Out of Tune in Tunisia: What’s Really Going on There and Throughout the Arab World
Let’s step back, keep an open mind, avoid stereotypes and preconceptions, and ask: What is the current political situation in Tunisia? Simple. The Islamists aren’t ready for the concert. They are just tuning up. Still, they’ve handed out programs so we should know what’s going to be played.
First and foremost, let’s remember that Tunisia is not going to become a radical Islamist state within the next year. The whole revolution in the Islamist revolution is the understanding—learned largely from Turkey—that the movement can operate by stealth, one step at a time, winning elections, taking over institutions, and only emerging fully at the end of that process.
This does not prove they are moderate; it proves that they are smart. And you know what that proves about those gullible enough to be taken in by the trickery.
Remember what happened with Communism. Karl Marx started by proclaiming that the Communists disdained to conceal their aims and the next thing you know they are all wearing costumes labeled “agrarian reformers,” “progressives,” and moderates.
So far I have not seen a single analyst quoted in any “mainstream” publication warning about the Tunisian Islamists possibly not being moderate. The unanimity of opinions, the lack of doubt, and the censoring out of evidence to the contrary is astonishing. We can’t even get a story that says most people say they are okay while others warn that this isn’t true. If these elements in the Western elite were fish, all anglers wouldn’t need bait, they’d just put a note on the hook saying, “This is not a hook.”
With this kind of start, the fact that the Ennahda party doesn’t start cutting off heads next week will be used by Western governments, experts, and media to “prove” that it’s moderate. And it doesn’t matter if the party’s leader said a few months ago: ”Gaza, like Hanoi in the 1960s and Cuba and Algeria, is the model of freedom today”–(Thanks to Martin Kramer for pointing this out.)–because it was in Arabic and no Western media will report it.
That party received 90 of 217 seats in the assembly, just over 40 percent. Therefore, they are short of a majority. Remember that this is just a one-year body to write a new Constitution and to appoint an interim president and government until the real elections. So the party’s strategy is to get as much as possible but not to scare people. Businesses, foreign aid donors, tourists, and others must be kept calm. All the while, the Islamists will work to elect a president and get a parliamentary majority in the future.
Who will they have to work with in the mean time? The Congress for the Republic (CPR) won 30 seats and the Ettakatol won 21 seats. (I cannot resist the temptation to remark that when the Islamists are through with it, Tunisia will definitely need CPR!) These are leftist parties and Ennahda’s coalition partners.
What does this tell us? On social issues, the Islamists will have to be careful but they can find more common ground with the leftists on economic and foreign policy issues. By building the power of the state and weakening the business sector—which the leftists want—Ennahda lays the basis for its future domination of the society through controlling a strong state.
On foreign policy, the left shares the Islamists’ desire to take a tougher line toward the West and against Israel. In the shorter run, they will not want to antagonize Europe or the United States. But this lays a foundation for a longer-term turn of public opinion against the West and toward other Islamist states. As we saw in Turkey, a stealth Islamist government can turn around public opinion with surprising speed using patriotism and religious fervor.
There’s another hugely important point here: the inability of the anti-Islamist or even non-Islamist parties to unite. The incompetence and divisions among the secular parties in Turkey was a major factor in the Islamists’ triumph. In the Palestinian elections, Fatah candidates ran against each other, split the vote, and ensured the victory of Hamas. In Egypt, three major “liberal” parties are running against each other, ensuring that the Muslim Brotherhood will come in first.
The four main left and liberal parties combined received the same number of seats as the Islamists. Imagine how many they would have won if they could have formed a united front. And, of course, preventing such a front is one of the main incentives for the Islamists to portray themselves as moderates.
As anyone who has ever studied Communism knows, maintaining discipline and ensuring that there is one “party line” is a major reason why anti-democratic political movements can do so well in playing the democratic game.
Now, what party was most militantly anti-Islamist? The Petition for Justice and Development Party, financed by a London-based businessman named Hechmi Haamdi. It gained 19 seats. So this party must be discredited.
How? By charging that it has links to the old regime (which might be true) and disqualifying some of its candidates for “financial irregularities” (which might also be true). But the law can be used disproportionately against the anti-Islamists. Haamdi has since said that his party will withdraw from the assembly which, if true, would strengthen the Islamists’ hand. Another liberal secularist party, the Progressive Democratic Party, came in fourth with 17 seats. Both of the liberal parties refused to join an Islamist-led coalition, which tells you something important about their assessment of “moderate Islamism.”
The Tunisian Islamists are careful. They don’t want to take total power right away. And when they finally do, it would be useful to preserve a pluralist facade, powerless secular parties kept in existence as a way to fool the West into believing they are democrats. Its a 1 1/2 party system – with Islamists set to rule long term with a powerless and largely picturesque opposition.
It won’t take long for them to implement this strategy. And not just in Tunisia but across the Arab World.
Actually, their first order of business will be to infiltrate the military.
“What does this tell us? On social issues the Islamists will have to be careful, but they can find more common ground with the leftists on economic and foreign policy issues.”
Gee, isn’t that what Glenn Beck has been saying all along? That the Islamists and leftists are working together world wide?
Glenn Beck makes mistakes, but far less mistakes and far less crucial ones than the old media.
Oh how tired some of us are of hearing the word “moderate” when applied to an Islamist. Either one follows the Koran i.e. is a believer, or one does not. Those that do are dangerous to the rest of us who do not. The USA has got to figure this out sooner rather than later. What is unknown is whether or not the POTUS is a believer in the Koran. Needed: more US leaders to stand up and speak the truth about the Muslim Brotherhood and other like-minded organizations.
I don’t think Obama is a believer in the Koran. I think he’s a believer in neo-Marxism with sympathy for Muslims both because of his ideological leaning and his personal background and family. Remember he’s not alone in this administration, some of the leftists there are even more radical than he is. They wouldn’t have different policies, except perhaps for the worse (Samantha Powers would have the American army invade Israel at the first opportunity and she has no Muslim background, and she’s even married to a Jew). One doesn’t have to be a Muslim to help the Islamists and support jihad – it’s enough to be a leftist, that’s what leftists do these days. They think that by aligning themselves with the Muslims, preferably of the revolutionary kind, they could together bring down the “Evil Empire” (i.e. USA), capitalism and the male-white-Christian hegemony.
As for the word “moderate”, I get the distinction between moderate and extremist or radical Muslims, though mainstream Islam is far from moderate by Western standards (majorities in Muslim-majority countries supporting the death penalty for apostasy and blasphemy isn’t what we call moderate), but with time the distinctions became more and more “nuanced”. In the past Islamism was seen as the opposite of moderate Muslims, but today we not only make a distinction between moderate Muslims vs. Islamists and other extremists and radicals, but we also make a distinction between moderate Islamists and extremist Islamists. Apparently there are moderate-exteremists, extremist-extremists, moderate-exteremist-extremists and extremist-extremist-extremists. I wonder how far will we go with that. Will we at some point have moderate-extremist-extremist-extremist-extremists and extremist-extremist-extremist-extremist-extremists? And maybe at some point moderate-extremist-extremist-extremist-extremist-extremist-extremists and extremist-extremist-extremist-extremist-extremist-extremist-extremists? Seems we will go to any extrem to deny the reality of Islamic extremism.
These countries are only as dangerous as their immigrants to the West. Cut off immigration and it is cutting the head off the snake. The middle east has no capacity to do anything outside of terrorism and taking advantage of a West that values a transvestite and Sikh as much as the cultures that built the West.
Note: it wasn’t transvestites and Sikhs; or Muslims or the Third World. Stop immigration, stop viewing our Constitution as a suicide pact and what happens in Tunisia is immaterial. Without surplus population emigrating out of Islam-land, they will implode. Rats only thrive on the infrastructure not made by rats. Declare rats fully equal and throw money and programs at that concept, and you have the United States of America today.
Jane, Bravo Company is in love with you! If you don’t want rats in the kitchen, just keep the door shut! Now, lets collect all the rats and ship them back to Ratville!
Bosnian Muslim terrorists attack US Embassy
Read more:
http://searchlight-germany.blogspot.com/2011/10/bosnian-muslim-terrorists-attack-us.html
Like 9/11, it’s all our fault; we probably saved the moron’s life during the Clinton administration which violated some obscure code of Islamic ethics we should’ve known about because Americans must understand everyone in the frickin’ world and take this into account while no one has to care about Americans because our country is an airport; our Constitution says so. No good deed goes unpunished.
At some point one has to wonder at the damage marrying first cousins has done to Islam because they definitely are are lacking in brains.
A “moderate” Islamist is like having a liberal Nazi. Tunisia will go the way of Iran in a few years and there’s not a darn thing we can do about it NOW, thanks to this administration.
I wish Barry Rubin or anyone else with adequate knowledge will finally explain to us the difference between moderate Islamists and extremist Islamists, preferably with live examples cause, frankly, I’ve lost my way in this jungle of moderates of all kinds and can’t read the signs anymore, they make no sense. Of course, I understand that some of the Islamists are even more extreme and violent than other Islamists, but does that mean the other Islamists should be referred to as moderates? The Taliban treats women far worse than the Iranian regime and even Saudi Arabia – does that make the Iranian and Saudi Islamists moderate Islamists? Souldn’t they all be referred to simply as Islamists? Or as Islamists and even-worse-Islamists?
Using the term “moderate” within the narrow context of Islamism might somewhat make sense because it’s a relative term, but it’s confusing because when people hear the term ‘moderate’ they don’t think only of the narrow context of Islamism, but intuitively get the impression that moderate Islamists are moderate by their own standards rather than by Islamist standards. It’s twisted really. And I think it’s confusing by design. It’s meant to assuage concerns and make people go back to sleep.
The vast majority of Muslims are moderates: extremist Islam is bent on subverting the West and even in favor of murder. Most Muslims want to get married and live their life and are not crusaders. Many may not like the West but I don’t particularly like Islam and I’m not killing Muslims or subverting their culture. Tons of Christians are indifferent Christians and the same is true of Muslims.
Add to this the obvious but little mentioned fact that Muslims want to see their culture predominate, especially in their backyard, the same way we wish to impose our values on Iraq and around the world. This idea that if you’re not a Jeffersonian you’re an idiot is cute but stupid and terribly provincial.
Our democracy has given us many wonderful things but it has also given us 12 yr. old kids mimicking sex at halftime of school sporting events with teenagers doing the same thing at proms. If you don’t think that Muslims are rabidly fearful of this and gay pride parades marching through their streets you’re crazy.
On the other hand Islam is addicted to what we produce, putting them in the situation so many cultures both within and outside the US are in: they can’t live with us and they can’t live without us. This is why the people who invent things are at once respected for being smart but immoral by the Third World; it’s how they explain away their own inferiority.
You’d be surprised how nuts Muslims are for American wrestling shows and Michael Jackson’s music. And no it’s not because he liked to get kids drunk on wine and ‘play’ with them.
There is no such thing as ‘Islamic extremism’. It’s a figment of the MSM’s imagination. Likewise, there is no such thing as a ‘moderate’ muslim. Those described as ‘extremists’ are simply muslims practicing Islam as it was intended in the 7th century. As far as Islam is concerned, they are doing NOTHING extreme. WE might think they are doing ‘extreme’ things, but for Islam, it’s just going about normal, everyday business. Commiting suicide by blowing yourself up to kill non-muslims is a totally normal and entirely acceptable thing to do. Those described as ‘moderates’ are those who don’t have the stomach for practicing Islam as it was intended – the violent jihad. And these people, who don’t have the stomach for it, are described in the Sunna of Mohammed. They support the jihad in other ways – giving zakat, or just ignoring what jihadists do, not criticising them, building mosques and ‘cultural’ centres,immigrating to non-muslim countries – the possibilities are legion.
“the movement can operate by stealth, one step at a time, winning elections, taking over institutions, and only emerging fully at the end of that process.”
This hits the nail on the head. Islam itself is a PROCESS. Islam started out as a benign, tolerant religion, and ended up as a totalitarian, military/political ideology with religious elements (the genius bit). It underwent a PROCESS through which it changed. Islamization is a PROCESS. It doesn’t just ‘happen’. Countries and peoples throughout history have been Islamized over time. Drip, drip, drip…that’s exactly what they’re setting out to do in Tunisia and all these other so-called ‘Arab Spring’ countries. These people are smart. They know terrorism, although it will always be with us, is a waste of time for the big picture – it’s just a tactical asset which can be wheeled out as required. The stealthy approach is the smart, rational way to do it. And it’s all in the Koran, and the Sunna of Mohammed – their ENTIRE strategy, and EVERY single tactic, has already been laid out in writing – and you can buy it on Amazon…
Not just Tunisia…The whole arab world.
Given what Barry knows about the Western approach to Middle Eastern unrest (i.e. install Islamist governments at the nearest opportunity), I’m surprised he continues to support the overthrow of Assad’s regime. Assad the Alawite stirs up trouble from time to time because he needs to boost his pan-Arab street cred and remind the Sunnis in Syria that he is simpatico with respect to their Jew-hatred. An Islamist government in Syria will stir up trouble with Israel because it believes Allah wills it. I guess if a newly-installed (with NATO assistance) Islamist Syrian government starts raining Scuds on Israel, Barry can say that he supported Assad’s overthrow, just not a Western intervention. The problem with Barry’s policy prescription is that Western policy-makers are programmed to do one thing – install Islamist governments.
Sorry, but there will be people who can read German or French:
Ein Statement von Latifa, einer tunesischen Bloggerin für den Figaro, die die Progressive Demokratische Partei Tunesiens unterstützt. Zwischen Wut und Unruhe spricht sie hier über die islamistische Welle in Tunesien:
Ich bin bereit, erneut auf die Straße zu gehen, falls nötig:
Tunesien braucht keine islamistische Partei: Wir wollen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt.
Ich bin wütend und habe keine Lust, wie so viele zu sagen, diese Wahlen wären ein Erfolg gewesen. In meinem Wahlbüro habe ich nur Analphabeten gesehen, denen man gezeigt hat, welches Kästchen sie ankreuzen sollen. Wo waren unsere Eliten? Unsere Intellektuellen? Unsere Geschäftsleute? Ihre starke Präsenz auf Facebook hat sich bedauerlicherweise nicht in die Wahlbüros übertragen. Ebenso bin ich zornig über das Schweigen der Wahlbeobachter, die erlaubt haben, dass sich Wahlbetrug und Missbrauch anhäufen.
Ich bete mein Land an. Wir haben lange Zeit geduldig auf diesen Tag gewartet. Ich habe die Ungerechtigkeiten des vorigen Regimes kosten dürfen, und wenn ich heute den Machtzuwachs von Ennahda, der Partei von Rached Ghannouch, sehe, weiß ich nicht, was ich denken soll. Ich hoffe in der Tiefe, dass wir wahren Tunesier am Ende noch einmal aufwachen. Es gibt noch ein paar, wir waren auf der Straße im Kugelhagel der Polizei von Ben Ali. Wir haben bis zum Schluss durchgehalten, und wo waren die Islamisten?
Vielleicht bin ich zu misstrauisch mit Ennahda, aber vergessen wir besser nicht, dass sie zugegeben haben, in den Neunzigern Gewaltakte begangen zu haben. Haben sie sich wirklich bis heute geändert? Sie haben uns lange Zeit an ihre Doppelzüngigkeit gewöhnt. Man weiß nicht, ob man in demokratischer Hinsicht Vertrauen in sie haben kann. Tunesien hat weder ein Identitäts- noch ein Religionsproblem. Wir brauchen keine islamistische Partei. Wir wollen politischen, sozialen und ökonomischen Fortschritt.
Ennahda benutzt die Religion als Waffe, um die tunesische Frau zu schwächen
Die Männer haben nichts zu verlieren, wenn sie Ennahda wählen. Vor allem die, denen man vier Frauen versprochen hat! Ich kenne einige in meinem Umfeld, die aus eben diesem Grund Ennahda gewählt haben… Ohne gleich die organisierten Femninistinnen ins Spiel zu bringen, muss man auch die Frauen hören, vor allem die Modernen, die mehr in Gefahr sind. Es ist wichtig, dass die ausländischen Medien damit aufhören, Ghannouch und seine Partei zu unterstützen. Wir sind nicht alle verschleiert oder unterdrückt. Wir lieben die Freiheit und sind nicht bereit, uns den “Bärtigen” auszuliefern.
Deshalb habe ich die PDP (parti démocrate progressiste) gewählt. Schon zu Zeiten von Ben Ali hat sie eine wirkliche Opposition dargestelt, zusammen mit den politischen Ideologen, nicht den religiösen. Außerdem wird die PDP von einer sehr starken Frau, Maya Jribi, geführt die ich als das Ideal der tunesischen Frau heute ansehe: frei und intellektuell, kämpft sie seit ihrer Jugend, obwohl sie sich dem alten Regime beugen musste. Sie kämpft für die Veränderung des Bildes der tunesischen Frau und anderer Frauen, z.B. in der Golfregion. Auf der Gegenseite benutzt Ghannouch die Religion als Waffe, um die laizistische und fortschrittliche Zivilisation zu zerstören, aber auch und vor allem, um “die tunesische Frau” zu schwächen, die ihm Angst macht. Wir wollen diese Obskuranten daran hindern, uns unsere Errungenschaften wegzunehmen.
Aber Tatsache ist, dass Ennahda sich heute an der Spitze der Wahlresultate befindet. Es bleibt zu hoffen, dass die Religion nicht zu sehr bestimmt. Ich zähle sehr auf die zahlreichen Oppositionsparteien……..
http://plus.figaro.fr/note/je-suis-prete-a-retourner-dans-la-rue-sil-le-faut-20111026-582348
Dany Freewest, I couldn’t agree more.
Underpinning this march of War Islam is what we have in the White House. Even now we are trying to open talks with Iran, most recently involved in a murder plot on our soil. What better time to advance a murderous faith then when you have a sympathetic president.
The symbol of the horns of the bull, and the star represent the power of Lucifer the light bearer, or the false god of this world system. A world system based on worshiping power, and money with no morality.
It is a symbol that calls for the return of the son of the Sun god. The rebirth of Nimrod who was Lucifer’s man after the flood of Noah. Nimrod’s son Tammuz was, and is the false moon god known as Allah, or in English the god. His symbol is on the top of all Mosques.
The world loves it’s own, and the true pagn religious system of theis world brings death on many fronts. The Islamic spring does not exist. The Islamic murder of thousands to usher in an Islamic region of power like the E.U. has began.
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