By Barry Rubin
There is still confusion regarding some details of the terrorist assault by Gaza Palestinians affiliated with al-Qaida, from Egypt, into Israel, and then back into Egypt. Israeli survivors of the attack say the terrorists were wearing Egyptian army uniforms.
At one point, either confused or after the terrorists hid among a group of Egyptian soldiers dressed the same way, Israeli soldiers fired and reportedly killed three real Egyptian soldiers. Israel has apologized in line with international norms.
Amr Moussa, the man most likely to be Egypt’s next president and known for his hatred of Israel and strong dislike of the United States (a radical nationalist who opposes Islamism but might make a deal with the Brotherhood to get into power and to govern thereafter) gives a foretaste of his demagagic tendencies if elected. He tweeted:
“Israel has to realize that the days in which our sons are killed without an appropriate and strong reaction are forever gone.”
That sounds rather like a threat of war. Oh, he’ll be just fine running Egypt, right? For the record, let’s note that Egypt failed to guard its border, the shortcoming that made the whole shoot-out happen in the first place. Presumably Egypt won’t be apologizing to Israel. In fact, it has withdrawn its ambassador.
(A personal note. A couple of year ago, an Egyptian diplomat invited me to lunch in Tel Aviv. One of the things he said was that he had advised Israeli Arab citizens to reverse their policy of refusing to join Israel’ army. Then, he explained, they could get military training and have guns to use against Israel some day. They rejected the idea, he concluded. I’m not joking. That’s the way people really talk in the Middle East when they think it isn’t going to be reported. I should add that I never agreed on any confidentiality in that conversation.)
Nor will anyone in Egypt–not a single group, writer, or intellectual–publicly condemn the attack on Israel even though it was carried out by an al-Qaida affiliate that also wants an Islamist revolution in Egypt. Of course, the Egyptian military is attacking local al-Qaida revolutionaries within the country. But we are back to the pre-Sadat standard: Anything that kills Israelis is good.
What will happen when Hamas attacks Israel with rockets, mortars, and attempted cross-border attacks? Israel retaliates. President Moussa will again threaten war and while he probably would not go so far (“probably” does not make one feel secure), he would suspend the Egypt-Israel peace treaty or suspend the Israeli ambassador. Wouldn’t that make him a hero? And certainly Egypt would let money, Egyptian volunteers, and weapons flow freely into the Gaza Strip to help the “brothers” there confront “Zionist aggression.” The Arab world would cheer.
Here’s a good summary to remember this change: Hamas is to Egypt as to Hizballah is to Syria, a client and proxy terrorist group with which to hit Israel while avoiding direct confrontation. There are unconfirmed reports that Iran is cutting back on funding for Hamas–since Hamas wants Iran’s ally, the Syrian regime, to be overthrown. If that story is true, Egypt will be all the more important as Hamas’s new patron.
And what would President Obama do? One shudders to think but it might have something to do with playing golf.
Perhaps, though, Moussa won’t be president. Perhaps someone else will win the election. Either way, though, the president will have to deal with a strengthened parliament that will be around 40 percent radical Islamist, 10 percent far left, and much of the rest radical nationalist.
The New York Times has offered us, however, a definitional solution to the problem by creating a new political ideology. And I predict that we will be hearing a great deal about this new “movement” : the “liberal Islamist.”
“Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a liberal Islamist and former member of the Muslim Brotherhood, released a statement asking the ruling military council to deal with the incident as a matter of national security and demanded the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador as well as a halt of Egyptian gas shipments to Israel.”
Actually, though, Fotouh’s political role is not quite clear. He poses as a centrist nice guy who has split away from the Brotherhood. I rather suspect he is still a Brotherhood leader under cover. The Brotherhood promised not to run a candidate for president and Fotouh’s “split” give it a plausible deniability. But after all won’t the Brotherhood leaders and supporters be voting for Fotouh and reconcile with him immediately thereafter? Is there any real difference between Fotouh and the Brotherhood on substantive issues? Presumably “moderation” means going a bit slower in transforming Egypt into an Islamist state.
Of course Amr Moussa is more a representative of the old Egypt than anyone else in Egyptian politics today. But he is popular and demagoguery will make him more popular. Of course there are genuinely moderate people and parties that want to improve living standards, clean up corruption, and do other good things. The problem is, however, who will end up being in power.
If Amr Moussa is elected and the Brotherhood becomes the single biggest party in parliament we could well say “The revolution has been betrayed.” That would not be the first time in history that has happened. Others would say “The revolution has been fulfilled.” This is precisely what happened in Iran. Every day I hear from friends in Egypt how frightened or angry or upset or worried they are. I hope things will turn out well; as an analyst I must report what I see.
Incientally, even for a Middle East cynic like me the outpouring of Arab media support for the attack on Israel is surprising. After all, it is an al-Qaida operation and it would have been easy to pretend moderation, winning some brownie points in the West, by going tsk-tsk at the evil al-Qaida as opposed to the “wonderful” Hamas and Fatah.
Nope, even the official Palestinian Authority newspaper–rather than lay low to promote a nice image on the eve of the UN independence debate–praised the attack and cold-blooded murder of Israeli civilians. Presumably they don’t feel any need to pretend to be moderate since they know much of the Western media, academics, and even governments will give them a free pass no matter what they do or say.
Incidentally, NowLebanon, an excellent moderate source of news, estimates that almost 20,000 people have been killed in the “Arab Spring” (or as the Washington Post calls it, “Arab Transition,” disorders, mostly in Libya. The “Arab Spring” is not being followed by an Arab Summer, and next to come is the fall.
The exact details of Egyptian politics, while interesting, especially to a Middle-East specialist such as yourself, don’t matter much. What I would really like to see is an analysis of Israel’s political establishment & the reasons for our rather feeble response to the Eilat attack & the subsequent missile attacks from Gaza. We get a very distorted view from our crappy unprofessional lefty media.
I believe that the idea behind the feeble response was to help Tantawi, current Egyptian ruler.
My question, is weather it will actually help.
Part of the problem is that Ehud Barak – the worst politician in Israel’s history – bizarrely apologized to Egypt for ‘killing Egyptian security forces’. Remember Barak is also the person who, before looking at the evidence, apologized for the ‘killing’ of Muhammed Al-dura in September 2000; although this was subsequently proved to be a hoax it directly led to a thousand Israeli civilians being murdered in the subsequent intifada and the entire Muslim world has been indoctrinated about the Al-dura myth. Barak’s motives this time were the same as in 2000. He feels that apologising for something the Israelis were not responsible for is worth doing if it can ‘help calm things down’. See more here:
http://edgar1981.blogspot.com/2011/08/media-and-israeli-government-have-gone.html
To Mr. Terry, Eilat-Israel.
If Israel were a nation like the other nations of the world, He would have been
annihilated, exterminated and disappeared long ago, however Brave His Soldiers
Could Prove To Be.
Neither numerous Is His People, nor large His Land. His enemies in the past
had occupied The Latter and slaughtered The Former.
But all, from Amalek to Adolf, have joined each other on the trash pile of History.
Everytime GOD SAID “ENOUGH !”, Jacob’s Seed Is Being Regathered In His Own Land, while His enemies are being scattered.
This Regathering Is The Last, No More Dispersion.
And those who would like to give it another try will understand their own pain.
The long & the short of it is that Israel’ enemies will be wiped out.
This doesn’t by any means prove that Israeli leaders are admirable men
of power and genius.
Quite the contrary ! In June ’67, PM Levi Eshkol was all appeasement
while Chief of Staff Rabin collapsed nervously in the face of the odds.
And suddenly, three Arab armies on a geographical mission of redrawing Israel’s borders vanished, leaving behind their shoes and scientific instruments, like in ’56 but in a much widespread manner.
In October ’73, 2 super-trained Arab armies resumed the same borders-altering
mission. And got the same result. Israel Emerged Victorious Again.
But Israel’s leaders and generals whose unpreparedness had caused His People such grievous losses, spent their time afterward fighting each other for THE GLORY THAT IS DUE GOD ALONE.
And today is no different, in This Hour of Maximum Danger with enemies
rabidly raving after Israeli blood, former friends plotting foul Betrayal, wavering leaders, and disloyal, heedless citizenry blind to the perils that threaten its country, Israel looks again as on the verge of destruction by hell-bent suicide.
However nobody, from Israel to His enemies, acknowledges THE PRESENCE OF THE ONE WHO MAKES Israel HIS People, AND WHO DECLARES HIMSELF “THE FRIEND Of Abraham”, Jacob’s Grand-Father.
Israel Once More Will Be Victorious, This Time For Good, to the discomfiture
of His enemies.
And It won’t be Due to Israel’s leaders, although they will take the credit,
as usual.
This September will come to the nadir of Israel’s worldly fortunes, and the paroxysm of Islamic Arab hatred for Israel:
1- The Islamic Arab squatterrorists in Israel will declare “independence”,
turning the 1948 Table on Israel and making it a “Nakba” for The Latter.
2- They multiply the attacks against Israel to provoke Him into retaliation
and moving militarily into the squatterrorists’ enclaves in Gaza, Judea and Samaria.
As so to make Israel the aggressor.
3- The Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, will seize the situation as
a cheap opportunity to unify their mess of an Islamic Arab world in a djinnhad against Israel, and so stave off non-Arab Islamic influences from Ankara
& Tehran, in order to usher in an Islamic NW0 : 3 Islamic empires, the Arab,
the 0ttoman and the Persian dividing the world.
Or so they think.
4- While in Israel the rebellious citizenry and the disunited politicians
will continue their favorite games, heedless to The Nation’s Imperilment.
And in the blink of an eye, a New World Order will appear with the Arab empire
destroyed, and the 0ttoman and Persian ones stillborn.
In one masterful stroke Israel will shatter the Arab Islamic diabolical terrorist blackmail the Western world is in bondage until now.
The Persian and 0ttoman wannabes will have to find new leadership and allies
north of the Caucasus for the next round.
Let us face it :
There is not much to expect from Israel’s leadership right now,
and this will only embolden the Arab squatterrorists in Israel and abroad.
The Eilat naked aggression is a probe of Israel’s Will, and more is coming.
PM Netanyahu for all his courage and patriotism, is subjected to intolerable pressure from traitorous allies abroad and backstabbing fellow countrymen
at home.
Israel being a democracy cannot be expected to muzzle and smother the treasonous leftard howling.
Many Jews in the world are either lukewarm or downright hostile to a
Zionist State, viewing it as bad for their lucrative business with the
Islamic world.( Remember how the Jews in the Persian Empire were not that
anxious to go back and rebuild Jerusalem, until along came Haman who reminded
them of their Jewishness, in Queen Esther’s Time ? )
And even among those who go back to Israel(making Aliya) there are many who
keep a secret agenda of leftard subversion of Israel.
The leftard intelligentsia in Israel contribute their well-learned rhetoric
to the vilification of their own people.
ONLY IN GOD THE KEEPER Of Israel Is The Latter’s SALVATION TO BE FOUND.
And the world will get a Blessed Respite, OWING TO GOD’S BLESSING Of Israel.
Two topics:
a. keep in mind that the mob is being played by the Egyptian media. According to Israel Hayom, the Egyptian media only reported on the killed soldiers, and not the previous attack on civilians. Similar thing occurred some 26 years back at Ras Burqa. The killer was praised as hero in the media, which did not report that victims were children.
b.According to local reports in Hebrew news channels, the Israeli government tried to appease the Egyptians, hence the My question to Mr. Rubin is: Will it work?
The same day (Thursday) the Eilat killings were perpetrated,
Mr. Gideon Levy writing for Ha’aretz called Zionism “swinish”….
It doesn’t help to repeat that we’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. The time has come to do what Israel hasn’t done for 63 years, not even in ’67 – finish a war. Israel has to fight to defeat its enemies and demand they surrender so that Israel can dictate the terms and borders at the end of the fighting – not the wonderful United Nations. Already Israel has less land than the original State of Israel was intended to have. Why are we so brilliant and yet so stupid, so brave and yet so cowardly. We have to play by the ethical and honesty rules that is the foundation of who we are. We have to draw a line in the sand and issue a warning to the Palestinians and their other supporters – cross this line and we will destroy you this time. We are serious this time. When they cross the line, remind them of our promise and carry out our promise.