There are some substantial misunderstandings on the nature of the Gilad Shalit exchange deal. I should stress that the list of those Palestinian prisoners being given in exchange for him has not yet been released. But note the following:
–The number 1000 is impressive but most will be chosen by Israel, meaning they will be prisoners with the lightest sentences and crimes — in other words, people who would have been released anyway during the next year or two.
–Israel rejected Hamas’s demand to release those being called “arch-terrorists” who were major organizers of attacks or responsible for a larger loss of life.
–Of the most serious terrorist prisoners, only a bit over 96 will be released into the West Bank and 14 to east Jerusalem where they could cause direct trouble for Israel. The rest will be sent to the Gaza Strip or deported altogether. Those with lighter sentences who live in the West Bank would have been sent there anyway when their sentences were finished.
–Hamas did a politically clever thing by demanding that half of the named prisoners be non-Hamas people. The goal is to make Hamas more popular among Fatah supporters and on the West Bank.
The plan is as follows:
After a 72-hour wait following the issuing of a list of those to be released — to let families of victims file petitions against it — the minister of justice will signal readiness to carry out the deal. Gilad Shalit will arrive in Cairo. At that point, Israel will release about 450 terrorists under heavy sentence.
Of these 450 prisoners:
131 Gaza Strip residents will go there.
163 West Bank residents will be expelled from the West Bank to the Gaza Strip.
40 will be expelled overseas.
96 will return to their homes in the West Bank.
14 will return to their homes in east Jerusalem.
6 Israeli Arabs will be released to their homes.
I am sincerely sorry for all of us living in Israel that this was the best our government could devise. Let us pray that the results of this folly do not reverberate too intensely among the uninvolved in our population.
No one living in Israel is non-involved. I doubt there is a single family living here which has not lost a relative or a friend to a terrorist act.
It is not an easy solution. Obviously, the release of terrorists is a touchy subject, but deep in our hearts, we all know that if it were our children taken captive, we would want to open the jails and let them all out to secure the release of our loved one.
“we all know that if it were our children taken captive…” which is why such decisions shouldn’t rest with those whose children have been captured. Unfortunately, in Israel the Shalits have been granted inordinate influence on decision making related to their son. And the media, to their discredit, have actively promoted a policy of surrendering, paying whatever price is demanded.
Netanyahu is responsible for the welfare of the country and all its people – not that of a single “suffering” family. He may earn near-term kudos for agreeing to this disgraceful deal, but when the next soldier is captured, or a released prisoner takes another Israeli life, he will be held accountable. As much as Netanyahu admires Churchill, the latter would never – ever! – have considered such an exchange.
From Mr. Rubin’s article: The number 1000 is impressive but most will be chosen by Israel, meaning they will be prisoners with the lightest sentences an crimes, in other words, people who would have been released anyway during the next year or two.
This appears not to be true. The head of Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) said that of the first 450 prisoners to be released at least 279 had received life sentences. The JPost reports that this includes those who “were sentenced to life terms for personally murdering Israeli civilians.”
Barry Rubin is a bright and a capable analyst on Israel and the Middle East. He is much respected inside and outside Israel. Rubin tends toward a pragmatic point of view. On the Bush-Sharon “disengagement” plan — the forcible uprooting of Jews from Gush Katif, Gaza, August 2005, Rubin presented both sides of the debate. For idealists like myself, “disengagement” was a costly, not to mention immoral policy decision, as is this present one. Prime Minister Netanyahu strongly argues against releasing convicted-jailed terrorists in his book “Fighting Terrorism.” Not only does it reward and encourage further terrorist blackmail, it “emboldens terrorists by giving them the feeling that even if they are caught, their punishment will be brief. That innocent Jews have been murdered by released terrorists is well-known.
Steve – I’m not sure what you are trying to say here. If it’s that you think I don’t respect Mr. Rubin’s thoughts and opinions, then you have read something into my comments that wasn’t there. My point was very narrow.
According to the numbers you cite Rubin is correct. Out of a 1000 prisoners Israel will choose 550 (I wouldn’t call it most, but just over a half, but technically it is most). Naturally Israel will choose those with the lighter crimes and lighter sentences. The first 450 prisoners were chosen by Hamas (with Israel rejecting some, leading to a compromise), and Hamas will naturally prefer the biggies. Out of those 450, you say, at least 279 had received life sentences – that’s 279 out of 1000 (since those chosen by Israel are not ones with life sentences), or 28%. That’s sure a lot of murderers in absolute numbers, but a minority of the total number of prisoners to be released. Rubin didn’t say Israel will release only prisoners with light sentences, but that the 550 Israel is choosing will be the ones with the lightest sentnces and nearest release date.
Ah, you’re right. I originally misinterpreted the sentence.
Rubin is wrong. You are right. Many of these prisoners have blood on their hands and there are petitions against their release, which will most likely not amount to anything. Rubin is an excellent scholar. How did he screw this up?
One thousand for one is a lesson we must take to the battlefield. They have set the terms. They must now pay the price.
Yep – next time one of your people is kidnapped round up 1000 arabs and ransom them for the one.
I hope and pray that neither I nor any of my family are murdered by those Palestinian terrorists being released in this stupid, dangerous, and unbalanced exchange for Schalit.
Indeed, if any Israeli is murdered by even one of those released terrorists, the real murderer will be Gilad Schalit and his family, and anyone who supported this madness, including the present spineless Netanyahu government.
To me another interesting point is the INTEL that Israel will be in a position to collect…
The fact is that the Mossad is on top of it’s game.
Out of those 1027 palestinian terrorists let’s just say a significant minority have been turned by either money, fear or thirst for power.
Many “tips” Israel gets is from rival palestinians setting up other palestinians… Sort of like the “gang” unit on the old show Hill Street Blues”, The cops KNOW the different gangs, even have communication with them. This COULD be an injection of several hundred Israel spies. On the otherhand, the way the arab mind works MANY of the returning prisoners will be looked at with suspicion. Cant predict how many of the returning prisoners will be “killed” by Palestinian hands in the upcoming months.. Again, are they collaborators? Are they disrupting the power that have been in control during their absence?
And maybe Israel will quietly leak out that some specific palestinians are collaborators (when they are not) just to set them up..
we are dealing with a very paranoid group.. fatah and hamas!
looking at the history of interfighting between hamas and fatah (and all the other groups) I bet more than a few palestinians, used to 3 squares a day, cable, cell phones and college courses will find “freedom” bit challenging.
One can only hope that these 1027 palestinians (garbage) find life on the outside to be painful…
One last fun fact…
In an Israeli jail? they got the finest medical treatment on the planet. In Gaza? they will get the finest medical treats circa 1867…
Too funny..
Oh, I like your thinking, “occupation!” It’s got me wondering how many of these Arabs really look forward to “Home, Sweet Home!” Quite a few of the Guantanamo detainees haven’t been keen on going back to where they came from. They’d lose at least 25% of body weight from the “suppression” of internment.
But, there’ll no doubt be a share of the Palis returning to their former ways, and just maybe when caught or cornered there won’t be imprisonment next time.
Hep-C, HIV, Anthrax in the 1,000′s water/food. Just a thought.
“Here’s the brilliant Yossi Klein Halevi”
No matter how interesting and insightful these and other analyses may be, it would be even more brilliant to wait until Gilad is finally back in Israel before…well I’m not going to say.
@ Ken Besig: do you think there is a shortage of terrorist volunteers? No. Read # 5.
Kinda interesting that even Hamas admits that one Jew is worth more than 1000 Arabs.
Thanks for the info.
Let us hope it only works out this way.
I have some other gloomy suspicions, but will keep them to myself until he is free – which is supposed to be exactly when?
Probably Tuesday, though nothing is certain.
The timing is not coincidental. By signalling a releaseof prisoners, Netanyahu indicates a willingness to be flexible at a time when everyone is slandering hime for being an obstacle to peace. He deflects attetnion from the new housing constructs and undermines the snake abbas. Does hamas benfit? Yes, but consider that Fatah and Hamas are playing good cop bad cop with world opinion. If the false good cop is removed form the game board, the fig leaf used by soc alled progressives to bash istrael will wither away.
This 1:1000 ratio just indicates that for the Israeli/Jew, life is precious. For the Arab/Muzzie, life is cheap.
No better way than an illustrative example of mathematics. L’Chaim!!
Greetings:
I appreciate Mr. Rubin’s analysis, but, for me, this deal is an example of why terrorism should not be treated as a criminal matter. War is war; deader is better. You don’t ever want to fight someone twice. He (or she) may have learned more than you did. Trying to treat terrorists humanely is like locking your front door and leaving a window open.
The deal for Gilad Shalit is a high price to pay for his freedom. But, I’m happy to see that the Israeli government had the strength and persistence to conclude an agreement. Israel has let it be known that it will go to great lengths to safeguard its citizens and, particularly, its soldiers, who go to battle for the state. I pray that Shalit has retained his sanity despite his crushing captivity. And I hope that Israel will not have to regret releasing terrorists, whose actions have caused great suffering within Israel. Truly, there is reason to rejoice-Gilad Shalit soon will be a free man!
This is setting a very bad precedent with regards to “negotiating with terrorists”. Although this is on the surface seems like a noble act I can’t help but feel its an illogical move that will come back to bite Israel in the not to distant future. It is giving the abductors license to abduct.
These prisoners are going to be greeted as heroes in Gaza and the West Bank, many will rejoin the ranks of Hamas probably at higher ranks of operation too.
To many Israelis i am sure this will be a matter of how much Israel values its people, but to the Muslim Arabs of Gaza and the West Bank it will be seen as nothing more than weakness on Israels part.
Very troubling approach to say the least.
That’s hardly the first deal of its kind Israel has made. There have been several similar deals like that with different terrorist organizations over the last decades. In one of them Hizballah kidnapped a civilian and 3 soldiers and returned a civilain and 3 dead bodies. The soldiers were killed during the kidnapping, but Hizballah pretended they were alive and later acted ambivalently. Generally these orgs hold the hostages in isolation, prohibit visits from anyone and withhold information for long periods of time or all together, so you can’t know if the hostage is alive. Both Hamas and Hizballah are genocidal and both know the Israeli mentality well enough to push our buttons, but of the two Hizballah is the apex of cynicism.
What happens if Shalit is dead? It’s happened before.
I’ve looked, but no where have I seen, “dead is no deal.”
Am I missing something?
There’s proof that he’s alive, and if they’ll kill him after getting the first 450 terrorists they won’t get the rest 550. However, his health is probably in a bad condition.
Pnina,
Thanks very much for the reply.
I have high hopes, but no trust.
Here’s how you deal with the savages next time: Execute one terrorist prisoner per day until the hostage is released-unharmed.
Israel has made these deals before. It has never been a good idea.
Suppose a Hamas murder gang got into Israel, murdered many people, also took several others hostage – and demanded safe conduct back to Gaza or Lebanon for the lives of the hostages.
What would Israel do? By the precedent set here. Israel would agree – no matter how many people had been killed and how few hostages were at risk.
This deal releases killers responsible for at least 47 deaths, to free one soldier.
It increases the incentive for terrorists to seize Israeli hostages. It also gives Hamas a huge propaganda victory. The murderers will be welcomed as heroes. Some may kill again. Indeed I would guess that that is almost certain; thus Israel will save one man at the cost of dozens of others’ lives.
Not good.
I’m surprised Israel doesn’t have a batch of Palestinian prisoners, the worst of the bad, on indeterminate death penalties pending such hostage situations: Then practice a real no hostage policy and start executing one dead man walking every day until either the hostage is released or killed.
The Hamas and Fatah do not care about their people as does Israel..As an American Christian, my heart goes out to Mr. Netanyahu, and the powers that be, of Israel…The word in our Spec. Warfare Troops is that if you want to take a prisoner, just remember Holder and Co. will read him his ” rights” and provide him with the best of lawyers…the Idea is to take less prisoners, and deprive Obumo and Co. of great political fuel…..Israel, You are the only Humans over there, and I salute your Spec.Ops,..Kill these swine, instead of taking prisoners, I am sorry to have to be so crude…Oops, sorry, i thought he was reaching for a grenade…had to be careful…Jimi
Apparently, Israel doesn’t have the death penalty so your plan is going to need some modifications….
My prayers go out to Gilad Shalit, his family and the people of Israel, who must deal daily with this sort of savage nonsense each day. When all the whiny Liberals ask why Israelis tend to have a siege mentality, once need only see examples like Gilad’s kidnapping to understand why. I hope he is returned safe and sound, and I hope that if there are more of the usual kidnappings and hijackings perpetrated by the animal adherents of this “faith” that the IDF and Mossad are able to utilize this newly-agreed-upon ratio of war hostages for their own gain for a change. I’d start by snatching up Hamas and Fatah leaders’ families >)
The majority of the comments here find this exchange a terrible idea. If I were Shalit I would demand they forget about me, let the animals kill me but don’t give them such an outrageous deal. If I were Netanyahu, I would have said to the leaders in Gaza long ago: “You have two weeks to deliver the prisoner unharmed or we turn Gaza into a pockmarked parking lot leaving not a cockroach alive.” And by God, I would follow through. I simply don’t understand Israel today. I recall Moshe Dayan making a critical statement about America in its conflict with Vietnam. He didn’t understand our pulling punches. “In a war you go in to win,” he said. Has Israel forgotten this?
Get Shalit home fast. That removes a public relations/perception problem from any Gaza attack – Israel will now be given freedom of action and restraint will be lessened.
The 1000+ can always be killed or recaptured at any time – killed more likely, and as another poster said: they are now all suspect to their own – some will be killed by their own – great!!: an arab spring roast.
Get Shalit home now alive.
Then pave Gaza.
Personally, I think that capitulating to the demands of terrorists is never a good idea. It is folding to blackmail, and encourages more of the same.
And in this case, the payment is astronomical… 1000 to 1.
But I am not an Israeli and don’t stand in judgment on how another country deals with the issues of its own security and survival.
However, one thing I am always impressed with Israel about… that a single life (e.g. Shalit’s) is worth so much. And this distinguishes humans from animals.
On the one side, we have humans (Israel) who value each and every individual life. On the other side, we have animals (“palestinians”) who totally devalue all life for the sake of their religio-political cause.
This can be seen daily not only in rockets launched and suicide bombers targeting civilian populations, but also in the anti-semitic hatred and violence taught to their children via television and other media.
So, even though I don’t necessarily agree with this lopsided trade of prisoners (1000+ terrorists vs 1 Israeli soldier) its just one more reason to stand for humanity (Israel) in the midst of savagery (palestinians and the Arab/Muslim world in general).
“This can be seen daily not only in rockets launched and suicide bombers targeting civilian populations, but also in the anti-semitic hatred and violence taught to their children via television and other media.”
See DanS #22…Get Shalit home now alive. Then pave Gaza.
When you put on the uniform, you give a due bill for one life: you perhaps stand to make the ultimate sacrifice that others may live.
In this case, enemies will be released who will put others in risk of their lives, which would not be the case had Shalit died or been rescued. The whole meaning for service is reversed with other put in line for death in to save him.
Islam claim that they love death more than life. I think rather that they believe that some sorts of life are worse than death.
Personally I would not serve with people who would put their fellows at risk this way nor would I risk dying in their company. In uniform you should be willing to lay down your life for others, and not put them at risk to save you.
“If life is your highest value, there is nothing you won’t betray.”
Israel has done that very thing here, which makes them potentially a very risky ally.
The Arabs care only about hurting Israel. Human life is of no worth to them. All we can do is pray and hope Jewish children are not fed to Molech in the future. Appeasing evil never leads to good. And the terms of this deal contravenes all that is right and just. I would be against it if Gilad Shalit weren’t in the picture and I’m all the more so against it that he is part of this deal. In my personal opinion, its not worth the price of his freedom.
Inject some, microchip all. Then free ‘em.