This isn’t just another terrorist attack — it’s a major escalation, a new phase in the Arab-Israeli conflict in two ways. First, it is the bitter fruit of the U.S-backed downfall of the government of President Husni Mubarak in Egypt, opening the Egypt-Israel border as a new front in the war. Second, it is probably the first successful al-Qaida attack on Israel. (The Palestinian Popular Committees, a Gaza-based al-Qaida affiliate is the prime suspect.)
A group of up to 20 terrorists from the Gaza Strip travelled through Egypt using vehicles, then went through the Egyptian border area without any apparent difficulty. Approaching the Egypt-Israel border they fired at a regularly scheduled public bus and cars on highway 12 — a road between Beersheva and Eilat, then entered Israeli territory. Their armaments included mortars and an RPG, as well as handguns. Soldiers engaged the terrorists in a firefight. Several soldiers were wounded; seven terrorists were killed.
According to several eyewitnesses, the attackers were wearing Egyptian army uniforms, a detail which if true is going to be a major issue. Stolen or sold or provided by low-level sympathizers in the Egyptian army? And the site of the attack was near an Egyptian army outpost which — so far as we know now –didn’t do anything about it. One eyewitness said a terrorist was firing from an Egyptian army position. Again, these details will have to be checked by an investigation.
An explosive device, like the ones used in Iraq, was laid to ambush arriving Israeli troops. This is a very sophisticated and complex operation. Seven Israelis were killed: four people in one family whose car was attacked — including two children, aged four and six — and three soldiers riding on a public bus. At least 30 were wounded. For more than 30 years the Egyptian government ensured peace along the desolate border between the two countries. In the post-Mubarak phase – as I warned back in February – the successor regime is not so committed to the Egypt-Israel peace.
What I pointed out then still applies:
“There are many steps the Egyptian government could take [regarding Israel]: letting weapons flow and terrorists walk across the Egypt-Gaza border; not trying too hard to stop terrorists from crossing the Egypt-Israel border; not providing proper protection to Israeli citizens travelling in Egypt or to the Israeli embassy; recalling Egyptian diplomats from Israel; stepping up hostile and official anti-Israel incitement; and so on….
“Another problem is border security. Again, we are told that it is in the interest of Egypt, especially the army, to avoid having terrorists cross the border into Israel. Yet similar logic has often proven mistaken in previous, similar cases. With junior officers and soldiers sympathizing with Islamism or radical nationalism, the orders of the generals back in Cairo might not be followed with a high degree of discipline. There are already reports of al-Qaida planning to infiltrate into the Sinai to launch cross-border attacks.”
Military discipline has slackened and terrorist groups are increasingly operating in the Sinai Peninsula. The natural gas pipeline to Israel is bombed every time it is put back into operation. A current Egyptian operation is intended to clear out terrorists affiliated with al-Qaida, from north Sinai.
The initial phase was marked by virtually free smuggling of arms, weapons, and money into the Gaza Strip for the Hamas regime there. The Mubarak government, though its efforts were imperfect, had kept the flow of munitions limited, making it harder for Hamas to renew full-scale warfare against Israel. Now, a new conflict could break out any time as Hamas is better-armed and more confident. The old Egyptian government looked at Hamas as a threat; the forthcoming Egyptian government will look at Hamas as an ally.
But while the media will no doubt attribute this attack to al-Qaida groups — and that might be accurate — this is far from the only problem. Hamas would no doubt cooperate with cross-border attacks on Israel from Egypt, as would the powerful Muslim Brotherhood which might well provide 30 to 40 percent of the members in the next parliament.
One should also remember the old strategy of the PLO in the late 1960s and in the 1970s: create waves of attacks on Israel’s borders, provoking Israeli retaliation and mass enthusiasm for war with Israel; then push Arab states into the war for what is hoped to be a full-scale showdown.
Have no doubt: This is not just an isolated incident but the opening of a new phase. It will get worse. At a minimum, Israel will have to devote a lot more of its limited resources to guarding the Egypt-Israel border. An important question is how decisively will the Egyptian military react and how supportive of the attack will be Egyptian public opinion.
Given U.S. policy, nothing can be expected from Washington except words of dismay. The Egyptian regime will assure everyone that it is committed to the peace treaty and will take strong action. But what will happen when the military hands over power to a parliament with an Islamist/far-left majority in a few months? Anyone want to hand over Israel’s West Bank border to sovereign Palestinian control?
Yes, we’ve been following the predictable for some time. Over at Totten’s, many speculated exactly what would happen in the Sinai during the post Mubarak vacuum. I suspect that the IRI has an arm here as Egypt chased around Hizb’Allah not too long ago. (Interesting Imad Mugniyah’s brother in law has been indicted in the STL)
And note the weapons. The Suez will ultimately come into play. So does Israel, Obama or Egypt block the next convoy by Iran? The new subs Iran is building are designed for secret cargo deliveries and special ops.
So is this AQ, Hamas, Hizb’Allah or IRI? Are they working together? http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4110634,00.html
We all know Hizb’Allah has plans for infiltration including setting fires as a terror tactic.
Note: Turkey says nothing about the attacks near the Sinai and Gaza as it attacks the PPK in Iraq. Iraq is critical for Iran to supply Assad via air craft flying from Iran to Latikia. hxxp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/19/world/europe/19turkey.html
Not sure if the NYT has a grip on the power play between Iran and Turkey. Several experts suggest a new “relationship” between Iran and the Kurds in response to Turkey’s words against Assad.
That was a highly interesting post — thanks!
The only dismay you will hear from Clinton or Obama is when Israel retaliates and then he will blame it on Bush.
Every piece of land Israel has conquered then abandoned in return for “peace” has been turned into a terrorist cesspit used to attack Israelis.
When will you wake up and stop giving land for “peace” already?
The only purpose a Palestinian state will serve, will be as a base to launch the final attack against Israel.
Peace treaties with Arabs, could anything be more stupid that that?
The idea of giving the Sinai to Egypt was a major blunder. Every withdrawal has been a blunder. Every concession has been blunder.
How many examples do we need?
I went to the market this morning, I passed the hospital on my way. The streets are all blocked off, there are police everywhere. The hospital is small, it is overwhelmed by so many injured. Helicopters pass over-head.
I take the bus to Beersheva once a month to visit my sister. A few days ago, a missile was shot at Beersheva by those homicidal Arabs in Gaza. Now, I have to worry about taking a bus. You can’t imagine how angry I am – I think we should flatten Gaza, just bomb the shit out of them & I don’t give a damn about ”collateral damge” either.
Enough is enough.
Is the mayor of Eilat still going ahead with his statue/commemoration of Mecca in the town, or did he get his head blown off?
Like most Israeli politicians, especially at the municipal level, our mayor is a corrupt ineffectual moron. You know, just like America or Europe.
But I never heard of any statue of Mecca (how do you make a statue of Mecca?)
Of course, if one of his cousins or a crony was in the statue business, then it wouldn’t surprise me. Usually, though, he is busy having flowers planted or fixing the same streets over & over again.
As I recall, the statue or sculpture is to commemorate the *pilgrimage* to Mecca that used to pass through the local. That, of course, was before there was an Israel blocking the way. I too don’t understand what message the city is trying to convey.
As for giving (not giving BACK, by the way) the Sinai to Egypt TWICE for absolutely nothing in return, taking it from those black-cube worshippers once again and incorporating it permanently into Israeli territory might be something Israel’s leaders should seriously consider if the wave of attacks increases.
Good on you for stating the only solution available to the unfortunate occupants of the sovereign State of Israel.
I agree. Do what needs to be done for the safety of Israel.
I feel for you Terry, I really do. I lived in Rehovot for a year, so I’m not unfamiliar with the Middle and Southern region.
The Defense Minister promised a harsh response thereby forewarning Hamas leadership to run and hide. He keeps selling us and the enemy his same timid,weak lie.
Barak’s idea of harsh is sending more undeserved aid to Hamas.
When he goes after Jewish settlers ,they don’t get any prior warnings.
In July Defense Minister Ehud Barak made his summer pilgrimage to Washington.
Not long after his return he implemented a number of goodwill gestures to the people of Hamastan,Gaza.
This was Hamas’ way of saying thank you to the lap dog leadership of Israel who serve failed foreign interests instead of Israel.
This week the IDF is seriously considering allowing more weapons into Judea and Samaria for the Fatah Terrorist Army.
The problem is not Hamas,Fatah or Hezbollah but the present crop of quisling ,appeasement and surrender driven leadership who in the weakness aid and encourage the enemy.
Hamas could have been taken care of long ago but the concept of victory has been lost to the agents of a foreign power who take their orders from Washington.
ehud barak as pm took orders from clinton irrumator personally
Maybe this isn’t a terrorist attack at all. They were wearing Egyptian Army uniforms and attacking without the interference of the Egyptian Army. How about this being a case of the Nation of Egypt declaring war on Israel and then attacking it? What else do you call it? An accident? This reminds me of the Mumbai attacks where Pakistan blatantly attacks India and then…well…nothing happens. I think Pearl Harbor just happened and nobody noticed.
The West Bank arabs are a group of nomads who wandered into Israeli land with the Muslim conquest in 700 AD. The Arabs in the WEst Bank should be moved to Jordan and the Arabs in Gaza should be moved to Egypt. This is all Israeli land from 4000 years ago. The Israelis took back their land in 1967 when attacked from all sides by the Arabs. Israel needs secure borders. It has to build fences on the Sinai side and fences on the Jordanian side, fences on the Lebanon side. Israel must protect its people from the murderers and terrorists who know no bounds of decency. All they know is to pray 5 times a day and hope to be killed so they can have 72 virgins. They are the scum of the earthy.
Unfortunately, the “Arab Spring” has done nothing to diminish the hatred and aggression innate to Islam against the other. Caring for their families, growing their economies, pales to “kill the Jews”, the one unifying factor that keeps them distracted from achieving anything else in life. There is no peace for anyone who lives near Moslem people as evidenced everywhere in the world.
Egypt cannot feed its people. It cannot borrow enough money to import food, and has no source of earnings. It has allowed various Islamist groups to scare off the remaining tourists, and realistically will have nothing but starvation for the next ten years or so. It has huge masses of ill educated young men who want a better life and have no prospect in what amounts to a failed state and a failed people. If you had the most enlightened philosopher king ruling Egypt, the Islamism, anti-technology, anti-modernity, dysfunctional people would be the same.
So expect open War sooner or later with Israel. No one in the ME fears Israel, all think that the nation can be destroyed, not just beaten. Israel lost fairly big against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and that woke up its enemies. Obama and Dems would welcome Israel’s destruction, most of the Democratic Party is entirely hostile to Israel (Blacks, Hispanics, Leftists, Activists, and so on). Egypt will gamble it can win, fairly decisively, by mass attacks against what they view as a weak, divided, and without a protector (America) Israel.
Israel’s military is not very good any more, the Air Force has outdated planes, the tanks were easy pickings by dug in Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, Hezbollah severely damaged a frigate, there is not much margin in terms of territory or munitions (and zero chance of resupply) and no one is convinced that Israel would actually use its nukes (which it probably would not). Meanwhile Israel itself is riven by huge protests over spiraling food, land, energy, and other costs. My best guess is a surprise attack over the Sinai. I would not bet that Israel could beat such an attack back — Syria and Jordan will of course join in as they did last time. It would effectively end Syria’s uprising, war against Israel.
Dear Whiskey, what kind of whiskey are you drinking? I wouldn’t dismiss the Israeli army quite so soon. Remember that you only hear part of the story. We Israelis – we know a bit more. So yes we didn’t perform as well in the Second Lebanon war as we should have, but it was also not nearly as bad as has been reported. There are reasons to let the Hezbollah tell their lies.
In other words I wouldn’t hold your breath while you are waiting for us to be defeated.
@whiskey,
Whereas I do agree over egypt, I would be far more cautious about “weakened” Tsahal abilities …..
Agree. Most of Israel’s problems relate to leadership – primarily, the one that cares what the EU and the current US leadership think. The military/security leadership is still rife with leftist sympathies, though that’s slowly changing as the Religious Zionist elements rise up through the ranks.
Hezbullah saw what the IDF was capable of when the Air Force destroyed most of their medium and long-range missiles within the first hour or so – a true WTF moment. So too did Hamas in 2008 as the IDF took out some 700 fighters (by Hamas own admission) while taking few casualties itself. It was only the leadership, too concerned about spoiling Obama’s inauguration, that forced the military to wind it down. The image of DM Barak negotiating with the French over a ceasefire in the *first week* of fighting has never left me.
The only difference between the Islamic terror groups is that they use different names in order to hide behind a cloud of deniability. It makes no difference as their goal is the same. They must a all be destroyed.
The political attack on Israel scheduled for September is obviously scheduled as a ” celebration ” of the attack on America ten years ago on Sept.11th and should be portrayed as such.
I do not belive that the chances of an all out Arab Israeli war breaking out are very great, even if Israel should make a really serious punitive raid into Gaza.
Egypt is still in political and security turmoil, Syria is in real chaos, Jordan is too weak, Libya and the Magreb are either in a civil war or political chaos, Hizballa is watching and waiting on the outcome in Syria, and there is no sign of any group of Arab states uniting to confront Israel militarily. And no single Arab state is any military condition to wage a war against Israel.
True the recent Palestinian terror attacks near show a degree of training, committment, equipment, coordination and organization not usually associated with Arab terrorism, but the IDF responded very effectively and very quickly, as did the Israeli medical services.
The IDF and the Israeli government can contain this situation and inflict serious damage on the terrorist groups in Gaza without upsetting the region’s relative stability and that is probably what is going to happen.
Also, the American and European governments are almost certainly at this moment doing everything they can diplomatically and politically to pressure the Hamas and it’s PA partner to quash this violence immediately as well as to convince Israel to take it easy in it’s military responses.
This is partly because the last thing the US and Europe want is even more Middle East instability, but also because the last thing the US and European financial markets need is even more Middle East uncertainty.
Thus this latest Palestinian terror atrocity will probably blow over far too soon and unfortunately lead to other and worse Palestinian terrorist attacks on innocent Israeli men, women, and children.
‘I do not belive that the chances of an all out Arab Israeli war breaking out are very great’
The problem is that Muslims don’t think like you.
They see weakness and always a timid response from the soft and creamy cottage cheese Jews and this encourages them to go for broke.
What have they got to lose ?
It’s win win for the death cult who take 72 virgins over a broken economy any day.
the American and European governments’ “doing everything they can” to pressure Hamas and the PA to stop their violence against Israel amounts to giving them tons of money to finance their violence against Israel.
Meanwhile, they attempt to “convince” Israel to go easy on its military responses to all the Arab violence they finance, and so encourage, by relentlessly pressuring the Jewish state to commit national suicide.
And Louis Farrakan’s, Rashid Khalidi’s, William Ayers’ and Jeremiah Wright’s little pet, Obama, will not, repeat, NOT, veto the eventual UN Security Council vote to establish a Palestinian state, just wait and see.
The appropriate USG policy is, first, to cut off all USG aid to the Middle East, period; and, second, to publicly announce that we acknowledge Israel’s right “under worldwide principles of international law” to defend itself by any means necessary in order to stop the attacks, including annexing the Sinai (again) and moving deeper into Egypt until the attacks on Israeli territory stop.
Under standard rules of international law, I look forward to seeing the Israeli flag flying in Alexandria and Cairo, and all Egypt east of the Nile occupied by Israel, placed under martial law, and with all civilians expelled uless they pass security checks.
No Marcel, the Arabs do think like me, they know that any military action on their part against Israel will bring them death and destruction the likes of which they can only imagine in their worst nightmares.
By the way, where have you been hiding Marcel, I have sort of missed your misinformed and badly thought out commentary.
Hey, you guys, google Shabatai Zvi and see what’s what with the Israeli Sabateans.
Don’t you read Barry Chamish?
Mark Twain said
If you don’t read the newspapers, you are UNinformed.
If you do read the newspapers, you are MISinformed.
How can anyone capable of studying the aggressive expansion of Islam through its 1350+ year history defend its actions? The accepted disrespect for truth and honor by any definition other than those of its inbred leaders condemn its existence to every method of eternal deception in its constitution of expansion by intimidation.
The highly edited fiction from Caliphate authors combined with names stolen from biblical history comprise its holy book’s unquestionable tenets. The one interpretation of seven that were all burned promises both excuse for murder and reward for death involved in jehad mentioned 41 times in the text.
Any survival strategy by democracies encompassing any degree of capitulation only leads to future encounters spaced with jehad deaths for feeding the inbred minds. No historical era of relief has been recorded other than by either resistance providing for their dishonorable burials and or complete family genocide.
Expect no change as long those at the top call the shots and those at the bottom pay the price. If this sounds familiar except for the methods used, take count of
the invasion on the hill and keep in mind that their effect becomes undeniable at 5% saturation and unbeatable until called what it is.
Sometimes it is SO difficult to know what’s going on in the middle east! Since I have family there I’m always eager to hear the arab news !
I MISS ISRAEL OF 1947/48, ISRAEL OF 1956, ISRAEL OF 1967, ISRAEL OF THE SUEZ CANAL ATTRITION WAR, ISRAEL OF 1973, THE ISRAEL OF ENTEBEE WERE THOUSANDS OF MILES WERE FLOWN TO LIBERATE THE HOSTAGES AND IN OUR TIME A SINGLE HOSTAGE, NAOMAN SCHALIT, IMPRISONED A FEW MILES INSIDE GAZA, CAN’T BE RESCUED?. WE HAD THE LEBANNON INVASION A TOTAL FAILURE AS ONE OF THE STRONGEST MILITARY FORCES IN THE WORLD FAILED TO DISLODGE AND ELIMINATE 5000/6000 COMMON CRIMINALS AND THE GOVERNMENT COULDN’T WAIT TO GET OUT. ISRAEL ALLOWED THE EMERGENCE AND CONSOLIDATION OF A TERRORIST BASE IN GAZA, ABSORBED THOUSANDS OF ROCKETS AND WHEN IT FINALLY TOOK ACTION THE GOVERNMENT COULDN’T WAIT TO GET OUT WITHOUT HAVING REACHED ITS MINIMUM OBJECTIVE THAT WAS THE DISMANTLING OF THE TERRORIST ENTITY AND THE ELIMINATION OF ITS LEADERS. LAST WEEK WITHOUT ANY INTERFERENCE THE TERRORISTS PENETRATED ISRAEL AND KILLED MANY ISRAELIS. THE RESPONSE? THREE CRIMINALS WERE KILLED IN GAZA, EMPTY LOTS AND BUILDINGS AS WELL AS EMPTY TUNNELS WERE BOMBED AND ONE CRIMINAL RIDING A MOTORCYCLE WAS ALSO KILLED. BIBI SAID THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING OF OUR RESPONSE AND THE CHORUS OF “THEY WILL PAY A HEAVY PRICE, ETC. WAS HEARD. IS THIS THE WAY TO STRIKE TERROR IN THE HEARTS OF THE TERRORISTS? IT IS TRUE THE REPORT THAT EGYPT VETOED THE ELIMINATION OF THE HEAD OF THE TERRORIST ENTITY IN GAZA? IS EGYPT DICTATING NOW THE ANTI-TERRORIST POLICY, IF ANY, OF ISRAEL? THE TERRORISTS ARE LAUGHING AT ISRAEL.
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