By Barry Rubin
Asmaa Mahfouz, the April 6 Youth Movement leader who said she began the Egyptian revolution with a tweet, has been arrested, charged with inciting violence against the military and insulting the armed forces, and will be tried by a military court. This is, of course, the kind of irony that makes a great article.
Personally, I still believe that the military will be glad when it hands back power to civilians and can return to its real business: making money for the officers.
But what did Mahfouz say that got her arrested? Here it is:
“If the judiciary doesn’t give us our rights, nobody should be surprised if militant groups appear and conduct a series of assassinations because there is no law and there is no judiciary,”
Now, while free speech is a great thing, I’m not surprised that the armed forces were unhappy. That would qualify in Norway as incitement to terrorism. And since the military is running things, the implication is that it would be proper for “militant groups” to assassinate military officers.
What kind of militant groups might that be? Radical environmentalists? No, obviously Islamists. Of course, Mahfouz could say with some real justification that she isn’t advocating terrorism but warning that things better change or there will be terrorism.
No matter what the military does, however, there will be terrorism. Already, one might say it is happening to Coptic Christians. Even CNN found a terrorist group already operating and attacking police stations. The idea that the proper policy will ensure social peace is rather difficult in a country like Egypt where one-third of the voters who pick a serious party to support back the Muslim Brotherhood while another one-eighth support far left-wing Marxist-nationalist parties.
If an iconic “moderate” and “democracy advocate” like Mahfouz–indeed the virtual mother of the “democratic revolution–can be so quick to advocate bloodshed that tells you something, doesn’t it?








Why does this account of the situation in Egypt differ so much from the almost hopeful sense one gets from reading Michael J. Totten’s offering?
I am a regular reader at Michael Totten’s. I don’t know where you get the idea of a hopeful sense of where Egypt is going. It is true there ARE some liberal youth in Egypt and the the US, KSA and Dubai have a bit of leverage, but Michael doesn’t sound so hopeful unless Iran and Syria fall and a new mood develops.
Yes, Egyptian troops(with Israel approval) have gone to battle against AQ in Sinai. The Muslim Brotherhood comes out against Assad. These are however the necessities of reality. Perhaps the only hope Egypt has…….
http://pajamasmedia.com/michaeltotten/2011/08/15/turkey-threatens-assad-again/#comment-39337
I would not say Michael is particularly hopeful these days. Just because he has interviewed “Liberals” in the ME and MENA doesn’t mean these people hold the real power. The key at the moment is unseating Assad who now is using Iranian snipers to kill Syrian civilians…..
The outcome here will greatly effect the course of Egypt as the Suez is critical to Iranian designs on Latikia and Syria.