By Barry Rubin
Every time I strongly criticize the Obama Administration’s foreign policy, there are those who think calling this president’s policy incredibly disastrous is an exaggeration. Within a few hours, however, this government proves my criticism to be accurate by still another astonishingly damaging, wrong-headed action . Here is the latest example.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has announced the establishment of a new Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCTF). According to the statement, this initiative is the main activity in the administration’s effort to organize a framework for the international counterterrorism effort. In other words, it is very important.
But when I read the announcement, I can’t help but think: there goes another several hundred million dollars. Is this group actually going to do something that cannot be done by existing organizations? Is the best way to fight terrorism to create new bureaucracies with office space, highly-paid staff, international travel, more useless documents, and expensive conferences?
The statement explains the purpose of this new organization:
“To address the evolving terrorist threat…by helping frontline countries and affected regions acquire the means to deal with threats they face. It is based on a recognition that the U.S. alone cannot eliminate every terrorist or terrorist organization. Rather, the international community must come together to assist countries as they work to confront the terrorist threat.”
The language is, of course, that of Obama Administration multilateralism. Yet what is the motive of a country to help eliminate terrorists? Self-interest because those countries or their interests are being attacked by those groups. And when do they not do so? When they support the terrorists’ aims. Thus, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan are not going to be allies in the battle against Hamas, Hizballah, and radical Islamist groups generally. Will more American-sponsored training increase Pakistan’s effectiveness when corruption and political policy makes its military protect, even help, al-Qaida?
Inasmuch as the plan for the group expresses any real-world purpose, it is to help the countries most targeted by terrorism. There are 30 founding members. Most of them—I’d say two-thirds—face no serious terrorist threat today. The Middle East members include Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
Switzerland is a mmber; Pakistan and India, despite the former’s sponsoring terrorism agianst the latter, are members; Israel is not. Remember that Israel is not only the country most threatened by terrorism but also the one with the most experience and greatest expertise in fighting terrorism. Of course, the eight Arab states—along with founders Indonesia and Pakistan—would not participate in programs alongside Israel. But this problem could easily have been managed in a number of ways, as it has been done before in many such groups, for example by creating regional sub-sections.
Finally, among the new organization’s plans is the “first-ever multilateral training and research center focused on countering violent extremism, which would be based in the Gulf region.” Note that by siting it in the Gulf region, as opposed to all of the other places it could have been done, ensures that no Israeli will ever be an instructor or a student there. The center easily could have been put in the territory of more than twenty other non-Arab members.
But there’s more. The United States is not leading this new organization alone. It has a co-director. That co-director is Turkey.
Certainly, Turkey has faced terrorism in the past. While one has great sympathy for it in that battle, the Turkish government has also used methods involving death squads and human rights’ violations far worse than those methods condemned loudly by the United States when done by other countries.
Unfortunately, too, the Turkish regime now is a major supporter of such terrorist groups as Hamas and Hizballah. In addition, the Turkish government is closely aligned with the IHH, an Islamist terrorist group which the Turkish government backed in the Gaza Flotilla in order to create an international crisis.
At the very moment when the U.S. government is making the Turkish government its partner in fighting terrorism, that same government is turning Turkey into a dictatorship. Every day, military officers are being arrested on ridiculous charges. Freedom is steadily contracting.
On the international level, the Obama Administration is rewarding a government that opposed U.S.-backed sanctions on Iran and stabbed the U.S. government in the back by trying to push a separate deal with Iran to subvert the sanctions effort. And it is also rewarding the Ankara government by making it the U.S.-appointed mediator over the future of Syria, despite the fact that the Turkish regime is favoring a future Islamist government in Damascus, as Syrian oppositionists complain bitterly.
The “Turkish model,” which the U.S. government often champions for the Arabic-speaking world, means in reality the creation of Islamist, anti-Western, regimes that at home seek to transform their societies at home into Islamist dictatorships and their foreign policies into supporting terrorist groups, fighting Israel, and undermining other U.S. allies. This is not, to say the least, a brilliant idea.
But what transforms this from the absurd and bizarre to the truly dangerous is the fact that the U.S. government is once again raising the status of Turkey at a time when its prime minister is openly talking of war with Israel and acting in a more reckless, shortsighted manner than any Turkish government has since 1914.
As a matter of history, that government foolishly entered World War One on the German side. Within four years the result was the Armenian massacres, total defeat, the loss of the country’s empire, horrendous disease and death that wiped out twenty percent of Anatolia’s population, and the occupation by foreign armies of large parts of Turkey.
Reacting to this experience, Kemal Ataturk, who founded the republic, wisely expounded the dictum that directed Turkey’s foreign policy for eight decades: peace at home; peace abroad. That is no longer the guiding concept of the Islamist regime’s foreign policy.
Perfect. Turkey’s air force just had the IFF transponders in their F-16′s changed so that Israeli aircraft are now identified as “FOE.”
War is coming in the Middle East, probably before November ’12. What will King Putt do? G-d help Israel.
On the flipside, it also makes it easier for the IAF to identify Turkish aircraft.
But yes, this whole situation is insane and proves that Obama and Hilary are the most incompetent stewards of US foreign policy ever.
Dear Prof. Rubin.
It’s very difficult to comment, I mean, really, what can one say?
We watch with amazement this amateur-hour team of idiots at the helm of the world’s only super-power, their stupidity just leaves me speechless.
What is even more incredible is that nothing, absolutely nothing, makes the news. Is there no over-sight from Congress?
“their stupidity just leaves me speechless.” I agree!
Turkey’s going rogue? No problem. It’s a dispute among friends. Move along, nothing to see here.
On the other hand, an Israeli passes gas in East Jerusalem?! Don’t let that crisis go to waste.
/sarcasm
‘Within four years the result was the Armenian massacres’
Mr. Rubin
You fagot to mention that the same Kemal Ataturk, carpet bombed the Kurds as soon he solidified his regime. I know Kurd whose their parents and grandparents were killed during late 20′s and early 30′s by Ataturk and latter by Inonü. The Turks always being a militaristic nation. I know I was born there
Please, Attila. Mr. Rubin is not a fagot.
And don’t forget that a large section of the Turkish Science Academy just resigned enmasse – and for much the same reason as the mass military resignations.
I guess the Obama administration has gained confidence from their experience in Libya, where everybody participated and the Islamist can’t just blame America. This administration wants a one world order, that’s why we see this ridiculous idea. Once again this will be another example of leading from behind and wasting more tax payer money. Oh yea, have they caught Qaddafi yet?
At every opportunity Obama supports Islamist regimes or Islamists seeking power —
– going back to before he was president when he supported Odinga and the Islamists against the Kenyan government — which was a U.S. ally, in violation (so I read) of the Logan Act. (There’s a video of Obama encouraging a group basically to rise up against their “corrupt” government (our ally) — Many Kenyans were slaughtered by those Islamists during the uprising that followed. I believe the Islamists have, if not all, a great deal more power in Kenya now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6eVVVKFHu0&feature=related (See his speech at 2:42 minutes).
I don’t know about you, but what other conclusion is there to come to but that he’s extremely pro-Islamist and supports them far and above secular democratic governments and movements.
His non-support of the Iranian protestors in favor of the regime, and his weakness in general regarding that regime … it’s … well … odd. Same goes for his soft treatment of Syria’s Assad (who, though not an Islamist, is aligned with Islamist Iran.)
His support (and partnering with!) Turkey’s Islamist regime — well, I guess some could guess he’s attempting to sweet-talk and flatter Turkey away from it’s alliance with Iran … but that would be so collossally stupid and foolish … I just can’t believe he could be that dumb.
Just what can be concluded from this behavior?
Don’t forget his kowtow to King Sod.
1. Turkey will again try and seek “justice” in a failed attempt at the Hague and UN. Why? See below.
2. Turkey has been warned that the present agreements regarding Cyprus clearly states that Cyprus (not North Cyprus which Turkey illegally occupies) has a right to control the usage of its territorial waters. North Cyprus will never have that power. What is being negotiated is the federal arrangement that states what percentage the North receives from energy extracted. It is not the right of North Cyprus to negotiate treaties, declare war or allow foreign air craft or naval vessels to operate from North Cyprus without the consent of the South that controls the majority of “shareholders”. In short, what Turkey claims isn’t even being negotiated under the accepted framework which keeps Greece AND Turkey in NATO. As far as Lebanon with its STL, Turkey has no right to trigger a war with Israel as a NATO member over Lebanese claims. The idea that Turkey owns Greece oil in the Aegean as well as a “cut” from “their” economic zone that extends to Egypt based on both a strange use of “continent shelf” and their recollections of the Ottoman Empire is also rejected by the EU.
3. Turkey knows that this direction makes it unlikely to join the EU or find satisfactory results in international courts. Perhaps it is hoping to disappoint the Turks with the West by portraying their callousness by the raving injustices Erdogan levels at Israel. He is trying however to frame this not in terms of international justice but rather Turkish Pride. He is trying to connect this to the Arab narrative of Arab Pride. He connects this with Iran via Iranian Pride though that street is not much on board, nor do I think the Turkish people understand where Erdogan is leading them while his engineers try to disable American FOF and tracking chips from their fighters. It should be obvious why Ankara suddenly reversed itself on Sept. 2 and accepted the X-band.
4. Plan B. Redogan offers Egypt lots of money to sign contracts for electrical and gas pipelines to travel on the ocean floor past Lebanon and Israel to Egypt. This will present serious problems for Israel as these lines bare policed by Turkey, used for nefarious purposes or as an excuse to accuse Israel from disrupting the lines (when they haven’t). This is a transparent attempt to map out the entire area as Turkey’s economic zone entitled to Turkish military protection. Erdogan has already stated that should Israel move into its exclusion zones or approach Flotillas their ships will move to within 100 meters and “disable Israeli weapon systems”. And they define Israel’s exclusion zone as limited to within 12 1/2 miles from its shores. This is hardly a position the EU or NATO can accept. To go forward with the X-band and withhold Predators is a garbled signal which the congress will wake up and see soon enough. Maybe it will start in District 9 in NY.
5. Muslim Brotherhood and other Salafists reject much of Erdogan’s “Turkish Model”, but that hardly interests him as Tantawi is is the person Erdogan uses the street to leverage. Erdogan once again risks associating himself with another hotspot, which should make clear his intention. His new dream is the Iron Triangle no mater his theater with Ahmadinejad.
6. Palestinian leadership withdrew its bid for Statehood and will likely just go to the Security Counsel. Erdogan will continue despite the bumps in the road with threats to Cyprus, Israel. His Press (which include most Turkish media) will continue to point to Israeli conspiracy to describe setbacks. Already US policy by his account is decided by the Jewish Lobby.
7. What has forced Erdogan’s hand of late (though he’s been planning this for years) may be the disaster in Syria, the aftermath of Libya, the coming leadership of the EU by Cyprus, the actions of Iran and of course the move to go forward with Cyprus and Israel energy exploration with assistance of Russian subs and Noble of Texas.
My worst fear however is that this administration might be deliberately inducing chaos as a means to radically shift US foreign policy despite the known wishes of the majority of Americans. Media? Why else would the repeatedly say on 9/11 that it will be a long time before America fights another war in the ME? What better declarations could they hear coming from the elites of America?
“They” being those against us in the ME….
“They” should be “Everyone”.
This piece of Obama New Left foreign policy idiocy fits in quite well with the domestic policy catastrophe he has inflicted on the US itself.
What is of greater concern is the it appears that Turkey under Erdogan is travelling down the same radical Islamic hate Israel road that has mired practically all the Arab Islamic states in poverty, ignorance, violence, and ill fated foreign adventures.
Even with a strong, informed, experienced, and determined American administration, that is, practically anyone but Barack Obama and his team of New Left clowns, Erdogan would probably act in the same wacked out manner.
But Obama’s incompetence and utter indifference to Turkey’s behavior certainly isn’t helping the situation.
“But what transforms this from the absurd and bizarre to the truly dangerous is the fact that the U.S. government is once again raising the status of Turkey at a time when its prime minister is openly talking of war with Israel and acting in a more reckless, shortsighted manner than any Turkish government has since 1914.”
Neither absurd no bizarre. Obama and the State department are in complete agreement that Israel must be cut down to size. Period
Exactly right!
Still, the tangle now does involve NATO and Greece. I expect Greece will allow Israel air force to use islands close to Turkey which would risk a counter-attack from the flank.
All the situation needs is a small sub from a third party to fire and the crisis escalate radically. This theater however is timed to the UN vote on Palestinian Statehood and the progress of Cyprus, Israel energy exploration. Cyprus only takes the EU helm after January.
Barry, Google News is running many headlines from Haaretz that give the impression that Israel is in deep internal turmoil: http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/the-shin-bet-s-hypocrisy-regarding-price-tag-gangs-1.384555 another one is “Fifty Reasons For Palestinian Statehood”. I see little counter to this as though the media trends have no impact. Turkey however, is launching a full court press: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/09/15/ap/business/main20106554.shtml
This appears to be the timing issue which Erdogan thinks he’s clever in attaching to the Palestinian issue. He works to get opposition forces and the Muslim Brotherhood to meet in Turkey, but his duplicity is well known: hxxp://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/09/15/syria.unrest/
So the question is what Obama will do as he is forced more and more into the vice. His Sec of Def says Pakistan must stop the insurgents seeking sanctuary in Pakistan. Pakistan threatens the US. Turkey threatens to unravel NATO. Palestinians threaten to move ahead with Statehood. Egypt destabilizes Camp David. Ahmadinejad is invited for dinner at Columbia University.
Again, I think an argument could be made that US policy has helped assist the chaos. The situation has deteriorated to the point that the administration could use the opportunity to shift US policy and lay the blame on others. Will Congress wake up? Will the republicans wake up? Will more moderate Liberals wake up?
Without American Leadership and clear and transparent principles made by a determined administration, the events in the ME are likely to slip out of control even further. I have no doubt from Afghanistan to Cyprus, the forces aligned against us (including a silent alliance) see the moment as a low ebb in US power and interest. Evolution is not kind to weakness, nor is history written by losers.
Before screaming about how Obama wants Israel cut down to size, we Americans must not lose sight of history nor look at this through the prism of partisan politics no matter the problems with this administration.
The US was not a critical supporter of Israel at the time of the 67 war though without a doubt Truman, over many objections including the defense establishment, supported the new Jewish State of Israel. it was in 1973 that the US emerged as a power broker saving Egypt army from destruction. As Michael Totten recently points out, most Egyptians think they won that war to this day. So what was the American view as the Nixon administration sent Kissinger to the ME?
http://www.meforum.org/1032/henry-kissinger-to-iraq-in-1975-we-can-reduce
Does this sit well with anyone including the Republicans here? The GOP was fine with Israel turning out like the mess we call Lebanon, you know, the place Hizb’Allah blasted the Reagan-sent Marines back home.
Then we had Carter how capitalized on the inroads Nixon made with the Egyptians, bribing them to sign the Camp David agreements which lead to the murder of Sadat by who? Reagan surely has a mixed record as did Bush Senior so it wasn’t until Bill Clinton that the US moved towards seeing Israel as a Strong Horse they could support. Clinton and Barak offered a good deal to Arafat who refused it and instead unleashed violence. I think I’m being fair here in this summary although some experts say that the Palestinians refused 31 offers of peace. Certainly, what Clinton offered was even better than what is contemplated by Israel today.
O f course it was only with George Bush that the GOP moved by many Christian partisans saw Israel as both a security ally in the war on terror and the required nation in the screenplay called Revelations. I say this only to point out that there ARE religious motivations for much of the evangelistic fascination with Israel. This alliance has infuriated the Left which sees the religious extremists of Israel and Christianity joining forces so to speak.
The problem of course is that many miss the issues in their speculation of the future. He is an example coming from NYU: hxxp://english.ruvr.ru/2011/09/15/56223443.html The writer fails to mention the Russian subs that were offered to protect Cypus oil exploration. Nor did he discuss the threat to disable FOF and tracking chips in US exports to Turkey. he failed to register RUSSIAN objections to the X-band basing or the problems with Russia passing the straights near Istanbul to service their MED fleet.
So as people debate, rant, disseminate and advocate, it is clear we must view the wide context as well as the flash points. In discussing real American Interests we must steer clear of partisan talking points, false history or “solutions” that don’t address underlying causes.
No doubt Mr. Rubin is committed to that, but the question is, are his readers?
36 years ago:
“We don’t need Israel for influence in the Arab world. On the contrary, Israel does us more harm than good in the Arab world. You yourself said your objection to us is Israel. Except maybe that we are capitalists. We can’t negotiate about the existence of Israel, but we can reduce its size to historical proportions. I don’t agree that Israel is a permanent threat. How can a nation of three million be a permanent threat? They have a technical advantage now. But it is inconceivable that peoples with wealth and skill and the tradition of the Arabs won’t develop the capacity that is needed. So I think in ten to fifteen years, Israel will be like Lebanon—struggling for existence, with no influence in the Arab world.” Henry Kissinger, the Republican Secretary of the State to the most radical regime in the Middle East; Iraq 1975
Erodogon is leading Turkey right into the Arab swamp. His blustering threats to Israel have taken on a farcical character. Only a fool goes looking for war. It takes a bigger fool to make idle threats about one so either way he is exposed. That might work on the streets of Cairo but then again so do Mossad Sharks.
It would be very helpful if a call could be made from Washington informing Erodogon that if he keeps acting this way his shipment of F-35s will be going to Israel instead.
While Israel must remain on alert I think the chance of conflict with Turkey is far smaller than most here think. Erdogans saber rattling have more to do with Egyptian gas and other energy challenges Turkey faces than the so called ” palestinian ” problem.
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=TU
Turkey it should be noted is a target rich environment, should it come to that.
comment 11 is still waiting approval
If Israel goes to war with Turkey, history will be enriched with a first: the apology wars… And that idiot (Lieberman) will surely get all the credit…
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