By Barry Rubin
Remember that Hillary Clinton ad about it being the early morning hours and the phone’s ringing in the White House? Well it’s arrived in real life, and the phone is — or isn’t — going to be answered by Barack Obama. And the question is: What are you going to do about the dramatic announcement of an Iranian plot to attack targets in Washington, D.C.?
True, it’s a bizarre story about Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Mexican drug lords. But, after all, the United States was impelled a step toward entering World War One by the Zimmerman Note in which German agents sought to entice Mexico to go to war against the United States.
Vice President Joe Biden has said that “nothing has been taken off the table” when it comes to the U.S. response. The Saudis, who are famous for keeping a low profile and trying to avoid problems — often through money — are openly livid. They’re basically saying something along the lines of, “We told you so.” They tried and gave up because they didn’t get U.S. or Western help. Will anything change now?
Is This Story True?
There are some points that would make one question this whole garish tale. Most important:
–This does not match past Iranian practice. Many “experts” think this is the clincher, but precedent is not always a reliable guide. Things change. Be careful on this point. But clearly this does not correspond with past Iranian operations that went through either direct agents or trusted Muslim Islamist clients.
–Why should some Iranian-American businessman in Texas be a key Iranian agent? It’s called secret agent work for a reason. A sleeper cell should not be obvious. And he did have a relative in the Revolutionary Guards hierarchy, if the indictment is to be believed, who helped him.
–Why didn’t Iran use its own assets? Again, I think this is a strongest argument against the story. The whole thing is amateurish but more importantly it was Iran’s most sensitive operation ever and the absurdly high danger of exposure was obvious. Even if Iran was going to do this kind of operation, it would have developed these contacts with the Mexicans and not immediately entrusted some drug gang official that one of their guys barely knew.
–What was the Iranian goal? Certainly, Iran has been threatening the United States with dire consequences for a while. But why the sudden decision to escalate? Revenge for sanctions? And what was their plan for concealing Iranian involvement if the attack did happen? One can explain such a change, but one cannot explain it very well. This raises questions, but again is not a definitive answer.
The Administration is telling its favored reporters that the Iranians were desperate (sanctions are biting; Tehran is becoming more aggressive in Syria to fight the revolution there and in Afghanistan to support the Taliban. I don’t buy this analogy. Iran’s operations are designed to spread or protect existing influence among Muslims and not to launch a direct bin Ladin style Jihad on American soil. Again, if the evidence exists I’ll accept it but on an analytical basis it doesn’t compute.
Did the Administration make the whole thing up to protect itself politically? No, it wouldn’t dare since such behavior would eventually be easily exposed and backfire big-time. And besides, if it were going to do such a thing it would invent a free-lance terror plot, not drag the United States into a potential confrontation with Iran, a country that it’s been trying to avoid confrontation with.
(If I had to make a guess–and it is too early to do so–I’d speculate that the Iranian agent(s) involved didn’t have full authorization to organize such attacks but that’s an educated guess. The problem with that theory is that Iranian regime organizations tend to be heavily top-down, Iran is a dictatorship, and the counter-intelligence groups keep an eye on everyone. But even if my theory were to be correct, since the Iranians would never admit it was a rogue operation that wouldn’t save the regime from potential consequences, if any. )
All that’s important is this: If the U.S. government has persuasive evidence that it can present, then it happened. Since the main defendent has turned state’s evidence then he will supply details and we would see that the story is true and the trail does lead back to Iran’s government. BUT if the Obama Administration can make the charges stick that is only the beginning of its problems!
Might This Blow Up in the Obama’s Administration’s Face?
Absolutely yes. If they were fooled by a fabricator, if revealing the case too soon (to stave off criticism of Attorney General Holder over the gun-smuggling case) damaged the chance of success in uncovering the terrorist network, or if the government’s response is not equal to the crisis they’ve developed, then the Obama administration will look worse.
This whole affair is extremely dangerous for the White House. Any idea that this is an easy win for the administration — see how good we are at protecting America — is dead wrong.
Why use a Mexican drug cartel killer? The Iranian’s have long used the tactic of “let’s you and him fight”. Their goal is to stir up trouble for the US. They may have thought the FBI would tie the bombing back to the drug cartels, prompting a US military operation against Mexico. It doesn’t have to make reasonable strategic sense. The extremist cult in Tehran want to create more chaos to prepare the way for the Mahdi.
What possible reason would Mexican drug cartels have to whack the Saudi ambassador? How could that be made to look plausible?
to richard mcenroe
The Iranian regime is insulted that the Saudis are not sufficiently cow-towing to their “superiority” etc. The Saudis are resisting Iranian rise to pre-eminent power over the region. Iran wants to do what it can to strike fear in the Saudi’s.
To the dismay of the Saudis, the U.S. is doing nothing to stop the progression of Iranian power. Clearly, Iran sees this dismay building, and seeks to widen this gap between the U.S. and the Saudis.
In the long run, though, if Iran does prevail and show they are the “strongest” in their regional goals, especially if (when) they are nuclear armed, I believe that the Saudis, rather than “fight” or “resist,” will ultimately bow to the Iranians and ally with them. That’s their way.
don’t think so.
Iranians (Persians) have always hated Arabs and consider them inferior and they are ethnically different than Arabs (Iranians are Aryan, ethnically).
Also, the Sunni Arabs (Saudis, etc) will never ever submit to Shias (Iranians). Sunnis – the majority of Arabs, consider shia heretics and on the same level as jews.
The Saudis realize that if they ” fall ” under Iranian domination, they are dead, they will be killed off.
The Saudis, if forced to, will come to terms with the Israelis first (Arabs know that Israel presents no existential threat to them and have always known this; but for Arab despots to stay in power, you must deflect or create rage in another direction, and for this, Isreal was / is the favorite whipping boy); the Persians are a very real existential threat to Arabs.
Also, you are leaving out Turkey in all of this. Turkey has the most powerful and biggest military in the region; and they are also Sunni moslems. While the Turks have no love lost for Arabs (based on their 500 domination of arabs during the Ottoman empire) they have no intention of allowing shia-Iranians to dominate the ME.
Presently, Turkey has sort of befriended Iran but only because it is wise to keep potential enemies closer to the vest than your friends. But make no mistake, Turkey has aims in the ME (think oil), they see the ME falling apart, they see Iran developing nukes, they see Arabs fearful of Iran, and of course, all of this spells OPPORTUNITY for Turkey. Erdogan and his pals would love to see Part II of the Ottoman Empire begin under his watch.
Right now Iran and Turkey are like two boxers circling in the ring; but they WILL come to blows. It is inevitable as long as the wackos in Iran stay in power.
Obama, of course, intends to do nothing at all. Everybody knows this, which is why Iran felt free to do what they just did. And Iran realizes that as long as Obama is president, they can pretty much do whatever they please and not worry about much. Of course, they are correct about this. They realize – like any sentient being living in our solar system – that Obama is blatantly anti-American and anti-Israeli and his ideology precludes him from doing anything at all.
Good points. Especially about Turkey, but who can tell how that would wind up. In general, your thinking reflects the thought of many … follows a certain degree of logic … seeks a positive outcome. But ….
“Also, the Sunni Arabs (Saudis, etc) will never ever submit to Shias (Iranians).”
“Never” is an unconditional concept. That’s “never” before been the case with Arabs. If they feel Iran is stronger and there’s no back-up from i.e., the U.S. or Russia … they will “appease.” They always go with the strong horse. It’s their way, and … it’s scriptural for them … taqquiya, etc.
“Sunnis – the majority of Arabs, consider Shia heretics and on the same level as jews.”
Heretics, yes. Hate them? Yes. But the same level as Jews? That’s preposterous. This is a gross exaggeration and doesn’t take the reality of the depth of their Jew-hatred into consideration.
“The Saudis realize that if they “fall” under Iranian domination, they are dead, they will be killed off.”
The Saudi leaders will be in danger either way — surely more so if Iran gets nukes and the “threat” power and prestige that comes with them. That’s why the Saudis will kiss Iranian bottoms, bargain with them, and give them lots of respect and other advantages. Saudis don’t have it in them to fight.
“The Saudis, if forced to, will come to terms with the Israelis first (Arabs know that Israel presents no existential threat to them and have always known this;”
You’re dreaming. Of course, Irael has never presented any threat to them. But “come to terms with Israel?” … they can’t — not publicly. (Maybe they will try some covert dealings — but that won’t get them too far — the Israeli’s too are stopped by Obama from dealing with Iran.) The Saudi Arabian people (and Sunnis all over their world — don’t forget the U.N. & OIC) would rise up against them. It would make “Arab Spring” look like a teenage snit fit.
” … the Persians are a very real existential threat to Arabs.”
Yes, you’re being very rational here. But rationality has nothing to do with it. It never has. And when Iran gets the nukes, they will be a threat if the Saudis appease them and if they don’t — much more of a threat if they don’t bargain and kowtow, and as I said above, they won’t actually fight Iran. Hot conflict disturbing the Princes’ cushy comforts is not in their vocabulary.
“Iran realizes that as long as Obama is president, they can pretty much do whatever they please and not worry about much.”
Very true. And the Saudis know this too well. They will have no help from Obama … nor anyone … so …. if Iran gets really strong … what can they do but appease and for all intents and purposes … side with them.
to mcenroe
Oh, in haste I missed the point of your question … the reason for Mexican cartels, etc.
Friendship for Iran. A favor. Paid Hit Men. Take your pick. Or all 3.
What reason does Chavez have for allying with Iran? It’s about the same.
Don’t forget the Number one Most Likely Reason;
Money.
Druglords may dream of ruling Mexico- but they aren’t about to pass up a payday. And you can bet they are smart enough to figure out in advance that for a job at this level, they can basically ask for, and get, a blank check marked “For Services Rendered”.
As for the mullahs owing them a favor, think Really Big Favor. For instance, a major new pipeline for drugs coming out of Asia via the Hindu Kush. Which would allow them to play that source off against their usual suppliers in China, Vietnam, etc.
And then of course there’s the potential for a heroin pipeline coming straight out of Erdogan’s “New Turkey”. Which could look a lot like the pre-1962 UN Memorandum version. (The first cut, pure-quill white type, none of that “black tar” stuff.)
Forget ideology here. The potential for sheer, monetary profit is almost too good for any self-interested cartel bigshot to pass up.
As for blowback, do you really think that the Mexican cartel leaders are afraid of Calderon’- or Obama? Somehow, I suspect they have already concluded that the worst result will be another rambling, semi-incoherent (OK, completely incoherent) speech by Joe Biden.
They’ll just change the channel to a soccer match.
clear ether
eon
It’s also a statement that they don’t fear the US government. After all, no amount of money is worth being considered the same as Al Queda. They may want the money, but they don’t want to pick a fight with the US Army and Marine Corps. However, they don’t think Obama would sick the military on them, so they’re unafraid to participate in an act of war.
to eon
Good points. Interesting.
We only know the Saudi was the target because of the undercover, if the bombing had taken place he would be one victim of many the cartel hit a restaurant not an individual. Iran want the cartel to think it was a hit. It was deception the restaurant was the target. Cartels are tied to a bombing of a restaurant in the US. The Saudi was coincidence, collateral damage.
Why would a Mexican drug cartel what to whack a Saudi ambassador on US soil?
Aside from the money, possibly for payback.
“Zapata was not a diplomat but he was on some sort of diplomatic mission. According to both Mexican and American authorities, Zapata’s killers belonged to the Los Zetas drug cartel. Given accusations that the U.S. government has been supporting the Zetas’ deadly enemy – the Sinaloa cartel, recipients of Fast and Furious firearms – Zapata’s death could be directly related to America’s covert policy to choose sides in the “war on drugs.””
As long as the Iranians thought they were dealing with a rival of the Sinaloa cartel, they thought that there was a plausible pretext for the gang’s attack, that could stir the waters and make Obama’s life even more miserable.
Something does not add up. The IRGC would not reveal all the details of their plot to a Mexican drug dealer they just met.
I wrote about this here: http://www.dollarmayhem.com/?p=359
i don’t believe any of it…
i think they came up with all this to take the spotlight away from holder and the guns.
anyway…it wouldn’t matter…it would go no where..a promise of a slap on the wrist of iran..obama does not defend our country, he degrades us
Another unanswered peculiarity of Mexican drug involvement of this plot is the massiveness required of the US intelligence operation in order to pull the ruse off. The Iranian operative flew many times to Mexico. If true this would have required a substantial investment on the part of the USA in order to fool Iranian operatives into thinking it was genuine. Would we really wish to compromise such an operation simply to roll up a couple Iranian terrorists we were on the tail of, or would this arrest have been much more covert, leaving the drug counterintelligence operation intact?
At the very least, this would point toward highly political reasons behind Obama’s decision to make arrests now, followed by blowing the whole Mexican counterintelligence operation by going public. Knowing what we do about the rampant manipulation by Obama of events, whether the engineered activities of ACORN, the Occupy Wall Street astroturfing, to Fast and Furious to subvert the 2nd Amendment, I think it highly likely that this operation is not what it appears. Exactly who the architect is remains to be seen, but I doubt we know the half of it.
“What to do? What to do?” I know, let’s see how many stupid things we can say, how many true friends we can insult and how many lies we can tell. It was Bush’s fault, or was it Jimmy’s?
ta
It’s going to be a general war with Iran sooner or later: sooner and the Iranians won’t have nukes; later, they will.
The Iranians have been kidnapping and killing Americans for 30 years. The only time the US fought occurred when they mined the Gulf. Moral as long as they stick to murdering Americans in small numbers and keep away from the oil the US won’t hit back. Actually fighting back may upset the voters by interfering with their TV viewing. Actually drafting men or taxing for war would cause riots. Anyway how many votes do dead US servicemen and women cast.
President Bush was an anomaly an American who was not afraid of is own shadow; cowardice is the new American narrative. Welcome to the worse generation, all take and no give. Summation, there will only a continuing Iranian war against the US, no US war against Iran.
BTW,remember that Gadaffi had a hit team dispatched to kill President Reagan. Net result, he remained in power another 25 years.
Well one thing in favor of the Iranians using the Mexican Cartels to perform some act of terror is that the Cartels don’t appear to have any problems moving anything they want to across any border they want to move it across. This may have something to do with being able to corrupt US public employees. Wait … did I really say that?
One of my friends knew this alleged terrorist for several years. She claims he wasn’t very bright and she is shocked that he would be involved in something so nefarious. I am very skeptical about anything that involves Eric Holder and DOJ.
The Islamists commonly use semi-crazy, mentally slow people as their point men for these operations. They make mistakes and get caught easier, but they are also far more deniable and don’t retain information that leads back to them no matter how they are questioned.
As I was drifting off to sleep last night I was toying with creating the most plausible “conspiracy theory” I could with the information to hand. My best effort went like this:
- The threat actually originated in Saudi Arabia
- KSA turned on a sleeper agent in the Quds force they’d previously co-opted
- The end game was to create an credible international quid pro quo for attacking Iran
- Their interest in attacking Iran is twofold – one, they want to ensure that Iran doesn’t go nuclear and two, Iran is the great Shia devil to the Wahhabist Sunni KSA – it’s an old and bitter rivalry which dates back to the death of Muhammad
- The specific plan was intended to drag us into a conflict with Iran as KSA’s partner
I’m not saying I believe that’s what was afoot, nor am I touting this as a “theory of the crime”. It was my best effort at creating a conspiracy out of what I knew at the time – a mental exercise.
I thought that too–that it was the Saudis behind it. But the risks of being found out would be enormous, so large as to outweigh any possible gain–especially since (as we all know) all Obama is going to do is “sternly condemn.”
OhGod, I hope it wasn’t the Israelis! (they certainly have motive). But again: the risks would be enormous & the gains not all that mcuh.
If it was the Israelis, the attack would’ve been successful and Dinnerjacket would’ve had powder burns and singed eyebrows. I can see the DOJ cooking up something this inept long before the Israelis.
Very interesting thinking. The sad part of reality is the fact that none of us trust Holder and Obama anymore – the folks who are supposed to protect us – and we have trouble believing anything that comes from them.
It’s likely a dog and pony distraction. As this guy was busted over a month ago, it was kept around to use as a False Flag for the media types in case Holder got into trouble.
That or Holder has the worst sense of timing since Aethelred the Unready
I don’t think Response C is in the cards; this Administration can’t distinguish between a friend and an enemy, and likely many of our long-time loyal friends have written him off as an untrustworthy fool. Besides, Europe has its own financial crisis to deal with and they are likely still unhappy over his recent attempt to lecture them.
Response A is a possibility: remember Jimmy Carter, upon discovering there were Russian troops in Cuba, called it “unacceptable” and then did precisely nothing. Not that he should have done anything but the point is that a little bit of bluster goes a long way on the nightly news. The masses will soon forget about the Saudi ambassador few really give a damn about him, especially when they’re busy looking for part-time jobs to pay the grocer.
Response B is the most likely. It sounds like something Obama and/or Susan Rice would dream up, uncompromisingly delusional and self-righteous. Hillary will sit around staring at pictures of Kristen Gillibrand and muttering, “That coulda been me.”
I’m with Saul. I’m not saying there aren’t legit terrorist threats, but over and over again we keep getting fed stories of Keystone Cops terrorist wannabes getting rope-a-doped into sharing their heinous (and incredibly difficult to execute) plots with federal agents. And somehow these releases always seem to coincide with domestic issues.
Dog, meet Wag.
Can’t help but feel there’s some comparison here … of … for years, not doing anything about attacks and threats from Al Queda, until 9-11. If they are met with no reprisals, why wouldn’t they keep trying? If the 0 does nothing, will the next attempt succeed?
Iran and Mexican drug cartels? Well, there’s that … “the enemy of my enemy, etc.” thing. And then, there’s little doubt that Iran, Al Queda, etc., are colluding with (paying?) the cartels to smuggle their operatives across the border — setting up “cells.” So they’re friends, so to speak.
Motive? Why does Iran need a motive that we could possibly understand as logical — even from their point of view? They love to harm … and, if they can, frighten us.
For one, if they had succeeded, they would have gained “respect” in their sphere of terror lovers — and it would have not only harmed us, created a sense of chaos here, but diminished respect (fear) of the U.S. by the Islamist world, strengthening their cause in general (the strong horse, and all that).
Why is this our problem exactly? I agree it’s a big deal for the Saudis, but I suspect they have enough of our money to hire whatever help they need to in order to deal with the problem.
One consequence of our national finances being so out of whack is that we can no longer afford to get involved in other peoples’ fights.
#12 Amen. First Barry Rubin and everyone else in our government needs to understand the Saudis are not our friends. Not now, not ever. Friends would never work with a cartel to let gas get to $4/gal. Friends would never invest our oil money in spreading hard core Islam, like the Wahabbi sect. Friends let women drive. Friends would be actual friends like the Brits. We can disagree, but friends always protect friend’s interests. Our whole mid-East policy is a joke and has been for decades.
When they murdered Sadat for making peace with Israel we did not learn. When Clinton in his last year had the Israelis go 95% of the way to peace and Arafat walked away (because he knew he was a dead man if he actually made peace), we didn’t learn. They are laughing at us over there and we deserve it. We are sitting on huge reserves of our own but we can’t drill for it, so we fund our own enemies. Assinine! Afghanistan? Salt the poppy fields and leave. Iraq? we’ve done our part – give them the bill and leave, except for the oil fields and the port of Basra. Iran? Bomb them back to the stone age. Ask Pakistan if they want to behave or be next. Same for the Saudis. Enough tip toeing around like China and Russia want to be friends too.
Me likes this post!
Did it ever occur to either of you that if this attack had been carried out:
1) we would have looked weak and ineffectual, moreso than we are appearing now; that’s probably not a good thing
2)it might have helped consolidate support for Iran and her proxies in the Muslim world; again, not a good thing I should think
3) at that point the options when addressing this would have become very limited, and having a lot of options to respond to something is always a good thing, or so my granny used to say
4) and this is rather important: it probably would have killed a fair number of American citizens just out living their lives — kinda like another attack
which leads us back to the notion of limited options
Just because the intended target was a Saudi, doesn’t mean America wouldn’t have had some skin in the game. It was going to take place on American soil you know.
Ah, for an Administrarion with the balls to actually do stuff like that. . . . the current one NEVER will, and I don’t see any prospects coming up that will, either.
What I hope is if the thugs manage to slip another one in on us we’ll do what we should have done after 9-11. Send the Air Force. And tell our “friends” who might be tempted to help re-build the thugs infrastructure that when they are done the Air Force will be back.
I am leaning toward your approach. In my darker moods, I think the next President should make clear that American policy should benefit the American people, and we will consider them first, our allies second, neutral parties third, and enemies will be dealt with in whatever manner removes the threat with the least expenditure of (American) blood and treasure. Those who do not like it will be considered enemies.
Looks to me like it’s an invention made up to distract from Fast & Furious. Iran deserves all the trouble they get, but they are a most convenient straw man.
This is the Iranians retaliating for the CIA drone strike that killed the 12th Imam.
You better believe the Iranians are steamed about that. They’ve been waiting for him for centuries and when he finally shows up, a missile fired from a Predator UAV blows him to pieces.
My thought is that this has been sat upon until needed, and Holder and CO. needed this at this exact hour, In fact it is so pathetically obvious ‘In my op.’ that it is embarrasing..We are more intelligent than Obama, Holder, Clinton, Rice, and their cadre of tzars would give us credit for…we had no access to instant Inet media under Bro. Jimmy, and it was very limited under Mr. and Mizz. Bubba Clinton…It looks like the next leader of the free world will have to be Israel, Or maybe a new administration in Washington…
Compare this supposed “op” to this one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karbala_provincial_headquarters_raid
Quds forces are pretty good and operationally adept. They train and plan to win. They do use intermediaries but these are usually Hezbollah veterans.
If this was a real plan along the lines alleged, I would expect to see a Hezbollah veteran with Mexican born Muslims. Not some potbellied used car salesman.
“Did we sell the weapons that the drug cartel would use?”
It appears that the informant was in the Zeta drug gang. As I understand it, the Sinola gang got the Fast and Furious guns. So, if the operation had happen, at least it was a different Mexican drug gang, from the one that the ATF sold guns to.
As a distraction from Fast and Furious, it is a major fail.
First thing is to suspend Holder and remove him from the case because, Iranian plot, no Iran plot, or a ruse, Holder’s all tangled up with the Mexican drug folks any which way and sideways, no matter what. That much we know for sure now already in Fast ‘n Furious, not to mention other scandals, so better send him packing right now.
Next, with Holder out of the way, is to poke around good among all the usual Mexican and Iranian suspects, but with an eye out on Obama, too, because if he’s in any way linked to the Fast ‘n Furious folks across the border, well, figure it out, he’s either a dupe or accomplice in that, and could also be either a dupe or accomplice in a ruse, if not a plot, too.
1) I question the timing. Holder is close to being in deep doodoo over FnF. Why not change the subject and show him busting some Iranian meanies?
2) If this was an actual plot in the making, I expect Obama to do not much of anything. Sternly worded statements, angry letter to ambassador, much chest-puffing at lectern. Beyond that, re-election remains Job One.
He’ll get the expected media cooperation.
In your #2 list, you forgot “apologize”. That would be Obama’s prefered course of action, but this being election season …
Does Iran have more than one government?
We know that Iran has at least two power centers. One is the Presidency occupied by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who has as his nominal superior and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, an Islamic cleric who approves all of the people on the ballot and all of the government’s actions.
Whenever there is some nefarious plot to kill American troops or to assassinate ambassadors in Washington, another entity is named as if it were an independent entity: the Quds Force. For reasons that I can’t figure out, according to the MSM and the politicians interviewed, if the Quds Force kills Americans or assassinates diplomats it’s like it’s a rogue force, not an arm of the Iranian government. An analogy would be if the attack on Pearl Harbor was reported as an act committed by the Japanese Navy rather than an act of war by Japan.
What?
Moneyrunner,
The Quds force is a part of the Iranian Republic Guard Corps, Their elite military force supposedly loyal to the Supreme Leader. Think of the Quds as sort of like Black Ops teams working for the CIA. The IRGC has been expanding their sphere of influence into more and more areas in Iran and could possibly set themselves up to take over the country if they felt it was in their best interest. That is if they are not already doing just that. Right now, the IRGC is not actually a part of the government but controls much of the Iranian infrastructure such as communications, construction, and most of the smuggling going on in the country.
Well, as you read from my comment in another thread on this subject, I think its plan B. And then fall short of even acting. Get Americans to see Sunnis are our friends compared to Iran and then not really do anything about Iran. Use chaos to realign OUR attitude and then continue towards a path to nowhere.
Yes, option A doesn’t look good naked. Option B is really A but with added dangers of legitimizing Sunni terrorists. Option C is obviously the right course with significant planning as Rand suggests for a military confrontation. Iran is really the most significant threat beyond Pakistan going bonkers. Unfortunately Russia, Turkey, Egypt, Cyprus, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Lebanon all represent obstacles and we don’t have a President with gravitas and passion that can say it like it is.
I am not certain how deep this plot is as unfortunately I think this is a wag the dog’s tail moment. If I were Iran, I would play Obama’s bluff and send an airline to Latikia over Iraqi airspace and increase deployment around the contested oil fields as a warning. Sadr can send a few missile towards Port Mubarak in Kuwait. Its not like KSA is actually going to fight.
Question. Is the X-Band in Turkey still not going to target Iran and relay information to Israel? Yes, Obama is on a slippery slop with too much time before the election to control the events from here on out.
Question 2. Are we finally going to build a hypersonic bomb that will slice Fordo? Would this administration use them if we had them?
MASS
X
VELOCITY
M
….”I am not certain how deep this plot is as unfortunately I think this is a wag the dog’s tail moment.”
You didn’t really need to say anything more. Those two lines above sum up the situation as we know it now. Anything else is pontificating.
Perhaps we should beam a broadcast of the sounds of drone warming up; or, crack/hack into Iranian TV frequencies with sharp video images of the United States Navy practicing “stuff” nearby, but still in International Waters.
Those who really know something about this strange affaire aren’t talking. We, the rest of us, wil simply have to wait and see.
Charlie, hear ya : http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/13/earlyshow/main20119740.shtml
And while the mess is sorted Iran calls the Occupy Wall Street movement their allies and that capitalism is about to fail. One must wonder what would have happened if Bush put forward this case. I know Democrats wouldn’t even vote for the Kyl Bill despite evidence that Iran was killing US soldiers. No media has compared how they handled the two claims.
how about Response D? the Obama admin and the Saudis give the green light (and the airspace) to Israel to go destroy Iran’s nukes. threat averted, and everybody can still blame Israel in public, as always!
Holder must resign. How do we believe any of this with Eric Holder as AG?
I’m beginning to suspect that have no idea what to believe about this. The open question on Obama is whether he is really as grossly incompetent as he appears or whether he is malevolent
Color me skeptical. IMO, it would be crazy (and counter-productive) for Iran to even think about trying to pull anything like this before they even had an operational and deliverable A-bomb. And why was Holder the one to announce this spy-novel “plot”? Tail-wags-dog to deflect attention from the vile treason of fast and furious comes to mind. Hopefully the Senate (excluding the senile old fools like McCain) will call Bullshizt. If I’m wrong, we can blow Iran off the the face of the globe in about 10 minutes whenever we feel like it in an case.
“The point is not to go to war with Iran but to oppose Iranian interests and allies everywhere, including the use of covert operations. Challenge Iranian agents of influence in Lebanon and Iraq. Containment is not just about nuclear weapons for Tehran, but about the spreading influence of that regime and, more broadly, the gains being made by revolutionary Islamists throughout the region.”
There are many, many, ways to hurt the Iranians covertly. Some of their oil pipelines could mysteriously blow up; their major oil terminal could “suddenly” suffer a major fire; many of their agents around the world could “wake up” dead; and we could certainly start arming the Kurds big time, people who really, really, hate the Iranians. So there are a lot of ways to ruin their day without having to go to war. And if they try this again, we can start bombing major targets inside of Iran. This confrontation is going to come whether we like it or not. The Iranians will probably respond by sending troops into Iraq and Afghanistan, a move we should have anticipated and prepared for. Instead, Obama wants to run out of both countries as quickly as possible. My guess is that Obama will do a lot of nothing, prefering not to rock the boat so that he can cut and run from both Afghanistan and Iraq. In short, this country will look weak and foolish. Iran got what it wanted without having to blow up anything.
inside the empty boxcar that is Obama’s mind:
*YAWN*
Terrorist threat? I’m much too busy campaigning for 2012. Hmmm, wonder if I can get one of those neat-o wastebasket “baskets” so I can practice my 3-pointers from my desk. Need to tell someone to get on that.
Oh..and gotta tell Joe to get the hicks and bible-clingers to shut up about terrorism. There’s no such thing anyway.
Wonder if they fixed that green on the 16th down at Andrews. Better have Marvin give them a call. The things I have to put up with.
Why would Iran do this? Well, if a worldwide conflagration would reveal the 12th Imam, it makes pretty good sense.
Yeah, it’s a crazy millenarian notion. But who ever accused the Ayatollahs and their pet President of being anything other than crazy millenarians?
The Saudis will not align themselves now or ever with Iran. That’s just a non-starter.
I think using Mexican drug gangs is exactly the type of idiocy that the Iranians would deploy – they are not playing 3D chess here. They are busily building nukes to off the Israelites, and causing a huge issue between the US and KSA is a nice way to further complicate any diplomatic efforts here.
Bottom line: They know Obrezhnev is a serial bungler and incompetent, they want to sow confusion and mistrust between the ‘West’ and our allies, and what better way to do it than assassinate a hated Royal from Sunni KSA on US soil.
We need a Jack attack right now.
No one will lift a finger against iran. Even the Honorable Mr. Peace through Strength did nothing to the iranians after they butchered 241 United States Marines.
Every senator and representative should be brought on charges for not doing something about the fact that iran and pakistan have been providing leadership, training, logistics, and weaponry to our enemy. Why was GW so quick to have a cease fire with AL Sadr (an iranian stooge) when the Marines Corps was decimating their sorry ?
By the way, October 23, 1983 is the day that the Gipper, Wienberger, and and the rest of them bent the Corps over in beirut.
Hussein himself wished the US to be on the same playing field as the rest of the world, no better, no worse. Barry refused to support the democracy movement in Iran and this is what he gets – a love note from the world’s premier nut job who took our hostages. What to do, what to do.
I know, do nuttin’ honey, and let the sow of the western world break the jumping jacks record.
America’s departure from Iraq and Afghanistan is emboldening Iran, which seeks to dominate the region.
Obama might attack Iran, thinking that would assure his re-election in 2012. (Wag the Dog redux?)
I bet the suspect is a nut and is living out a rich fantasy life. I don’t know why, but he reminds me of Jim Jones and the electric acid cool aid test in Jones Town. Nothing in this scenario or plot is implausible, but it’s not really that plausible either when you consider some of the costs and benefits to various players, who wins and who loses. I really don’t see where the Iranian government comes out ahead on this. And the execution of the plot seems to violate Iran’s well developed expertise for staying covert in these types of operations.
To me this is a legit plot, but one originating from the Ayatollah’s office, and being run by him, with no real experienced guys like Quds Force doing the dirty work. Hence, a big mess that got them caught.
Reason? The Israeli assassinations (or more likely Saudi) of Iran’s top nuclear scientists. About five have been killed so far if memory serves. Saudis have been all over Iran, because Iran scares them and many Saudis are both Shia and speak Persian, can pass for Farsi-speaking natives.
Think of this as Iran’s “Iran-Contra” run directly by the Supreme Leader out of his back pocket and being a total disaster because professionals were not involved. Very likely the Ayatollah wants war because it will allow him to push out rivals as Khomeni did in 1979.
Their basic motivation is a love of Evil, Jn.3.19-20; coupled with a False Pride, Rom.10.3. Their international criminal conspiracy to rule the world via the forceful implementation of koranic-Sharia law is disguised a a religious venture- one which, in comparison, makes the crusades and the inquisition look like a sunday school picnic. And we are letting them get away with it, all over the world. Shame on us!
Barrry, using phrases like ” Why didn’t Iran use its own assets?” is wrong. We are dealing with The Hezbollah Party in Iran.
DRAFT HER! S.P.
Eon, Outstanding, you put the hammer to the nail. Their is nothing going on the border between the US and Mexico, but the corrupting influence of narco-terrorisism ( 100′s of billions) in both are economies and are politics. The media has been reporting for years the presence of Iranian terrorist and other Middle-Eastern terrorist on the border even up to including the discovery of their terrorist handbooks, on trails used for human trafficking in the Southwest deserts. This corruption of our border will continue to make itself manifest as the money like a cancer accelerates to more vital and vulnerable organs in both the US and Mexico. And like any victim of a progressive disease outcomes are predictably bad but often miracles are required. Especially when the patient (the US) is in a comatose state. Yes I believe in miracles. Draft Palin.
We do need a miracle, and Sarah Palin is just the ticket,
Mexican drug cartels are awash in cash and weapons, and most of the latter did NOT come from the US. Undoubtedly much flows through corrupt links to the Mexican military and police (though you don’t hear much about this politically-touchy source). But with sufficient funds, the cartels can shop on the global illegal arms market, and now we come down to, “Who is currently supplying arms to other nations to further political aims, and would these suppliers sell to Mexican Drug cartels?” It’s just a thought and unfortunately, recent ham-handed Administration efforts to impact *legal* gun sales in the US have obscured the real and growing problems next door that are leaking across the border.
Quite simply the Iranians know just how weak we are geopolitically, Libya aside. They know we do not have a leader with the cajones to enter a real fight, so the apparent recklessness of the op is just another finger in our eye, as if to say, ‘Yeah, so what? Whataya gonna do about it?’ Plus, the mullahs are nervous about Israel- zero hour is approaching. The Russians and/or Chinese might not intervene if Israel waylays them, but if we did? It’s about calculation, and with a Poser in Chief who would find ‘Chutes and Ladders’ difficult in a poker world, they are not worried.
It’s long past due for another apology from Obambi for something; This is a perfect excuse for one.
Holder is about to be thrown under Obambi’s bus, so the timing’s right on.
It doesn’t matter whether this is a true story or not. Never mattered to this “administration” or media before. They’ll run with it for all it’s worth. “Wag the Dog” some more.
What makes anyone think that this story isn’t a fabrication? Look at the bigger picture. Obama, Holder, Hillary, Napolitano, the DEA, the BATF are all in deep doo-doo over the gun-walking scandals. They all badly need a distraction. This fable should suffice. Now, lets remember Obama’s relative silence on the election protests in Teheran a couple of years ago. Eventually, this silence was being noticed. Then, Hey! Presto!, Michael Jackson dies and all the reptiles (aka MSM) obsess about it for over a month—they hardly mentioned anything else all that time. A wonderful distraction. By the time the reptiles decided that other things were happening in the world, silence had descended upon Teheran, the silence of the grave.
With this administration’s demonstrated lack of credibility and it’s political motivation on every issue, it seems like just another ruse with unintended consequences. It’s a shame when you earn mistrust and people cease to believe you on anything anymore.
Look at Fast & Furious, Sun Power, Solyndra and all the other designed destructive debacles and crises in this country in the past few years. As any grownup knows, at some point our leaders will not be able to avoid responsibility, deflect and blame others for their purposeful attempts to destroy and divide.
Above commenter said this administration cannot discern between friends and enemies of our country, what a true comment. It appears americans have been put on the bad list by this confused administration.
Au contraire, this administration most definitely CAN discern between this country’s friends and enemies. Obama punishes the former and rewards the latter as even the most cursory survey of his foreign policy will demonstrate.
Americans don’t have the guts for the inevitable war to come. Most of us, anyway.
Of those who voted for Obama, most of them supported our enemies then, and still do now, and figure America’s the world’s biggest problem, not our enemies, and that Israel is as bad as we are.
Obama is their kind of guy. He cups his balls at the Star-Spangled Banner. He’s “God Damn America!” all the way.
An Iranian plot or a sneaky ruse, what’s the difference? It’s all Obama.
You people are clowns if you don’t see that Obama and his goons are solely responsible for this. Keep allowing the curtain to be pulled over your eyes.
What will the administration do about it? Absolutely nothing. Why did you even bother to ask?
OK, here’s a new twist (one false-flag within another): The Iranians did do this, but they built enough ineptness into to be sure they’d be caught. They also built false evidence into it (which we’ll see soon) to make the US think it was all an Israeli black op. If we buy it, it’ll poison US-Israel relations far worse than the Pollard case ever did.
Yes, we do have an Iranian agent in custody, but that’s no biggie. Soon Iran will seize another US ‘hiker’ to swap for their guy….
A couple of years ago, the FBI nabbed a would-be terrorist in Texas through a sting operation; he planned to bomb a Dallas building, and he lived in a suburb south of town, where he had attended college. I don’t think it made the national news and got little local press coverage, as well. It’s entirely probable that this is a similar case; it’s made out to be a big event in order to turn the dismal approval ratings around and to deflect from the AG’s guilt in lying to the congressional investigation about Fast and Furious. Who knows what the truth really is?
I think you’ve touched on something that was occurring to me as I read through all of the above: the discussion has been going back and forth between “it was a complete set up” and “it was real but nothing’s going to come of it”. My take on this situation (so far) is that it was something of a set up for the purpose of distraction but that Holder et. al. looked around at the various sting operations that were in operation and decided to blow up in public an ongoing one that would best suit their purposes. This had to be something of a loner nut job who had just enough credibility that he couldn’t be totally ignored and so he was being jollied along. According to what I’ve seen in today’s paper, this character didn’t know that the restaurant in DC was totally ficticious.
In any case, Obummer has managed something truly unbelievable: he has managed to make Ahmadizynutjob look credible.
Last night I ran into an expression from the 19th century that was originally applied to calvary officers by the infantry. Updated for Obama it goes like this:
“Obama is so stupid that even other Liberals have noticed.”
“Do not underestimate the stupidity, incompetence, and ignorance of this administration regarding the Middle East.”
Very true words, unfortunately.
“Look, this is the Obama administration we are talking about.”
Well said and described! My 2 cents:
Obama is a latte’ Commie or “Marxisant” and therefore criminal, incompetent, and Narcissistic clear to the bone. Therefore, everything always works out perfectly in his/their Fantasyland “because they say so”: they are brilliant and we are stupid. Failing that, they think we’ll never even notice what they do, because they actually think they are invisible – I’ve seen it in other Commies – or at least that they can baffle us with their own, brilliant by definition, sophistry – producing the same effect. Necessary impenatrability.
So when they fail to follow through appropriately against Iran according to their own “facts” involving this “just like a Hollywood script” concoction, they will simply repeat their brilliant “perception is reality” gibberish. Hey, it works on them!
Meanwhile, given their usual m.o., they are obviously covering up something real, not merely imagined from within their own paranoid Fantasyland. I don’t know enough to guess what it is, though everyone above has helped my thinking.
But a zinger I’m going to use against the Obama Commies: “Why did the Iranians [allegedly] choose the Mexican Drug Cartels? Obviously because the Cartels are the best equipped operants available – by Holder’s dedicated supply line.”
This is BS. This nice fellow from Corpus ain’t no Intl Terrorist, he’s a used-car salesman and businessman of some sort. He probably should be talkin’ to a shrink. He’s gonna get lifetime meals and health benefits though.
And you have to remember in the Feds way of thinking, intent implies conspiracy and you have an arrest.
There is no way the Zetas would be stupid enough to associate with this. It is unwise to terrorize your best customer and risk retaliation. Remember, the guy who is setting this up is DEA informant, probably on the hook due to prior criminal activity.
Now I don’t dismiss that there may be a desire by the Iranians to do something like this in USA, but you would not risk your return address via this guy.
Alternatively, it could be a distraction that has succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. Or a test to see if our people are on the ball.
Most importantly, President Obama won’t do s*** about it except jump up and down about new sanctions.
The Iranian proxies have been targeting Americans at will since 1983.
And who gains most if the show has succeeded? The Saudies!