By Barry Rubin
A few hours ago I wrote that the Egyptian military government reportedly told Israel that a major Israeli offensive into the Gaza Strip might create an out-of-control situation in Egypt. The Egyptian generals weren’t being threatening or hostile, they were saying that they could either not control a wave of violence that would result or perhaps be unable to resist demands for strong action. For this and other reasons, Israel has not retaliated.
One reason for the generals’ lack of desire to confront Israel now–aside from knowing they would be defeated and lose U.S. aid–is that they may be aware of three things. First, the Egyptian government has acknowledged that three Egyptian citizens participated in the terror attack on Israel. The story is covered here.
Second, as was made clear by his comrades at the funeral, Egyptian soldiers killed an Israeli soldier in an unprovoked shooting as the Israelis were packing up to leave the border area.
Third, the Egyptian government knows that three Egyptian soldiers were not killed by Israel on purpose but were spotted by an Israeli helicopter hunting the terrorists, who were wearing Egyptian army uniforms, and fired two missiles and machine guns at them.
Remember, by the way, that the Mubarak-era commanders are still in control of the army. Within a year, these people will be gone, possibly to be replaced by hotter-headed subordinates appointed by a radical nationalist president presiding over a largely Islamist-radical left parliament.
But as i have written since January, Hamas well understands this situation and apparently wants to provoke a confrontation. The pattern is clear: a ceasefire is announced by Hamas, the world media reports a ceasefire is in place, and then more rockets rain down on Israel fired by Islamic Jihad, Hamas’s ally, obviously with Hamas’s permission.
Before the terror attack, there were serious negotiations about a prisoner exchange to free Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who is 25 years old today. While they probably would not have succeeded, people familiar with the situation thought they came closer than many previous tries.
But back to the strategic situation. A lot of rockets are being fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel to provoke an Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip in order to set off a massive crisis. On Wednesday, August 24, alone more than 20 rockets were fired into Israel. What should Israel do? There is no easy answer. Israel is targeting specific rocket and terrorist sites in the Gaza Strip, especially those of Islamic Jihad, a Hamas ally, but refrained from a bigger attack.
If you don’t think this strategy works for the terrorists, read for example the Washington Post, which reports that Israel broke the ceasefire by attacking Gaza, not mentioning that rockets had been continually fired from the Gaza Strip against Israel. In other words, terrorist groups know how to play the Western media like a fiddle. Readers of the Washington Post, and no doubt other newspapers, are being told that those nice Hamas people wanted a ceasefire but Israel acted as the aggressor, a wonderful case study of how media coverage helps recruit sympathy for terrorists. Here’s an ongoing count of rocket attacks on Israel.
And where are all the weapons coming from for terrorists in Sinai and Gaza? From Libya. Amid the celebrations of the apparent downfall of the dictatorship, a lot of money is being made by selling and smuggling arms to terrorists. And the Palestinian Authority, always described in the Western media as “moderate” endorsed the cross-border attack from Egypt.
Meanwhile, every day the Turkish regime is arresting officers and dissidents on the most ridiculous charges of conspiring to murder people and overthrow the regime. The Western media largely ignores these stories and even continues to praise the regime. In fact, this very Islamist regime is being used by the Obama Administration to mediate the future of Syria!
Finally, the allegedly moderate Muslim Brotherhood is gaining confidence and increasing its demands. Media Line reports that the Brotherhood’s political party is now demanding the Ministry of Tourism institute a dress code for tourists and starting to push for the ban of alcohol sales in Egypt.
Here’s the quote of the day, from Professor Hani Henry of the American University in Cairo,:
“This is how things began in Iran. The moderate youth wanted to implement changes, but the mullahs hijacked the revolution. The same thing is now happening here in Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood. It makes me sick to my stomach.”
Me, too. Here’s a sensible analysis from a former British ambassador to Syria of prospects for Syria and Libya.
And speaking of acid reflux, consider this from the great Media Sampler (featured daily here)
David Bernstein at the Volokh Conspiracy writes about a video of Sarah Leah Whitson of Human Rights Watch discussing the Arab world in 2009.’ He singles out the following part of her talk:
“The weirdest moment in the talk, though, is when Whitson points out that no Arab country allows freedom of speech, the cornerstone of a free society. What one example, of all possible examples, does she use to illustrate the lack of freedom of speech? That Arab governments tried to prevent their populations from protesting Israel’s actions in Gaza in the war against Hamas in late 2008/early 2009. Just, WOW!”
In other words, the key leader of one of the world’s main “human rights” groups–a woman who previously was trying to fundraise for Human Rights Watch in Saudi Arabia by bragging about how they bashed Israel–argues that the most important use of freedom of speech is to attack Israel. Yes (sarcasm used), that’s been the main right Arabs have been denied for decades. Of course, the Islamists, radical nationalists, and many of the “moderates” agree with her. No doubt, the number-two item is attacking the United States.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and Middle East editor and featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). GLORIA Center site is http://www.gloria-center.org. His articles published originally outside of PajamasMedia are here
‘What should Israel do? There is no easy answer’
Israel is so worried about what the Gobbels media have to say instead of taking care of business.So fearful and worried about worthless public opinion so much more than protecting their own citizens.
This is beyond quisling leadership.
The leadership have become such trained poodles of America’s failed restraint policy that they twiddle their thumbs and ask ;
‘What should Israel do? There is no easy answer’
instead of ending the threat from Hamas in Gaza permanently which is the only answer.
Israel used to defeat her enemies before her close ally entered in with the peace process.
Now the concept of defeating ones enemy is forgotten and replace with the pathetic ;’What should Israel do? There is no easy answer’
The intelligentsia of Israel retreated from Gaza and surrendered the Philadelphia Corridor where smuggling of weapons and missiles was stopped by the IDF ,all because the U.S. told them to do it for their strange peace and now Israels cities are under constant attack and the fools say ;
‘What should Israel do? There is no easy answer’ because they do not have permission from their pimps in Washington to defeat Hamas or Hizbollah.
Restraint is the message to ISRAEL from the US,EU,UN and the lap dogs Netanyahu and Barak are well trained and obedient and Israle suffers.
Sadly ,the restrained Jews are once again told not to resist and go silently,submissivly and they are obedient to their peace pimp destroyers.
The countdown to another major ME war has begun. I believe that the restraint shown by Israel is due, in part, to the realization that the Obama administration is a radical leftist regime hiding behind a liberal facade. The leftist elite in the US would be delighted with Israel’s complete extermination. On this issue US leftists walk in complete solidarity with Ahmadinejad. (They even shared some of his imaginery.) Because the left will use ANY major action by Israel as justification for withdrawing vital military supplies, the Israelis have no room for error. They must allow the other side to initiate the first major operation in order to deny the left a public relations victory.
How soon we forget! Or how quickly the revisionists like to rewrite history to fit into their fantasy world.
It was under the rule of right wing President Bush that his personal vision of a Palestinian state (google June28,2002 Bush speech)which led him to force P.M. Ariel Sharon to make Gush Katif Judenrein of living and dead Jews.
Remember Sharon’s Czechoslovakia speech?
And under eight straight years of right wing president Bush’s rule Israel was always restrained and the Palestinians always rewarded for their terrorism.
It was under the phony Bush that Israel was restrained from defeating Hizbollah in the summer of 2006 and restrained from defeating Hamas in early January of 2009.
Under the constant CFR dominated American oligarchy the policy against Israel remains the same and never changes whether under a republican or a democrat.
The solid proof is that the Republican party platform like the Democrat platform calls for the creation of a totally unnecessary Palestinian state in the heart of Isrsael.
Bush isn’t and never was right wing. He was/is a RINO. However, I’m inclined to agree with you regarding the US policy towards Israel.
There is no need of yet another failed arab state.
“How soon we forget! Or how quickly the revisionists like to rewrite history to fit into their fantasy world.”
What in hell are you talking about? Nowhere in my post was there an effort to “rewrite” or “revise” any history concerning the Bush (or do you prefer “Bu$Hilter”) years. It dealt with the US left and the US left only. What does Bush’s policies have to do with my post about the left? And as for “into their fantasy world”, what I wrote is no fantasy. In the thirty years since high school, through undergraduate and graduate school and after I have listen to the left’s speeches, read their newspapers, pamphlets and websites, and suffered through vitriol bile in Sproul Plaza and elsewhere. Hell, at work, I have had loud arguments with a Noam Chomsky sycophant who maintained that the ONLY path to genuine peace in the ME lies in “Israel’s extermination”. (Yes, he did use that phase.) I stand by every word in my post.
As for “right wing President Bush” and “phony Bush” , OMG it’s the “it’s all Bush’s fault” combined with the AABA (Always Attack and Blame America) playbill. In spite all of Bush’s many faults and disastrous policies at least he did not get introduced into politics by Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn; make preposterous claims as to Islam’s role in founding of America; did not sit in the pews of Rev Wright’s Church for 20 years and then claim to have not been paying attention the entire time; attend an anti Israel event in order to give a testimonial to Rashid Khalidi, an event that the LA Times still refuses to release a video recording made at the event.
I find it interesting that in your post you make no attempt to refute my arguments, but, instead, launch into a diatribe about Bush and make veiled accusations about the US being a phony democracy (“constant CFR dominated American oligarchy”). The CFR! Really? Oh, news flash! The “grass roots” of the Republican Party are in open revolt against institutional Republicans (like Bush) so the inference that the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are essentially the same is just plain silly.
For years I have defended Israel to my fellow Americans and will continue to do so. What we do not need is a prick like you Marcel using a pro-Israeli post to as an excuse spew more anti-American bile. In other words, Marcel, FU.
What does Bush’s policies have to do with my post about the left?
By leaving out the one who made Obama’s rise possible you whitewash history.
You’re as bad as the hypocrites on the left who are always pointing fingers away from themselves.
I’m so sick of the shallow right who give their trashman Bush a pass by their silence or making excuses for him as you have done.
LOL! Nice try troll.
You are very right to point out Bush’s record was far from clear, but I think you miss the difference between Bush and Obama, and that while President Bush has ‘helped’ in some cases, the blame mostly rests on Israeli leaders in the cases you mention.
The disengagement idea was floated in Israel since the 90s (Rabin’s “Gaza and Jericho first”, followed by Shiftan’s book in 1999, etc.), and the 2006 war was hampered much more by the Israeli Left coalition hoping to do anything to avoid large troop entry until it was too late (it would have made their main election promises ridiculous) than by American pressure. Bush sometimes pressured Israel (like getting Hamas to participate in the 2006 election), but if Israel said “no”, he wouldn’t have pushed further (e.g. like he folded during “Defensive Shield”). He did not seem anywhere as bad as Obama is now.
All this brilliant comment and rhetoric is great and wonderful for those convinced of israel’s right to exist as a jewish state.
Making a dent in the worlds majority who oppose this view and who support terrorism tacitly or overtly against israel and jews is the thing we are not doing.
Saudi arabia alone spends billions of dollars promoting hatred in real ways
while we pen reasoned treatises and peddle them to the converted.
Israel cannot and will not survive like this, the Arabs and jew haters are patient and unafraid of death and in fact welcome death in the knowledge that their families will be well looked after for their martyrdom by the very west that purports to be even handed regarding israel’s plight and the palestinian
aspirations to own all the land israel currently owns.
Whilst Israel displays all the banners of democracy proudly and overtly they are ignored by the west and the african /arab bloc so no matter how much israel’s will is bent by the ultra orthodox jews in the unworkable coalition that controls Israel’s long term fate there will be no change of attitude from
the other side.
Israel must defy the political correctness that is ruining it slowly but surely
and revert to aggression because only a show of strength will prevail in this deadly unfriendly region where a jews life is worthless; in fact it is worth a lot of money to the terrorist who kills him or his family with the added bonus of having plazas named after you for heroism in murdering jews, babies included.
That is the reality that the anti semitic world espouses and encourages.
“Making a dent in the worlds majority who oppose this view and who support terrorism tacitly or overtly against israel and jews”
The world majority is indifferent, and acts according to mostly interests rather than opinions. Israel needs to learn to throw its weight around.
“Israel cannot and will not survive like this, the Arabs and jew haters are patient and unafraid of death”
Israel managed well so far, and I believe it will keep doing so (esp. with some course corrections). Ultimately, our enemies ‘strengths’ work against them – their hatred overrides their reason and their violence ends up directed just as much at their own societies. The main threat is the errors we make due to leftism and wishful thinking. However, recent experience has weakened these streaks – Israel will now make any more such errors.
I do not think Israel should determine the right course of action based on what best suits Egypt, however, it is important to consider the ramifications. What are the pros vs. cons of Israeli action in Gaza Strip? This is something that needs to be analyzed in detail ASAP.
I cannot foresee any increased U.S. involvement in the Middle East given the current economic situation, which is still struggling to recover since the recent financial crisis. The military role is being reduced in Iraq and potentially more so in Afghanistan, and with limited intervention in Libya. To continue along the same lines in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, [insert Arab country here] is unsustainable. Ultimately, the future of the U.S. position both diplomatically and militarily will depend on the outcome of the next presidential election. Until, then let us hope that no Islamist group, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, can obtain enough control of the chaotic domestic environment to establish an Islamist regime.
Unfortunately, I have a feeling that Israel will have to begin taking a more independent role in dictating ME geopolitics. Essentially, acting unilaterally without U.S. backing, whether it is a result from U.S. hesitance or inability due to domestic restraint. This will not doubt cause immense uproar in the ME as well as internationally, making Israel even less favored in the region.
What I am curious to see, is whether Israel can begin engaging these Arab countries unilaterally, without U.S. support, to counter the regional dominance of Iran.
How can Israel improve its image among its neighbours, which is at present so bad, other than by accepting a Palestinian state?
Is there any other way?
When Israel annexes Judea and Samaria and defeats the enemy, Hamas,Fatah,Hizbollah and drives the surviving enemy out of Israel ,there will be a sea change in respect for the country by people who understand moral courage.
Those who don’t,who cares what they think.
This is all so predictable, unrest throughout the Arab world, and the Palestinians try to provoke Israel into snatching the spotlight away.
Besides, this recent round of unprovoked Palestinian attacks on Israelis followed by Israeli military retaliation, followed by a tense calms has been played over and over umpteen times.
This time the terrorist regimes in Libya and Syria, and the Islamic hotheads in Egypt are the ones urging the Hamas in Gaza to do everything it can to draw US and European attention away from them, and focus on Israel.
Of course Israel should not fall into this so obvious trap and simply deal with Hamas the way Israel always has, use air strikes to kill few Palestinian terrorist leaders and gangs, let the world shed a few crocodile tears, and continue on her merry way.
Barak agrees to the deployment of thousands of Egyptian troops in Sinai.
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=235506
Nevertheless I am definitely open to innovative concepts. May have to think about it. Nice site anyway.