What Do Totalitarians Do When They Gain Power Democratically?
By Barry Rubin
In the last scene of the film “The Candidate,” about a U.S. Senate election, the victorious candidate expresses American cynicism about politics by asking, “What do we do now?” The idea is that politicians just want to get into power but have no idea of how to deal with problems or even a coherent worldview. Soon deadlock will set in and nothing is really going to change. It is the sarcasm fit for an open, non-ideological system where individual ambition prevails. But as long as there’s always another election, we know that things will be all right and life will be tolerable.
Not so in the Arabic-speaking Middle East. These politicians know precisely what they want to do: seize state power (albeit by peaceful means, if possible), fundamentally transform their societies, and hold onto state power forever. And they are capable of changing things a lot.
Naïve Western officials, journalists, and “experts” think that an electoral victory for the Islamists is just fine and dandy. They will obey the rules; be worn down by the necessary compromises of democratic politics; have to focus their effortson collecting garbage, running schools, and fixing roads; and then another election will come along and things will always be all right.
They come close to saying: “Ha, ha, ha! They’re in power? So what can they possibly do with control over the state and all of its resources to change anything significantly? There are democratic rules after all!”
That’s not how it works.
Is this anything new? Consider these quotations from a Middle East leader:
Before taking power: “The foundation of our Islamic government is based on freedom of dialogue and we will fight against any kind of censorship.”
Before taking power: “Personal desire, age and my health do not allow me to personally have a role in running the country after the fall of the current system.”
After taking power: “Those who are trying to bring corruption and destruction to our country in the name of democracy will be oppressed. They are worse than Jews, and they must be hanged.”
Who said these things? Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Back to 2011. The media-expert-journalist complex has missed every element of this year’s big Middle East story until it was painfully obvious and too late to do anything about it:
–Islamists are strong not weak.
–Moderate “Facebook kid” democrats can’t compete with them.
—Islamists are radical not moderate.
Now we are on to the fourth point. When totalitarians take power, by election or other means, they proceed to consolidate power. There are ways to do this other than lining up all of your opponents and shooting them or chopping off their heads. The strategy is to take control of national institutions, transform the national debate, use the amount of repression that’s necessary, and pursue populist policies (both economic and demagogic) to win mass support.
This is what the Turkish model is all about. After several years you get reelected; or, in Iran’s case, steal the election; or, in the case of the Palestinian Authority’s and Hamas, stop holding elections altogether.
Let’s look at some of the details. For two centuries we’ve seen how non-democratic revolutions work. At the moment when the old regime is overthrown, one hundred flowers bloom and one hundred schools of thought contend. It is a moment of euphoria when anything seems possible. Nobody could possibly believe that a repressive society could possibly return. In the words of Wordsworth on the French Revolution,
“Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive/
But to be young was very heaven!”
Nature, however, (that’s human nature) abhors a political vacuum. This outburst of freedom is due to the fact that there is no government, no political system, and that whatever authorities exist are letting people blow off steam.
Then comes the new regime. In this case it is a regime led by people who believe to the depths of their being that the master of the universe has ordained precisely what the laws of the land should be, how society is conducted, and that no human mind can formulate proper legislation to the contrary. Of course, they are interpreting the will of the divine being to their own specifications but they don’t know that and won’t believe you if you tell them that.
The question is not what is to be done but how much they can get away with doing at any given moment. Such is “moderate Islamism.”
And hence they begin the short march through the institutions:
–Education. Textbooks to be rewritten; the principle that Islam is the only proper religion to be made as central as possible; all teaching of Islam according to their interpretation. Christians and Jews are evil; non-Muslims are enemies; Israel is demonic and must be destroyed. Teachers and administrators who reject their program of indoctrination to be fired; opportunists and careerists will go along.
–Government bureaucracies. The hiring of as many ideological supporters as possible; those who go along will be promoted; those who don’t will be fired or pushed aside. Requirements to be altered so that religious educational certificates will be made equal to academic education degrees in qualifying for high posts. If your wife doesn’t wear a hijab forget about being promoted.
–Media. Government control over state-run media will be renewed and strengthened. Licenses, censorship, subsidies, the whole panoply of government powers will be applied to reward flatterers and punish critics. If necessary, riots will be organized, threats made, fines imposed on those who don’t toe the line, though some margin of freedom will be permitted as long as it threatens nothing.
–Constitution. A new constitution will be written by a commission dominated by Islamists. In some cases they will do what they want—Sharia as the “main source” or “the source” of law—while in others they will hold back and be patient—promises that everyone will have equal rights. The new constitution, however, will provide the basis for Islamizing Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Turkey, etc.
–Religion. The ministry of religion will be under Brotherhood control. That means it can decide which mosques can be built or not built; who gets hired as imam in each mosque; what the sermons say; which preachers get on state television and radio, etc. Normative Islam will be Muslim Brotherhood Islam. The existing gap may not be wide but it is significant nonetheless. Eventually, the Brotherhood will get in control of naming the mufti of Egypt and the head of al-Azhar University. There will be only one interpretation of Islam and it will prevail through the country and shape the minds and behavior of Egyptians.
–Courts. There are some courageous judges but the Brotherhood will tame the courts by the power to control who becomes a judge, shaping the law, intimidation, and just not enforcing any decision they don’t like.
–Army. The Brotherhood will be patient. The deal just struck between the Brothers and the soldiers might be the precedent for arrangements under the new regime. The Islamists leave the army alone to control its budget and run its business enterprises; the army does not interfere with the Brotherhood’s governing of the country. Remember that while the now-broken Turkish army consciously saw itself as secularist, the Egyptian army holds no such doctrine. Many of the officers are quite pious.
The issue here, then, is not one of doctrine or of power—the army does not want political power—but related to the officers’ economic self-interest. Consequently, the Egyptian army can accept an Islamist regime far easier than observers think.
The other potential point of collision is if the regime wants to do something that the army deems to be creating a mess in which it would suffer. That would include a war with Israel that the army would have to fight (and lose) or actions that would alienate the United States to the point that it cut off aid.
I’m not joking when I say that literally nothing the Egyptian regime would do short of a shooting war with Israel would persuade the Obama Administration to cut off aid. There are a number of ways the regime could find to avoid pushing the army to the point of rebellion. And of course the Islamists would be working steadily to infiltrate the army, propagandize the soldiers, and work with opportunist officers who want to promote their career.
–The Presidency: This is the other remaining potential roadblock to an Islamist Egypt. If presidential elections are held, as now currently scheduled, in June 2012 who will win? The only person who can possibly beat the Islamist candidate is the 75-year-old Amr Musa.
A demagogic radical nationalist, Musa is also somewhat tempered by his diplomatic experience and some pragmatic impulses. Yet the liberal reformers won’t support him and will divide the vote to the point where the Brotherhood candidate will probably win.
Folks, it doesn’t look good for Egypt. So when you read articles minimizing the threat if the “moderate Islamist” Muslim Brotherhood takes over, ask them if they can refute the above article. Note, too,that the kind of slow, behind-the-scenes takeover and transformation I discuss above is not the stuff of headlines. The mass media haven’t even gotten around to reporting and the Western leaders and “experts” haven’t properly analyzed these things in Turkey. Only when the process is far advanced are they likely to notice.
What do you mean, we are on to the fourth point? Who has admitted that Islamists are radical, not moderate? Heck, who has even admitted that Islamists are Islamists, not secular? The whole Obama administration hasn’t yet admitted that Hamas is radical, or Abbas is radical, or that Erdogan is radical. The most they ‘fess up to in Egypt is a twinge of anxiety about the Muslim Brotherhood’s intentions.
The West is in denial. History has taught it nothing about how totalitarians use street protests and intrigues to maneuver themselves into power. We’ve seen this happen in the past century in Russia, Italy and then Germany. The reason the Islamists sound moderate now is for exactly the same reasons Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler were moderate in their early phases is they needed to consolidate power and that meant giving priority to the stability of their new regimes. Once that was done, they or their successors – Stalin in Russia – were free to pursue their real program. The Islamists in the Middle East will do exactly the same thing. They are not democrats and are not so naive that they will ever surrender power. As Dr. Rubin pointed out, none of this will be noticed in the West until its too late.
Excellent comment!
It is not an excellent comment. In what world do Islamists chant “Bread, justice, freedom?” If you say that’s “code” I say you’re indulging in wishful thinking. Not everything is something else, a hidden secret – this is a mode of thinking typical of Paulo Freire’s Marxist Critical Pedagogy where nothing is accepted at face value. That is as stupid as accepting everything at face value.
Let facts talk. Virtually every comment about Egypt at PJM consists of cynical/wishful thinking devoid of facts and gloating. When the MB takes over Egypt, write about it. Every year the Cubs go out for a World Series title and for decades they have failed. Writing as if the MB, the 80+ year old Cubs of the Middle East, will suddenly grab the ring just because you like the idea is foolish.
Well, Rubin has history on his side. You have naivete. I’d like to see the world in benign terms too but I’ve lived too long. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t
end well, no matter how much wishful thinking would have it otherwise.
Dr. Rubin, good points. And the Egyptian army has no reason to stop the Islamists because it won’t get backing from the Obama Administration and Europe to stop them, so why bother? There’s upside to remaining in power if you’re going to get criticized for it. Every one has accepted that fact that Islamism is the wave of the future and no one wants to be left behind. We’re quite likely to see an Islamist Middle East take shape by next year.
I wonder how the liberal press will reconcile their view that President Bush, who recognized the danger of radical Islam, was stupid, while Obama who dismissed it, is brilliant?
If Bush recognized the danger of radical Islam, why did he push for Hamas
to be included in Palestinian Authority elections in 2006, which led to their
receiving a plurality, becoming part of the governement and seizing control of
the Gaza Strip from the PA in 2007. We Israelis are now facing a government in Gaza that is steadily increasing the supply and strength of its weapons
(they can now fire rockets an mortars at major cities like Beersheva and
Ashkelon) and will surely gain support from their Muslim Brothers (Hamas is
an offshoot of the MB) in Egypt.
I completely agree with the article. If you could explain what’s going on in Egypt, with all these protests. If the Muslim Brotherhood and the Military are working together, what are all the protest about?
They are secular/civil protesters and they are the ones in Tahrir Square and have been the last week. The Muslim Brotherhood turned their backs on Tahrir after a one day protest a week ago and have declared they will not join.
No one knows for certain if the MB is working with the army or on the outside looking in. The MB doesn’t act like a group with footsoldier power but like one that must maneuver.
The head of the MB political party was turned out of Tahrir this week; the protesters are angry at them. The protesters have forbidden any political campaign signs in Tahrir and they are calling the shots. The MB is a long way from power, contrary to what many are saying. They say it because they’re in love with the idea, not because they know what’s happening in Egypt.
Certainly there are forces in Egypt other than the Muslim Brotherhood and
demonstrators who are secular or not supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.
But the problem is that the MB ( and this is not just the opinion of Prof Rubin and PJ Media, but many observers and scholars)are the most organized, while the liberals are fragmented into different parties and not well organized. So, in a real democratic election, the MB could win at least a plurality in parliament,
get control of critical ministries and increase their power.
But I hope I am wrong and you are right and there is more reason for optimism.
I would be happy to read more of why you think that the MB is weaker than Dr. Rubin and PJ think.
Dr. Rubin.
Your analisys are always good, but I would like to make a point. I would like to offer another view of the future.
You desctibe long political and socities transitions which takes few years. The new goverment in egypht have only few monthes before the economical collapse.
Every new goverment (muslim or non muslim) might not be able to feed 80 milion citizens in few monthes from now.
So political assesment might not be Hitler/Lenin/Erdogan/Mosolini/Kadafi etc..The future might look like Somalia/Sudan/Kongo.
Both options are very bad for everyone – but you should be aware for the second option.
Why did President Barack Hussein Obama give a major speech in Cairo? It was full of falsehoods about how wonderful Islam is – Muslims invented the printing press, when it was Gutenberg in Mainz who did so; Muslims invented the compass, when it was the Chinese who did so; Muslims founded the first university, when it was Italians who did so in Bologna. Has he said anything about the Copts in Egypt? No, he is busily attacking Israel.
“I’m not joking when I say that literally nothing the Egyptian regime would do short of a shooting war with Israel would persuade the Obama Administration to cut off aid.”
Mr. Rubin, you are being naive. If President Hussein wins a second term, not only would he not cut off aid to such an Islamonazi government, he would INCREASE aid with the aim of finishing off Israel.
s/social*/Islam*
Thanks for the recapitulation of communist, fascist, socialist, nazism methods, substituting the word “Islam.”
OWS, Moslem Brotherhood,… doesn’t matter. Politicians lie. Winners win and implement their policies. “Long march” here, “short march” there. Clinton said the regime of the Ayatollahs were progressives like him. He was right.
Really interesting article, I except looking at the past to analyze and reflect on a possible future possibilities but why is Turkey such a bad case? The leadership is far from perfect but he has only spoken rhetoric with regards to Israel, and at the end of the day he cooperates to some extent with the west, yes he doesn’t like Israel but so what?
A lot of people in the West see Turkey as a good Islamic country and although I understand your points, I can clearly understand why people see Turkey as a good template for future Arab countries.
Basically could it be that the “Islamist” Turkey is just a good compromise and as long as he doesn’t strike or sponsor terrorism (Fotilla doesn’t count) maybe its a better than those unpredictable dictators and worth embracing as a first step to real western democracy?
The leadership has jailed its political opponents and shut down opposing newspapers and television stations, and calls for war against Turkey’s allies and solidarity with other totalitarians and warmongers. This is very “far from perfect”.
Those of us over the age of 30 remember Turkey as a strictly secular, emphatically non-Islamic country. Freethinking was part of the country’s moral constitution and now it has been eliminated, to the point that some people now suppose it to be an Islamic country.
It does count. The purpose of the flotilla is to establish an arms route to Gaza by establishing a new doctrine of international law that prevents Israel from searching any ships bound for countries with which it is at war. As the Gaza regime uses terrorism as a tactic, attempts to establish an arms route to them count as promoting terrorism. In the specific case of Turkey, Turkey had sent a ship full of recruits who had joined Hamas and wanted to commit acts of war and terrorism. Turkey was giving material aid to terrorists.
Let me repeat that those of us over 30 remember Turkey being a “real western democracy”. Those of us over 50 remember Lebanon being one as well, before the Palestinians came and started massacring the Christians. We also remember the exact same thing being said about Iran when the Shah was removed, and more recently about Musharraf in Pakistan which has seen a severe backslide in civil liberties and an increase in totalitarianism since the end of the dictator and the return to civil law.
We can also see through the past three centuries of history that revolutions usually end with a new dictator who is worse than the last guy, and we see the wars that religious extremism has brought to the world throughout human history, and we have the relatively fresh examples of the Nazis and the Khmer Rouge to see what happens when people come into power on a platform of destroying their enemies. Now in the Middle East we have revolutions led by religious extremists on a platform of destroying their enemies, and they have the greatest support from private money, popular institutions, and foreign powers. Some caution is advisable.
A very good description of what has been taking place in Turkey. As the last paragraph implies, the western media is only now and only partly (if at all) realizing what has been happening there, with more journalists in prison than any other country in the World, with complete control over the appointment of judges, prosecutors and the final word on their decisions, thousands of civic leaders, professors, human rights activists and officers also in prison and with all opposition suppressed, it is now time to write a new constitution. .
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