afterward. There is an increasing likelihood — I’m tempted to say a certainty — that the Brotherhood will win. In the first round, al-Nour might take away too many votes to gain a majority, but presumably al-Nour would support the Brotherhood candidate in the second round. Oh, wait: perhaps the two second-round candidates will be from the Brotherhood and from al-Nour.
Then, with a two-thirds majority in parliament and a president from the Brotherhood, the true anti-fun will begin.
If Western governments have any brains whatsoever they better start preparing for that moment and they better assume the resulting regime will not be friendly. That means worries of war for Israel (will the Obama administration stop blaming Israel and start supporting it?); lots of fleeing refugees from Egypt; the formation of an Egypt-Tunisia-Libya-Hamas (Gaza Strip) alliance; and Egyptian support for revolution in Syria and Jordan.
In other words, we are back to the wild 1952-1970 era of regional subversion, anti-Westernism, instability, and Arab-Israeli conflict, except for the substitution of Islamism for Gamal Abd al-Nasser’s Arab nationalism.
Forget about this bloc working with the Iran-Syria-Lebanon bloc — the two are enemies. Of course, these divisions coincide with the Sunni-Shia lines. That puts Iraq on the Shia side, but I don’t think Iraq is going to become a satellite of Iran and it will try to avoid regional entanglements.
And of course Israel, along with Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and four Gulf emirates (United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain) are out in the cold. They are the only friends the United States has left — and they don’t think the Obama administration is much of a friend.
How does the Palestinian Authority fit into this? Good question. They aren’t Islamists, and so must tremble in fear that both Islamist blocs will be out to get them. Certainly, the Sunnis will support Hamas. Thus, the very last thing the PA will want to do is to negotiate seriously or to make a peace agreement with Israel. This is a simple and obvious point, yet one that Western governments don’t seem to comprehend.
Returning to Egypt, let’s not forget the economic factor. The Brotherhood is smart enough to know that it isn’t a good idea to scare people, especially since they are going to be asking for a lot of aid and loans that they aren’t going to be paying back.
If you think an Islamist regime in Egypt supported by the Obama administration is strange, how about an Islamist regime in Egypt subsidized (albeit all too inadequately) by the Obama administration? Well, the president likes things green, so I guess Islamism fits in there.
It is astonishing to see how eager people are to argue that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist landslide in Egypt doesn’t really pose any big problems.
Then there’s the democracy fallacy, as expressed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton:
Transitions require fair and inclusive elections, but they also demand the embrace of democratic norms and rules. We expect all democratic actors to uphold universal human rights, including women’s rights, to allow free religious practice.
Let me try to explain it this way: Democratic norms are merely forms; the content is something else. Is there any chance that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists are not going to impose Islamic law on marriage, divorce, inheritance, dress codes, etc.? Of course not. Then what does Clinton expect is going to happen? We know what is going to happen.
Regarding “free religious practice,” the Islamists will accept that in principle. In practice, though, Christians will not be able to build and repair churches. Schools will teach anti-Christian doctrine. Christians will be periodically attacked and murdered without the authorities arresting or prosecuting those responsible (as also happened in the Mubarak era, without U.S. complaints).
Will Clinton and Obama then denounce the Islamists as not being “democratic actors” and condemn them? Of course not. They haven’t really done that in Iran or the Gaza Strip. Thus, Clinton’s statement is pure window dressing, or should I say parsley to garnish a bad policy.
What we have here then is a three-stage strategy:
1. Argue that the Islamists are not really a problem but can be moderate in power.
2. Welcome their taking power, but “warn” them not to behave precisely the way we all know they are going to behave.
3. When they behave that way, don’t complain or do anything about it.
The USA gives billions to basket-case Pakistan, so who’s to say America won’t give billions to basket-case Egypt? Future news reports from the West will talk about the “moderates” within the MB government and their “struggle” with the “hardliners”, just like they talked about Musharraf vs. the ISI (and even Khatami vs. Khamenei). I imagine that even a future conservative Republican President will keep giving them money as an incentive to keep the peace with Israel unless they blatantly break the agreement.
If it’s not enough money for them, I wouldn’t be surprised if they start looking with a jealous eye towards fellow Islamist Libya and their oil fields.
“The Brotherhood is smart enough to know that it isn’t a good idea to scare people, especially since they are going to be asking for a lot of aid and loans that they aren’t going to be paying back.”
That’s not something we Americans should give them. I see no prospects now of a liberal constitution where minority rights will be respected – not unless external actors put some sort of screw on.
I’m not sure why Egyptians voted so heavily Islamist. It may have to do with, as the Pakistani Khaled Ahmed says of his own society, confusing ethical behavior necessary for a functioning and responsive government with religious piety. Or it may have been, as one or two Egyptians contend, a deep fear of women’s liberation under a Western-oriented regime.
Either way, as long as Egypt needs money, foreigners get a say. History shows national bankruptcy in Egypt brings change. I suspect the MB will be careful enough to avoid this; yet we should not give in to merely vaporous emissions.
Solomon2: ” I’m not sure why Egyptians voted so heavily Islamist.” Really? You’re kidding me, right? Ok – i’ll tell you. Because they’re Muslims and they agree with them, that’s why. It’s not hard.
That’s too simple an answer for a people who think Muslims admire Thomas Jefferson and that American-style democracy is as natural as Tarzan’s affection for great apes.
I totally agree. Now that you have pointed it out, maybe the smart guys will see it too. Not.
Why do so few people know of Barry Rubin? His analyses are spot on. Most other pundits are mere ego exhibitionists and always so dead wrong any child can see through their fallacious reasoning yet they reach millions. I guess people don’t like to hear ugly truths.
I am rather curious how Obama-Clinton will rationalize their utter failure to predict Egypt’s behavior. Will they blame Israel only or Bush as well?
“I am rather curious how Obama-Clinton will rationalize their utter failure to predict Egypt’s behavior. Will they blame Israel only or Bush as well?”
They’ll remain silent as long as they can’t think of anything to say that would reveal their own mistakes or make them look stupid. Obama-Clinton didn’t get to where they are today by revealing such things.
“Most other pundits are mere ego exhibitionists and always so dead wrong”
I try to keep my ego down and STILL end up dead wrong: I didn’t think the Salafis would score so big.
They will blame Israel only.
“Why do so few people know of Barry Rubin?”
Because his analysis of reality (as distinct from his political leaning that is left of center) doesn’t fall in line with how the leftist mass media want to see reality.
You can see a perfect example in all this revolution business. He said the Bros are moving from recruiting and preparing their base to a revolutionary phase some 3-4 months before the revolution. But to the average NY Times journo that would seem like crazy talk, no matter what it was based on. During the revolution he said the Bros are the strongest and best organized movement in Egypt, but since the mass media believed they are weak (based on what? The protetsers in Cairo?), that would seem to them like crazy talk too. If the head of the NSA says the Bros are largely secular, what can you expect from the average journo?
Even when it appears they are somewhat stronger than imagined by the left, Solomon2 here (in #2) breaks his head to figure out the reasons why Egyptians voted so heavily Islamist. Because the leftists are sure that “most Egyptians have no interest in swapping Mubarak’s secular dictatorship for a religious one”, in the words of the NY Times. How do they know? Now all the readers and viewers of the mass media believe that because that’s what the media told them. “I’m not sure why Egyptians voted so heavily Islamist”, writes Solomon. Maybe it’s bacause they agree with many of the core beliefs of the Islamists? No, impossible, that’s crazy talk and Islamophobic to boot. But several surveys conducted in Egypt in the last few years indicate exactly that.
The Egyptians voting for them are not thinking to themselves “Now I’m gonna swap a secular dictatorship for a religious one, such fun!” They don’t think they’re voting for dictators. They vote for those they feel most represent them and their views. They will wake up when it’s too late. Or maybe not, I don’t know – in a similar survey in Pakistan a majority of Pakistany Muslims said Pakistan was not Islamic enough. “Not islamic enough” is certainly not the first thing that’ll come to your mind, Solomon’s mind or mine when thinking of Pakistan, but maybe different people raised in different cultures see things differently. To me, and I suppose to many others here too, it’s difficult to see what could be so attractive in what we consider extremely orthodox and repressive social and political order, to us it may seem like hell on earth, so it’s difficult for us to imagine that anyone would actually opt for it, given a free choice. But to them it might seem like the realization of divine law with all its light, beauty, truth and justice.
And many don’t know Michael Totten either. Victor routinely shows up here now and then to trash Michael. I hope he sees this:
“The Washington Institute for Near East Policy has awarded The Road to Fatima Gate, its annual Silver Book Prize.
Michael Totten’s narrative of the rise and fall of Lebanese democracy is a harrowing tale, grippingly told. It revolves around Hizballah’s brazen challenge to the Lebanese state, Lebanon’s own disastrous politics, and the ceaseless maneuvers of Israel and Syria. Totten’s storytelling is energetic and engaging, yet his analysis is always thoughtful and on-target. Lebanon’s present sad chapter hasn’t ended; this book is the finest introduction to the turmoil yet to come.”
They give these awards to travel blog journalists Victor?
Why Victor camps here is strange as Barry is not far afield from Michael. Both hold this administration’s feet to the fire while question the Liberal narrative regarding the Arab Spring. Mr. Rubin has been more political however, drawing sharp critiques of how Obama spins chaos in order to reset American domestic and foreign policy.
As Clinton “warns” Egypt to respect democracy and its necessary axioms concerning human rights and liberty, Badie spouts this: http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/1/64/28651/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-is-already-Islamic,-and-we-wont-monopolise-p.aspx
But we know better don’t we?
hxxp://www.palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=5911
Well done Renfield; an extra helping of flies tonight.
By the way Clinton’s use of Human Rights and Democracy is relative: which human, what rights and when.
As to democracy, well the recent example at the Saban Forum of using the fact that a private bus company provides a service to the ultra-orthodox community in Jerusalem in their area with segregation of male and female according to their religious tenets is tantamount to to the demise of women’s rights in Israel and democracy.
Apparently democracy according to Hilary Clinton is the forcing of secular ideology on religious minorities, except of course if the religious group is Muslim.
The “Ego” just told a whopper about journalistic malpractice considering his own cozening of lies told about someone covering the Egyptian revolution; result of telling the truth – as usual, banning.
Pnina,
Are Obama and his cohorts, media included, such idiots or are they setting up Israel Islamic style (Taquiya)?
“KRAUTHAMMER: Absolutely, everything is rewritten if the Salafist and the Brotherhood are in power. You could get outbreak of war which could engulf the entire region.
The problem is that the transition has to be over time. We saw the French Revolution, the Russian, and the Iranian. It’s liberals who go out in the street and start it, and then it’s the ideologues organized like the Islamist or the communists in Russia who seize power. So you want the military as a stabilizing influence. And we have to hope that it allows the evolution of a process over time.”
http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/special-report/2011/12/06/grading-white-house-egypt#ixzz1fmjAYAAq
Great: 2+2=4 slapped onto the entirety of history with the nuanced sucked out by pedantic vampires to satisfy their sense of order.
Hey everybody, Tahrir is the Bastille but without the powered wigs or crescent rolls. Otherwise it’s pretty much the same; go to you homes – nothing to see here.
I think at this point you have to right off the military. They are heading for the exits.
Not quite, contrary to what was written, at this point the military has announced that they themselves will choose 80 of the 100 people who will draw up the new Constitution.
I had such hope for Egypt. The people standing up and saying they wouldn’t take it anymore, the younger members of the Brotherhood breaking away to join with the people. The Muslims and the Christians working together, watching each others backs as they prayed. All calling for a strong secular government.
Then, as in Iran 30+ years ago, the crazies took over the asylum. The Christians and the Secular groups broke down into small ineffective bands that couldn’t agree on what they wanted. While they were arguing, the Brotherhood regrouped. They were ready. They went out into the countryside and talked to the people. They gave out food and water to the people that needed it. They talked of being moderate while following their God of Peace. Outside of the bigger cities, nobody knew who was running against the Brotherhood because they were still in the big cities arguing amongst themselves. Of course they lost big. They weren’t even in the race.
Wasn’t the West supposed to go in and help organize the different parties? Teach them how to run a Democracy? We had a lot of pull with the Army. Couldn’t we have used some of that pull to reign them in? The people of Egypt didn’t help themselves much either with their we want it now attitude. Maybe if they had taken more time to get organized the outcome would have been different. The people believe now that if things don’t work out they will just go back to the streets. I doubt that is going to work a second time. By the time the people realize they are screwed, The Brotherhood will be well entrenched probably alongside the Salafists and most likely the Army to back them. It’s gonna get bloody!
Everyone is assuming that the election of the Islamists is a bad thing. But would the TEA Party exist if Obama hadn’t been elected? I call it Cultural Evolution; the Egyptian voters are going to learn the importance of separation of Mosque and State, when the incompetent and corrupt Islamists can’t make the “trains run on time” or even get people fed.
Things always had to be this way, you can’t take the backward and primitive barbarian Islamic cultures and instantly turn them into the superior American Culture, the bleeding edge of human cultural evolution. The backward and stagnate Islamic cultures were always going to have to take all the steps and learn all the lessons in between.
I say that mankind is now evolving thousands of times faster culturally than it ever has genetically, and even with that cultures evolve at glacial speeds, and only learn lessons the hard way, in that “the burnt hand teaches best”.
I agree: many hard lessons are there to be learned or not and it’ll be sink or swim. This story will be played out over many years and decades. In the end, the Egyptian people will decide their own fate and if they don’t have the moral fiber to die for a cause other than suicide bombing, then they can grow beards and veil women and blame America til doomsday.
Not if one takes Iran as an example where the ordinary folk have no way of getting out of the hole Jimma dug for them, so it will be in Egypt because the US is not going to venture into the removal of SaddamII.
Many innocent people are going to die horribly with a lot of suffering and the political world will wipe its hands and cry crocodile tears.
And if it’s Obama he will be on the green sinking a putt.
Islam is evil. The Arab Spring is the rise of islam. The USA had better address this issue and deal with this threat militarily or there will be hell to pay.
So the Muslim Brotherhood will dissolve parliament, the army will side with them and use live fire on protesters in Tahrir who object. No news as to why the MB just doesn’t do so now if they have that kind of power.
Anyway Egypt is the new Iran and they attack Israel.
THE END.
This doesn’t surprise us informed conservatives, this was essentially a given. Ho-hum. For you detractors of Glenn Beck, chalk up another fulfilled prediction. The problem is that there is absolutely no major media that is presenting Islam in a true light, not even Fox News now that Beck is gone. Think about it for a moment, 300 million Americans with perhaps only 5 million or so fully and correctly informed on the threat of Islam. Scary.
What Beck doesn’t know about Islam or Egypt could fill an astronomical unit with enough hot air for a Dyson Sphere.
What needs to be known about Islam wouldn’t fill a thimble: Islam is evil and is anathema to civilization. Oppose it vigorously or die.
35% of Egyptians are ILLITERATE. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate
What do you expect from those people? Rational thought??…………sheesh………
Strange as it may be, it seems plausible that we are witnessing the birth of the Saudi – Israel alliance! Not only is Iran a common enemy, but just as the vultures are circling Israel, also Saudi Arabia (and you didn’t even mention al-Qaeda in Yemen). At least, they may be able to rely on one another, even if the US is unreliable! Allahu is truly akbar!
I will tell my students that this is what this article contains the proverbial sound of “polishing one’s artillery pieces.”
Or Chicken Little’s hind end.
There is a reason President H. Bush ignored the PNAC’s around him and never invaded Iraq. He knew the consequences and forced Saddam back and stopped Gulf war 1. Invading Iraq would set off an unpredictable chain of events, and President H. Bush was smart enough to shut down PNAC and let the Middle East Stabalize itself.
Invading Iraq was idiotic and short sighted, regardless of the claims that Democracy would spread spread across the Middle East. Nobody can force
” democracy” on a third party if they are not ready and demand it for themselves. Democracy is an ugly process, and cannot be managed as people posting to this article do not seem to understand.
The simplest manner to summarize what is happening in the Middle East is PNAC set out to overthrow rulers in the Middle East, which was accomplished. They just didn’t have anything planned past step 1
Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.
Bush saved Kuwait and they sent 114 million dollars to Islamist parties in Egypt this year alone, making them the single biggest source of foreign aid in this regard despite moronic rumors of the Facebook kids getting tons of U.S. money which turned out to be a bald-faced lie.
That’s why a left wing Israeli voter of Meretz and reader of Haaretz I know was tugging at his hair this week and agonizing at the total ignorance of Western politicians with regard to the region.
The lasting affect of the Iraq has been death to Christians and minorities. The cause and reason for the war was to enrich those in the unending war/military/industrial complex. Way to go, guys. Hope your ill-gotten gain was worth the loss of treasure, blood and National position.
Last month the king of Jordan said in a Washington Post interview that nobody could depend on America any more.
None of our allies or the American people can depend on our government to protect us from our enemies.
Obama made a special point of inviting his BIG favorites,
the Muslim Brotherhood, to his speech in Cairo. Behind the scenes, America worked to oust U.S. ally, moderate Mubarak, and bring to power the Muslim Brotherhood whose stated goal is global Islamic conquest and the DESTRUCTION of civilization.
The results in Egypt are EXACTLY what our government desired.
28 Jan 2011. The Telegraph: Egypt protests: America’s secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising. The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
I’m an American and I don’t give a squat what any “king” anywhere says about anything, least of all a Hashemite plucked from Arabia and given sway over a made up country by morons whose grand kids worked for the East India Company.
Let these people “depend” on themselves if they’re so damned equal and stop lining up outside American embassies trying to escape their conspicuous demonstration of unexceptionalism.
Call Balfour and complain.
I care that the U.S. government ousted U.S. ally, moderate Mubarak, in order to bring to power the Muslim Brotherhood whose goal is the DESTRUCTION of civilization. And that American taxpayers are forced to finance a Muslim Brotherhood Egypt whose goal is the DESTRUCTION of civilization.
I’m making the point that Americans cannot depend on their government to protect them. The Free World has no leader!
Here’s a link to the interview.
The full quote:
Q: “Do you and other leaders in this area believe you cannot rely on the U.S.?”
A: “I think everybody is wary of dealing with the West. . . . Looking at how quickly people turned their backs on Mubarak, I would say that most people are going to try and go their own way. I think there is going to be less coordination with the West and therefore a chance of more misunderstandings. Egypt is trying to develop its own way of moving forward.”
More quotes:
Q: “[The Arab Spring] is a disaster for Israel, isn’t it?”
A: “You have seen what has happened in Egypt [and] Turkey. We are actually the last man standing with our relationship with Israel.”
What, is he suggesting the Turkish AKP isn’t a moderate party? Does he equate them with the Bros in Egypt? No, it’s just a crazy misunderstanding. Besides, the Bros are moderate too, so it doesn’t really mean anything.
Q: “The Israelis are worried the Egyptians will break the [peace] treaty.”
A: “That is a very, very strong possibility.”
…
Q: “If you look five years down the line, do you see yourself relinquishing some power to the parliament?”
A: “Probably sooner. We haven’t shut any doors on relinquishing power. My mission is as quickly as possible to get Jordan to have a prime minister elected from a political party. . . . We need to create new political parties based on programs. . . .
“The Arab Spring didn’t start because of politics; it started because of economics — poverty and unemployment. . . . What keeps me up at night is not political reform because I am clear on where we are going. What keeps me up at night is the economic situation because if people are going to get back on the streets, it is because of economic challenges, not political.”
He’s definitely scared.
The Israelis aren’t worried Egypt will break the peace treaty: there are no doubt some Israeli army who would just like Egypt to try their hand at saber rattling so Israel could take the Suez, Sinai and solve the Gaza problem.
And this time they ain’t going back. This is a red line the Egyptians dare not cross and in any event cannot cross with an American outfitted air and tank force. Egyptian interference in Gaza would also be part of this red line.
First of all, I think the idea of a MB dictatorship in Egypt is foolish, but if it did somehow come about, poking Israel with a stick would bring it crashing right down.
I’m afraid you are right. I’ve suspected this all along. We have a Mullah in the White House.
In an ideal world the United States will stop rewarding failed Islamic states such as Egypt and Pakistan with YOUR MONEY and cut their foreign aid to $0.
By doing so they force the citizens of those countries to accept the full consequences of their actions and enjoy the repression, corruption and for the “pious poor” slow starvation and economic implosion that Islamic state fascism brings whenever it is enacted.
To those who say letting poor militant Islamist countries starve to death is unfair I say Allah will provide, if he does not – Let them eat Korans.
“If you are a secularist, a “modern woman,” or a Christian, it’s probably time to get in line at some foreign embassy for a visa.”
I was just talking about the situation in Egypt yesterday with my mother and said the almost exactly the same thing. Hopefully it is wrong, but it is probably true.
Those lines are a permanent feature at every American embassy in the Third World and have been for decades. You see, the crisis never ends or starts for that matter; it’s just bad and worse. It’s a frickin’ racket.
We should put a going out of business sign on every one and just steal away. Those embassies suck money from America on the one hand and suck failure into America with the other. Is there a good reason why 9 out of 10 cab drivers in Minneapolis is a Somali or Ethiopian – really?
Gaddafi was reformed and cooperating fully. Gaddafi met with, and had his photo taken with Condi Rice, UK’s Tony Blair and many European leaders. Gaddafi called Obama, his son. But Obama and his administration preferred Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah terrorists rather than Gaddafi. Gaddafi was hunted down by NATO and violently physically and sexually assaulted and murdered by anti-Gaddafi rebels. Gaddafi’s son was captured at the same time and murdered soon after. The lesson: Cooperate with America and this is what will happen to you.
Frontpagemag.com – Admiral James Stavridis, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, and the commander of the U.S. European Command told the U.S. Senate
that Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah fighters are among the Libyan rebels
currently receiving support from the US and its NATO allies. This was
confirmed by one of the Libyan rebel officers, Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi, who leads one of the Al-Qaeda units.
(US Aid to Israel’s Enemies, Oct 13th, 2011, frontpagemag.com)
U.S/NATO joined with Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah terrorists to wage relentless war for months. Bombing Libya back to the stone age.
Barbaric Al Qaeda and Hezbollah who MURDER our troops in Iraq were considered desirable for placing in power in Libya. US/NATO have great guilt in making the world a far more dangerous place.
Which nation and leader is targeted next? And how long is the list?
UK DAILY MAIL: 7,000 held in Libya’s new reign of fear and torture.
UN raises concerns of torture and ill-treatment. Many held simply because they have darker skin. Thousands of people including women and children are being held illegally and tortured by rebels who helped oust Colonel Gaddafi. The UN said Tawergas are ‘reported to have been targeted in revenge killings, or taken by armed men from their homes, checkpoints and hospitals and some allegedly later abused or executed in detention’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2065570/7-000-held-Libyas-new-reign-fear-torture.html
These are the monsters brought to power by US/NATO who waged war for months for these savages. The International Criminal Court will NEVER bring them to justice. There is NO ONE to protect the world’s innocents.
As long as the mainstream media has a stranglehold on the American public, we are doomed. It is truly media malpractice. Propoganda. The media is willfully creating an erroneously informed citizenry. Couple that with the collapse of our education system and things look quite dismal. How to break this monopoloy? That is the $64,000 question (or $4,560,980 question, adjusted for inflation).
The International Left and the Jihadists are political bedfellows. None of this was done “mistakenly” by the Obama Administration. They knew EXACTLY who they were replacing Mubarak and Ghaddafi with.
Obama is indeed an historical first…the first internal enemy president.
In February I wrote: It is said that a second marriage is the triumph of hope over experience. Right now, the optimism that I hear from the administration and the MSM in the midst of a very fluid situation sounds very much like the hope for the second marriage.
The problem with the optimism that many are expressing for the revolutions in the Middle East is that, while there are many examples of happy marriages, there are no examples of democratic Islamist regimes. The Middle East was substantially converted to Islam following the dictates and example of Muhammad who’se rule and religion was spread by the sword. This situation has not changed substantially since Mohammad’s death in 632. Before Mohammad the region was ruled by Romans, king and Pharaohs; after him it was ruled by Caliphs. There is no – zero – example of Democracy in the Middle East with the exception of Israel and a very shaky state – Iraq – which was created, nurtured and shaped by the American military following the invasion under George Bush. To repeat, there is no history or political culture of representative government in the Middle East.
The one unifying factor in the region is Islam, a religion that demands submission to its political and theological dictates on pain of death. Not since Henry the Eight created the English church and became its political head have rulers held such secular and religious power.
It is said that in every human breast there is the desire to be free. Perhaps, but it’s also true that in many human breasts is the desire to force others to our will. To believe what we believe and agree with our ideas. In the dominant culture in America that wish is expressed in the demand that Glenn Beck should be fired, that Rush Limbaugh should be banned and Sarah Palin should shut up. In many Islamic countries it’s expressed in beheading, hanging or stoning.
The Egyptian people have been misruled by Mubarak for decades. But he’s not the first or the worst. The people in the Middle East have been misruled for centuries. If the levelers in America were truly concerned about wealth discrepancies, they would slink away from criticizing American wealth disparities and focus on the truly incredible differences between the rich and the poor in Africa and the Middle East.
With no history of democracy and a culture and religion that disdains individual freedom, the concept that democracy will spring from the revolutions that are now engulfing the region is unrealistic. Remember what we were told about the revolution in China: that Mao was an agrarian reformer. Castro was sold as a freedom fighter. We helped overthrow the Shah to usher in a repressive theocracy despite a population that favors Western values.
And, God help us, we have a President who really doesn’t like the America he was elected to lead.
I would like to be wrong, but Democracy is a rare flower; repression and authoritarianism is the global rule not the exception. Hoping and wishing that the people of Egypt will throw off the yoke of literally millennia of repression – all by themselves – and usher in the rule of law and a representative government is as believable as the Easter Bunny.
I pray I’m wrong, and would love to have to eat my words in a year. But the odds are loaded heavily in my favor. The problem is, if I’m right, we lose and so do the poor people of the Middle East.
What an exceptionally well stated and thought out comment! I believe you will be proven 100% correct, sadly, by this time next year.
Obama says or does one hopeless thing after another. To say he is merely inept is flattering him! He is dangerous because he is stupid…with the power to indulge his fantasies. He has babblers like Pelosi and Reid to howl support for his inane, if not insane policies. Our only recourse is the mother of all elections that will drive him and his ilk under cover for the next 100 years. For better or worse, Obama has set back the Black politician as a force for at least 20 years, which is a tragedy for the likes of Rep. Alan West, who is a superb representative.
You hit the nail on the head with each point you make.