By Barry Rubin
As I always say, the most important stories about the Middle East–that really explain the region–are right there on the surface but are nonetheless neglected. Here’s one: there has not been a single, not a single, demonstration in Egypt against political Islamism.
Think about it. There is a powerful Muslim Brotherhood, openly seeking state power and Egypt’s fundamental transformation into an Islamist state. Then there are the Salafists–a new label applied to even more radical Islamist groups–that were in the past simply called by the name of the individual organization. There used to be two major ones. Why the use of “Salafist” now? Because there are too many to count.
And yet, despite this threat, not only to Egypt as a whole but daily life, there has been no organization of a demonstration, or a public campaign, or a Facebook campaign against the factor likely to produce a new dictatorship. True, the Christian Copts are defending their own rights, but that isn’t the same thing. Indeed, events only further underline that Muslims won’t speak out in any numbers against Islamism. Individual Muslims may courageously defend Christian rights publicly, but they are few and scattered.
Why is it that there is no anti-Islamist movement in Egypt? There are three reasons:
1. Fear and intimidation.
2. The eagerness of even liberal, moderate reformers to ally with the Brotherhood. Egypt is the only country in the Arab world (there are some exceptions, like the Syrian Brotherhood’s membership in the opposition coalition, but they are far more limited) where the reformers saw no problem to viewing the Brotherhood as allies against the existing regime. The April 6 Youth Movement, the “Facebook kids,” were closely cooperating with the Brotherhood. Muhammad ElBaradei was willing to be their poodle until the two sides quarreled. The Wafd Party is in partnership with the Brotherhood as are many other elements.
3. The belief that the Brotherhood will protect people from the Salafists. Talk about wishful thinking! Of course, there is an element of truth here. The Brotherhood might reduce the level of violence but that’s only because it believes that victory can be achieved without it and they are also willling to Islamize the country more slowly. Still, I’ll bet that Brotherhood members aren’t going to put up their fists to defend Christians, secularists, or women who don’t toe the line from Salafist attack.
What is happening is that some spray paint a picture of a cross and crescent labelled “almaniya” (secularism) which Islamists overspray with the slogan “Islamiya.” (Islamic country). But we have no idea, of course, how many of the spraypainters are Muslims.
In contrast, Lebanon, Algeria, Morocco, Iraq, Tunisia, Syria, and (non-Arab) Turkey and Iran there are powerful anti-Islamist sentiments in the oppositions.
Let’s compare Egypt with Tunisia, the Arabic-speaking country where European intellectual-cultural influence and moderate Islam has been proportionately most powerful. A Tunis movie theatre showed the daring anti-Islamist film “No God, No Master” by the Tunisian-French director Nadia El-Fani.
Even in relatively moderate, relatively secularist Tunis, Islamists attacked the theatre and the audience members. To understand the implications of having such “norms” in a society, consider how viable democracy would be if a mob in Texas or New York rioted at a movie theatre, wrecked it, and beat up audience members watching a film that they didn’t like. Afterward, nobody was arrested and the group responsible not only faced relatively little criticism but was likely to win lots of votes in the next election.
Remember that the probem in the Muslim-majority world isn’t only the strength of the Islamists but the weakness of the organized opposition to them.
At least, in Tunisia, one thousand people demonstrated against religious violence and radical Islamism, carrying banners that said “Free Tunisia, extremism out” and “Religious freedom, freedom of thought.”
The elections in Egypt set for September will be followed by those in Tunisia scheduled for October. The Ennahda Party, which is radical Islamist, is expected to do well though not to win. But we will see if Tunisia is going to have an October revolution or could emerge as a (temporarily? stable?) democratic state.
While fear may be a small factor, the overriding one attributed to the silence against Islamic rule is the most obvious one – that they mostly agree on Islamism and its place in their lives.
True, the younger generation are looking towards economic gains.However, they would be mostly fine with Islamic rule, just as long as their families are fed, clothed and educated.This is why Hamas rode to power on a wave of popular support.It is also why elections in the Muslim world lead to Islamic rule.Democracy in the Middle East ain’t all that it is cracked up to be, unless one is ready to live with the worldwide blow back of Islamic rulers.
This is a fact that is glossed over, again and again.
BBarry Rubin ignores the fact even in Tunisia, secularists hate Israel even more than the Islamists! I don’t see any indication of moderation in the Middle East, even in countries that are strongly anti-Islamist. Just the exact opposite.
The Arabs have experimented with pan-Arab nationalism and with repressive autocracies. They are by no means ready to embrace Western-style democracy. The mext totalitarian fashion a lot of them find attractive is Islamism. Freedom to the Arabs has a different meaning than it does for Westerners and Israeli Jews. This must be kept in mind when looking at the upheavals now changing the face of the Arab Middle East.
#1 Adina.
I have to disagree with you, at least partially.
There is a great deal of intimidation re: Islam in Muslim countries. There is enormous social pressure, family pressure, the fear of ostracism (or much worse). The pressure to conform is very great in Arab countries. People are afraid to speak freely. And, Arabs gossip, it’s a national past-time. Anything you say or do will end up as the subject of conversation among many, becoming distorted & exagerated in the process.
And, let’s not forget the hypocrisy factor – many verbally support the most extreme Islamic ideas then do what they want, such as drink alcohol, for example or smoke during Ramadan.
On the other side of it, you’re right. Islam is so much a part of their identity that they barely exist as individuals. Many hold contradictory view-points simultaneously, talking about ”democracy & freedom” & then praising Islam as the ”perfect” religion.
1400 hundred years ago a mob of sword wielding, fanatical, barbarians rode out of the desert and conquered half the known world. And that is always the model Islam falls back on whenever other models fail. Mindless bloody Fanaticism. Why are we surprised. We’ve seen it over and over again, during Muslim history. That was their “Golden Age”. Forcing the rest of the world to support their stupidity. Their religious and social model demands it. THE answer to any problems within the Islamic world is to become ever more fanatical, grab their swords, and leap onto their horses. I believe it will continue to be the model until we finally destroy them. They see the word as if it was still the 7th century, when in reality, even the smallest of Western countries has the resources to go nuclear almost within hours. Do you think it would take – let’s say – the Dutch or the Swedes as long as Iran to produce a nuclear weapon? Iran talks as if the production of one nuclear weapon will make them equal to Israel – which has hundreds and the means to deliver them. I think that, despite our best efforts, the Muslim world will fall to the Islamists – even Iraq and Afghanistan. I think we should get out of the Arab world and bring our troops and resources home. Husband our resources so that when push finally comes to shove, we can “take care” of the problem, once and for all.