On November 28, Egyptians will vote for a parliament which will also write the country’s new constitution. The Western media at first told us that the Muslim Brotherhood was weak and unimportant as well as moderate. Now, when it’s too late, the Western media is admitting they are strong and radical. But the Obama administration insists they are strong and moderate.
The last time I read an article in the Atlantic on the Brotherhood, it claimed that the group was a joke and only had 13 percent support. Now it is publishing an article that takes it for granted that the Brotherhood will win the election.
There’s a new poll out that I don’t think is accurate, but keep reading and I’ll tell you why it is misleading in a moment.
According to the poll, 38 percent of Egyptians would vote for the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party. (Remember when we were told that this was a moderate split-off from the Brotherhood?) and 12 percent would vote for the even more radical al-Nour Party.
Why, then, do I think this poll isn’t accurate? Because it was a poll conducted on Facebook. Get it? Of course the poll isn’t scientific and people can cheat. But this was done on Facebook, supposedly the domain of the moderates. Thus, it might actually understate the Islamists’ appeal!
(By the way, you want women candidates? The Brotherhood has women candidates. Unfortunately, they think precisely the same way as the male candidates.)
Also in the Islamists’ favor is the fact that their enemies will split their votes and thus the Brotherhood is likely to end up with a higher percentage of the seats than the percentage of the votes it receives.
A third factor in the poll tending to help the Islamists is that 26 percent said they hadn’t decided yet, which means even more could choose the Brotherhood.
The army is increasingly seen as the Brotherhood’s rival for power. It’s interesting to note that the moderates are starting to pull back from opposing the military, panicking about the Brotherhood’s power and perhaps beginning to wonder whether they might be better off if the junta continues to have veto power.
The Obama administration, however, opposes the military’s continued authority. In theory this means it is siding with good, democratic, civilian reformists who just want democracy.
In practice, it means the U.S. government is siding with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Meawhile, the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood held its first public event and announced it would organize a political party, led by Suleiman Abdelkader. The guest speakers included a representative of the Tunisian Ennahda party and someone from the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.
So here’s the bottom line. There’s a new power in the Middle East. It is an alliance of the Muslim Brotherhood groups already ruling the Gaza Strip (Hamas), Egypt and Tunisia (likely to be ruling parties), Libya, Syria, and Jordan. That’s pretty impressive.
They are all dedicated to revolution (even if it has to be achieved through the ballet box) and genocide against the Jews in Israel.
And the U.S. government supports them.
How can anyone believe this will turn out well? Those most powerful in the West do.
How can anyone not be thoroughly ashamed for their persistent misreading of the situation since January? Those most powerful in the West aren’t.
I don’t care what The Atlantic writes: any mag that would employ Ta-Nahesi Coates as a senior editor has no credibility on any level. What do they know about Egypt?
In fact, the moderates are not second guessing their opposition to the military in Egypt but bitterly oppose them and have all along. It is the salafis and MB who are trying to appear to oppose the army while sidling up as close to the army as possible.
For all the derisive attitude the MB and salafis have towards the secular and civil element within the revolution, the truth is that the salafis and MB can’t put foot soldiers onto Tahrir Square without bussing them in from other governates.
Hundreds have been injured in Cairo in the last 48 hours fighting the police and the more this happens the more distant the elections will become. You cannot hold elections in such a climate and so this plays right into the army’s hands.
Many people have realized since the day Mubarak stepped down that in fact nothing had been won but not enough to continue the revolt. The people continue to be split and it remains to be seen whether the Egyptians can muster the numbers that toppled Mubarak.
One thing is for sure, this new revolt is in Alexandria, Suez, Cairo and other places and the Egyptians mistrust the army more than at any time since Mubarak stepped down. Forget the MB and salafis: they are not the major players everyone thinks. This is about a hell of a lot more than a nominal advancement or status quo of Sharia within a constitution already heavily Islamic in a heavily Islamic country. To paraphrase Bernard Lewis, Muslims are simply Muslims.
Things are coming to a head as the army will be increasingly forced to show their true hand and that is that they will not give up power. Forget the salafis: they vowed to not leave Tahrir Square until the army met their demands and were gone before the police swept the square that night.
You must have evidence for stating that the US position toward the Muslim Brotherhood is a mistake. Do you mind telling us what is your evidence? It is more than likely that since anti- Semite Obama went straight to Cairo Egypt after his election to spread his caring for Islam that he truly is routing for the Islamic Brotherhood no matter what. Then consider his 20 years cheering Wright’s anti- Semitic and anti- Israel rants or his being an organizer of the Million Men March when Farrakhan’s rants against Jews and Israel resulted in multitudes going wild and cheering every rant.
From where I see the situation, it is far from being a mistake by anti- Semite Obama. He even invented new borders for Israel before any negotiations: “The 1967 line.” Obama doesn’t make mistakes when it comes to Israel and Arabs/ Islam. He consumed Liberation Theology from Wright and anti- Israel religion. In 2012 this ex- Democrat will vote for anyone running against Obama.
The last word should be “aren’t”
I notice typos in Rubin’s posts here and there, however there are very few analyses which show greater understanding of reality than his articles. Daniel Pipes comes to mind. If everyone in the West took to heart the insights of these who great minds we wouldn’t be in this situation.
And “the ballet box” should be “the ballot box”.
I agree with Dallas that content trumps the occasional typo, but still I encourage prof. Rubin to doublecheck for typos since, unlike us in the comments, he can edit his posts (I always get frustrated when I notice my typos after publishing my comment and can’t do anything about it).
Re typos, I have learned from my progressive and Arab acquaintances. When there is a mistake, blame someone else, especially if they are not in the room. When all else fails I blame my fingers…evil things that they are.
I punish my fingers for their misdeeds by making them type more and more, until morale improves.
ta
This is Carter II on steroids, the biggest strategic mistake by the West in the last five hundred years.
Its actually worse than that. What Dr. Rubin did NOT mention is the Obama Administration is actually financing Islamist parties and teaching them how to win elections! This would be akin to the US government helping the Nazi and Communist parties win power in elections in Germany in the 1930s and Europe in the late 1940s. Its beyond stupid. For some reason, Western elites think its a great idea to install anti-Western, radical and revolutionary Islamist regimes across the Middle East in the misguided notion they will be grateful to the West for helping them come to power. Look how well that worked out in Iran and Lebanon. The few secularists in the Middle East have no reason to look to the West for inspiration. Forget it. A new Dark Age is dawning in the Middle East and it won’t be a democratic, secular and progressive one. It will be a Islamic tyrannical nightmare.
There’s an article in FPM about the Obama Administration doing just that. Thanks, NormanF.
By the way, “Its beyond stupid.” should be “It’s beyond stupid.” And use “it’s” in “its a great idea . . .”
The Muslim brotherhood are going to establish a good power base across the middle east. I don,t think they care if they win outright power in Egypt or any other mid east country right now. They,ll gain enough power to create havoc for everyone else.
The ‘Arab spring’ is a long way from being over. look at Egypt today. The MB want the elections to go ahead without any power being retained by the military. We in the west support that idea. What we don,t know is, what will the Egyptian military look like under the control of the MB.
I, an American, was able to enter Tahrir Square yesterday where there are thousands of protesters. They are checking IDs.
Mohamed El-Beltagi, the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood Freedom and Justice Party, was thrown out before even entering.
So much for dumb stereotypes about what’s happening in Egypt. Anti-American? Egyptians resent the money coming into the religious parties from the Gulf states and the fact that when the going is toughest the MB and salafis never seem to be around.
To be fair to the Atlantic, I did find this article from February by Eric Trager, which basically said the MB was biding its time until it could take over “And therein lies the true genius of the Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy: It knows that it can win in the long run, if it can emerge relatively unscathed over the short run.” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/02/the-muslim-brotherhoods-strategy-in-egypt/71040/
So there was some sense mixed in with the predictable idiocy from the likes of Andrew Sullivan et. al.
Yeah, the MB are real geniuses: they’ve been laying in the weeds since 1928 waiting for just the right moment. Kinda like the Chicago Cubs.
I came across this map of current Egyptian political parties. On the surface one sees a dynamic democratic process – after all there are multiple parties and distinct individuals behind them. And the map doesn’t indicate the relative popularity, positions and strengths.
http://www.arabist.net/storage/uploads/Map%20of%20EG%20Political%20Parties%2015.11.2011%20-2.pdf
Part of the reason for the protest in part was that a draft of the proposed new Constitution would have effectively insulated the army from civilian oversight and control. One can imagine how well the Islamists reacted to it. In the current violence in the street, the opposition may now be overplaying its hand. The Egyptian army had no good reason to continue to support the aged and discredited Mubarak. But it has every reason to protect its power, perks and privileges and its repressive actions are typical of an Arab regime under threat. It has no incentive to back down and to compromise. That is not how challenges to power are settled in the Arab World.
Why is Jordan included on your Islamist list? Aren’t they part of the Gulf Monarchy group? I don’t recall the Hashemites or Jordanian military supporting the Islamists.
I live in Upper Egypt in Luxor. I ask many people about the election and every Egyptian wants sharia Islamia. There is a mass of very very uneducated people here. The Salafists have set up their stalls outside mosques, they give people meat, most of the men do all the prayers every day and the women all wear hijab unless they are minority Christian. The people love the Islamists who give them things as most of them see no further than the next few days. When I have tried to discuss this with the more intelligent and educated person that can speak English the answer is always the same. ‘People do not interpret Islam correctly’ or ‘they do not understand Islam’. I have had the usual crap that I should read the Koran and then I will understand better. I hope that the military keep control as they have done in Algeria, its the only answer or this country will be destroyed. The people are too dumb to understand economics.