By Barry Rubin
To begin with, President Obama’s supporters are praising him for having overthrown Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qadhafi at no cost in American lives. I predict that the situation will break down within months into factional infighting, atrocities against civilians, and become a general mess. The main likelihood is not of an Islamist takeover but of rather nasty anarchy. While Obama’s team are crowing today they will be eating crow–or more likely be blaming somebody else–by early next year at the latest.
In his column for NowLebanon, entitled “Qaddafi’s fall, Obama’s vindication,” Hussein Ibish gushes:
“Though his decision to intervene in Libya was criticized from all sides, now President Obama can add Muammar Qaddafi’s scalp to that of Osama bin Laden. Unless Libya degenerates into total anarchy over the next 12 months, Obama will be virtually untouchable on foreign policy issues in the upcoming election campaign.”
Not so fast! How about,aside from anarchy in Libya, such things as: the emergence of a radical, anti-American Egypt beating war drums against Israel; Lebanon increasingly a Hizballah puppet; Turkey rapidly becoming a police state sabotaging U.S. interests; a Syria in which the Obama Administration is idiotic enough to use the aforementioned Turkey as mediator thus helping radical Islamists there; an increasingly aggressive Iran; an explosion of anti-Americanism after Obama vetoes unilateral Palestinian independence; and lots more.
A walk down memory lane:
1991: Bush I defeats Iraq. Americans cheer
1992: Bush I loses election
2003 Bush II defeats Iraq. American cheer watching US forces advance at top speed; Saddam statue toppled. (Yes, I know Bush II was reelected in 2004 BUT…)
2008: As Americans heavily criticize the war in Iraq, this becomes the number-one foreign policy issue helping Obama to be elected. .
I think Obama will be incredibly “touchable” on Middle East policy. It’s just that much of the mass media will sound like Ibish or jibberish on these issues.
1. A relatively reliable Egyptian newspaper is reporting that three of the terrorists killed in the cross-border attack on Israel were Egyptian citizens. Since the terrorists went from Gaza through Egyptian territory it is quite likely that they had such help and participation by Egyptians. If true, will the Egyptian government acknowledge this and what group did the Egyptian terrorists work with inside their country?
I have heard privately a detailed account from eyewitnesses that Egyptian troops fired on Israeli soldiers and were responsible for the death of an Israeli sniper but have not been able to confirm that.
2. An Israeli newspaper report says that the Egyptian government warned Israel that if there was a major Israeli operation against the Gaza Strip, where Hamas was launching about 100 rockets against Israel, it could not guarantee being able to control its population. If the report is accurate, the warning was not a threat but a statement of concern seeking to avoid a confrontation. The Israeli government decided not to respond with a major operation at this time. I believe this is the correct decision, especially on the eve of the UN debate over a Palestinian unilateral declaration of independence. Israel wants to maximize international support over the next month. The timing will be better in future, as well as having better intelligence.
Again, I would stress that the report of the warning is not confirmed. I would add, by the way, that the situation in Egypt is likely to worsen over time, especially once the military government leaves office. But on the other side, if Israel is going to attack the Gaza Strip it might be preferable to do so when the Egyptian army isn’t running things, and thus doesn’t feel directly attacked itself. The level of provocation could be clearer and the UN issue over. All of this could happen as early as late November.
It is of the greatest importance that the U.S. government make clear to Egypt’s regime the “red lines” that the Obama Administration would not allow to be crossed. A normal U.S. government would politely lay out the conditions that would lead to a cut-off of U.S. aid to Egypt (suspending the peace treaty with Israel; assisting terrorists to cross the border; allowing a free flow of weapons into the Gaza Strip, the failure to protect American citizens and property, etc). The fact that this isn’t going to happen due to President Barack Obama’s unique approach to international affairs makes a future war likely.
3. A good report on the attacking Palestinian group is available here Portions of the group work with al-Qaida; other factions work closely with Hamas. A key question is going to be whether Israel decides that Hamas was directly involved in the attack, increasing the likelihood of direct retaliation in the coming months.
4. In another development, there has been a split in the Syrian opposition. When leaders opposing the Syrian regime decided to proclaim the post-Assad country to be an “Arab republic,” the non-Arab Kurds walked out. Syrian Kurds, who play an important part in the opposition, have also been grumbling privately about other things, specifically the involvement of their enemy, Turkey, in negotiating the future of Syria, and their own claims of increasing Muslim Brotherhood power within the Syrian revolution.
The Syrian Kurds are obviously inspired by the success of their fellow Kurds in Iraq to keep the definition of Iraq as “Arab” out of that country’s constitution
PS: Some people have missed my point about Obama playing golf. He was playing golf and vacationing as a very dangerous attack was changing the whole Egypt-Israel equation and while the Libya revolution was moving to an endgame and while the future of Syria is being turned over by him to the Islamist regime in Turkey. I don’t care how often Obama plays golf but my point is that he did not interrupt his vacation and did not take a leadership role on these three issues as they were taking place. And I don’t care whether he was being briefed on the situation, the point is that there was no strong presidential involvement.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and Middle East editor and featured columnist at PajamasMedia http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). GLORIA Center site is http://www.gloria-center.org.His articles published originally outside of PajamasMedia are at http://www.gloria-center.org
There is frankly so much fog surrounding these events that it’s hard to tell where the truth ends and the lies begin.
What is certain is that the Egyptian military regime and the Arab League, for whatever the reasons, have decided that escalating the tension between Israel and Egypt is counterproductive for the time being and have made every effort to defuse the situation.
I am inclined to believe that the US and the Europeans have pressured the Egyptians and the other Arab states to stop their incitement to violence against Israel given the serious problems in Libya and Syria, the instability in Egypt itself, and the global economic malaise which is just hammering Europe and beginning to be felt in the US.
Thus the situation vis a vis Hamas and Israel will continue to simmer at an acceptable level, with Hamas being careful not to push too hard, and Israel satisfying herself with limited and very exact IDF retaliation for any Hamas attacks.
No responsible state really wants to see another outbreak of serious violence in the Middle East, least of all violence involving Israel.
Is it likely that another reason for Israel’s/Netanyahu’s reticence also stems from a reluctance to create an excuse for Obama or some UN members to site with the PA on the statehood issue? Justice for the poor, downtrodden proletariat? That issue has been out there since well before last week’s attack from Sinai. As a total outsider, it seems to me it’s an issue driving Israeli policy toward Gaza for several months.
I do realize there is the irony in that, as pointed out by others, asking for a two state solution makes the PA look pretty crass, if not just plain stupid, given that it would be asking for 48 armistice line borders rather than what it REALLY wants – borders consisting of the Mediterranean, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Saudi.
Over the past couple of years, I have supported your organization both financially and morally but the tone of your work lately has turned sarcastic and bitter, particularly against Obama. Even this article makes the ludicrous statement regarding Obama playing golf. This is nuts and I’m actually getting really tired of what you’ve been saying of late. You can count me out as a supporter.
Respectfully,
Bob
Indeed, as a non American resident, I see what happens from outside USA, from Brazil, indeed… But the Obama foreign policy is tragic, all the evidences is that he his trying to facilitate the the rise of the muslim brotherhood and or the rabid nationalisms in arab states…
1. Let down the people revolt in Iran by keeping mute on the massacres promoted by Ahmadinejad. Iran is killing american soldiers in Irak, and do do not react
2. Be kind to the hezbolah, not insiosting on Hariri assassination investigation
3. Tolerant to Syria´s Assad… Now paying a lip service
4. Asked the head of the only pro-american ruler: Mubarak of Egypt
5. Harsh with Israel (some kind of atavic repulsion, the kind that the muslims have), the only sincere ally of the US in the region
6. Nanny-ing Abbas and PLO, even reffusing to resume “peace” talk with Israel
7. He is enable to lead or to understand what´s going on in the middle east.
Oh c’mon Bob, our president tends to slip, slink, fade away when he should be in the mix. Do not try to defend his leadership style or lack of. The clouds of life can make people testy, don’t leave a friend when they”re not up to snuff. Or do you expect constant harmony amongst friends?
I apologize if I sound like an interloper. I don’t know Bob. But, hey, he too may have a sliver in his bum. So he’s possibly venting.
“The Israeli government decided not to respond with a major operation at this time. I believe ths is the correct decision, especially on the eve of the UN debate over a Palestinian unilateral declaration of independence. Israel wants to maximize international support over the next month.”
I wonder if Barry Rubin would be so sure about Israeli restraint if for the last ten days he had heard the sirens screaming and Grad rockets falling on his head. When you experience it yourself it gives a different perspective. Let’s face it, would there have been the same reaction if for ten days now Grad rockets had been falling on Ramat Aviv?
The Israeli government made a mistake ten years ago when it did not react decisively to the first rocket attacks on Sderot. Now the same pattern seems to be emerging – there can always be a rationalization why NOT to what has to be done – a dangerous slippery slope. Apparently they still have not applied enough force for all the factions to plead for tahdiah, let alone a hudna.