By Barry Rubin
1. Syria: A Tragedy
By far the best source of news on the Syrian revolution is Syria Revolution Digest by the heroically tireless Ammar Abdulhamid. Every day he puts in a little summary of the situation. Here is what he wrote for October 11:
“As [the dictatorship of the] Assads take back Syria, one neighborhood and one town at a time, opposition groups continue to wrangle over seats in a stillborn [leadership] council, as the world considers options that have no bearing on reality.”
Several thousand people have been murdered yet despite all the fine words, there has been little serious international action as the violence has continued for months.
“As [the] Assads take back Syria, one neighborhood and one town at a time, opposition groups continue to wrangle over seats in a stillborn council, as the world considers options that have no bearing on reality.”
And on October 13 he wrote that there are two opposition movements now, one dedicated to non-violence and the other to armed struggle:
“Despite the fact that pro-Assad troops are busy taking back Syria one rebellious community at a time, battling defectors and suppressing protests through targeted and mass detentions and killings, advocates of nonviolence seem to labor under the belief that an Assad victory…will pave the way for a return to nonviolent struggle. What they fail to see is that a defeat will more likely crush the spirit of the re-conquered communities, and could empower the Assads to snuff out the spirit of rebellion.”
“So many observers and opposition figures have been saying that Syria cannot go back to the way things were, but they are wrong. As things stand at this stage, this is the most likely outcome.”
2. Obama Administration Seeks Political Arrangement with Anti-American Terrorists
Meanwhile, the indispensible AfPak Channel newsletter reports that the Obama Administration is now ready to negotiate with Taliban and even al-Qaida linked terrorist groups (the Haqqani network) to participate in governing the country. According to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, anyone who wants to participate in talks can do so. The Afghan government is not thrilled with this policy, being carried out against its will since these are the people trying to kill it. The Haqqani network murdered the president’s brother last month. And NATO officials continue to produce misleadingly optimistic reports about how the war is going, including claims that the Taliban is on the run. This is patently untrue.
3. The Iran-Mexico Affair
Vice-President Joe Biden threatens that Iran would be held accountable and the U.S. government is seeking to mobilize “world opinion” (oh, brother! headline showing how effective that is: “Despite sanctions, German exports to Tehran have increased“) for its response. The administration should be given time to act but will it do something serious or not? If not, it should be held accountable. And if it has made a potentially huge international crisis out of a misreading of evidence it should also be held accountable.
But we live in bizarre times. I never expected to see a headline like–I made this up but it reflects the situation–”President and Vice-President Endorse Demonstrations Demanding Destruction of Capitalism.”
4. Remember the Iranian Opposition?
Here’s an excellent discussion on the Iranian opposition by Genevieve Abdo. She points out the startling fact that the two main leaders of the Green Movement–Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi–have been under arrest held in small apartments since February, that’s eight months ago! The world has said nothing; the Western media little. This is shocking and disgusting. In general, only anti-American, anti-Western and anti-Israel forces get honored by the West, taught about in Western universities, have demonstrations in their support by students, and are lionized by Western intellectuals.
On Syria
Let it be a tragedy for now, since we cannot admit the obvious. And cannot see past our noses.
Under Clinton (the intellectual Daddy of the present administration)the Balkan borders were redrawn to facilitate Islam along with the misconception that a “moderate Islamic” Western-leaning Turkish template would be the model for the broader Near East. This suited many in pre-Erdogan times. Most (self-respecting) proponents of this strategy are now eating their words. The rest are desperately trying to square the circle. They’ve invested (in all meanings of the word) so much in the “moderate” Turkish model for the region that they can’t backpedal now. Result? A region on the brink of disaster.
Intervene when the conditions are ripe and partition Syria! You would think that your dealing with the BENELUX countries here! Do what was done in the breakup of Yugoslavia, except this time apply it to a predominately Muslim state. The Sunnis, Alewis, Kurds, Christians and Druze are analogous to the successor states of former Yugoslavia.. Secure the coast for the Christians and the Golan for the Druze. Stability will ensue. Then watch Hezbollah wither on the vine in Lebanon.
Iran is a real problem.
However nasty leaders like Assad is in reality the best of the bad plate that the Syrian people have on offer. The alternate is a civil war or the Islamists.
Assad has known for a long time that if he attacks Israel his dynasty will fall. A new nasty who takes over won’t know this.
The question is no longer if Obama will screw it up, the question is how much!
Enjoyed reading this, very good stuff, thankyou . “While thou livest keep a good tongue in thy head.” by William Shakespeare.
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