By Barry Rubin
In Damascus, a mob organized by the Asad regime attacked the U.S. and French embassies. The French guards fired into the air, wounding two, and the demonstrators stopped. Three French embassy workers were injured. At the U.S. embassy while the U.S.-employed Syrian guards fired teargas, the Marines didn’t fire and the mob surged into the embassy breaking windows and wrecking at least part of the building for two and a half hours as Syrian security forces stood by.
Those are the basic facts. The question is: what does this mean and what will the Obama Administration do about it.
What this tells us about Syria’s government
Syria, unlike Mubarak’s Egypt, is a real totalitarian regime. The rulers believe, and experience has taught them, that violence and intimidation always win. It is the kind of government that President Barack Obama and the well-meaning peace processers and those holding university degrees in conflict resolution can’t understand. It is Saddam Hussein’s Iraq without any more-human face.
This is a regime that sponsors terrorism to kill Americans in Iraq. It has sponsored terrorism against Israel for 50 years and continues to do so. It has assassinated political leaders, journalists, and judges in Lebanon. A few blocks away from where visiting U.S. officials a few months ago were tweeting about the wonderful coffee in cafes, dissidents were being tortured.
And so let’s reconsider the following exchange:
Question: “Aren’t you concerned that your outstretched hand has been interpreted by extremists, especially [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad, [Hizballah leader] Nasrallah, [Hamas leader] Meshal, as weakness?”
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, it’s not clear to me why my outstretched hand would be interpreted as weakness.
And yet this is precisely what’s happened. The previous Bush Administration took a hard line on Syria with sanctions and other pressures. That didn’t work, said the Obama team, so we’re going to try a little tenderness. For 2.5 years it let Syria get away with murder. Senator John Kerry and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi attested to the reformist and moderate nature of this murderous regime. The White House did everything possible to reduce sanctions against Syria.
But that didn’t work. The two sides were playing entirely different games. The idea that the United States had the slightest chance of splitting Syria from its Iranian patron was always absurd but the media and academia largely censored out the multiple, persuasive arguments on that point.
Only a few days ago, the Syrian ambassador was called into the State Department and told that the United States knew Syrian agents were filming demonstrations in America held by anti-Asad Syrian students and Syrian-Americans. Can anyone doubt that the next step was to intimidate through punishing their relatives back home?
Soon reporters will be writing that there must be a split in the regime: after all, why do some officials talk of democracy and compromise while others order shooting and torture? That’s no contradiction; that’s how this regime works. It believes that force, threats, and intimidation will always work. Other methods are useful to stall for time or fool the credulous and get concessions from them.
What Will the Obama Administration Do?
It should immediately drop the policy it has been following, lose its illusions, and return to a tough stance. A tough stance will not change the Syrian regime’s mind but it might help change the Syrian regime. Moreover, the soft policy makes things even worse.
The attack on the embassy was a response to very mild U.S. criticisms and the visit of the U.S. ambassador to Hama. A Western-style regime, even a dictatorship, would say: Great! The Americans are leaving us alone except for a few gestures and meaningless statements. Let’s play along with them.
But this is the Middle East and the Syrian regime demands of the United States and France what it also demands from its own people: total support or they get bludgeoned into submission.
Unfortunately, the Obama Administration is likely to do nothing and learn nothing. There will be harsh words and much stamping on the floor. But recognize that the Syrian regime is an enemy and act accordingly (and I am NOT repeat NOT talking about military responses)? Not going to happen.
Future of Syria
The starting point is that we should admit that nobody knows what will happen. The revolution isn’t going away easily. Watch this video to understand that point.
But neither is the regime. The evidence shows that the government, and the Alawite elite behind it, believes that they must win or die.
I would predict:
Chance of the regime making reforms (what the Obama Administration has predicted until now): 0 percent.
Chance of the regime splitting near the top: 10 percent.
Chance of non-Alawite, non-elite units of the army defecting and beginning a civil war: 25 percent.
Chance of a lot of people being killed: 100 percent.
Would a revolution bring to power an Islamist regime? We cannot know for sure. I would emphasize that the chances are lower than in Egypt. Other organized political forces exist. Forty percent of the country is not Sunni Arab Muslim and would oppose an Islamist regime. The figure in Egypt is 10 percent, and they are all Christians who have absolutely no political influence.
I would also add that this is only the beginning. Whether U.S. policy opposes or supports existing regimes there is going to be an upsurge of anti-Americanism, a point that those who say the only problem is bad U.S. policies in the past cannot explain. In Egypt, where the Obama Administration enthusiastically backed a revolution, it is already building.
But let’s conclude for the moment with a comparison between the Middle East according to Barack Obama and that according to Syrian President Bashar al-Asad:
Obama: “Well, it’s not clear to me why my outstretched hand would be interpreted as weakness.”
Asad: “It’s better to be feared than to be liked.”
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and a featured columnist for PajamasMedia at http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org.
“…what will the Obama Administration do about it.”
Not much is my guess. That’s why Assad felt he could get away with it.
Obama will conclude that the Syrian forces require more monetary aid monies from U.S. taxpayers, and will promise Assad that the check is in the mail.
Well what did you expect? The US Ambassador gets involved with rebels in Hama at a time when Syria is in a desperate turmoil. This is not how diplomat behave interfering in internal conflict of any country. Despicable Assad responded in kind to Obama’s stupid Ambassador.
Obama is way above his head and he is playing with fire in the Middle east. In fact I regard Obama, beside of his being an anti- Semite he is the perfect Apprentice Sorcerer regarding the whole Middle East.
I will vote for anyone who runs against anti- Semite Obama.
Interesting what the American ambasador was doing in Hama. Isn’t it the Muslim Brotherhood’s stronghold?
Appeasement is like feeding a crocodile hoping it will eat you last. Winston Ch
That is what we’re doing with the Brotherhood. If Israel goes, who do you see next on the have to hate list, that the entire Mid East uses to thrive on? Fear and hate is used to be mans biggest controllers. Beats out love and compassion hands down.
Obama will do nothing, except maybe do a little dance, about Syria’s trashing the US embassy. He’s happy as a lark over the incident. The US is getting just exactly what it deserves. As far as he’s concerned, it’s a relief that no one of the mob that caused the damage was injured or anything. Thankfully, they all got away scot free, safe and sound. That’s all that matters. You know, with those trigger-happy, loyal U. S. Marines, anything can happen, but this time they let the enemy mob go on a rampage inside the U. S. embassy without hindrance or interference of any kind whatsoever, just like Obama ordered. Otherwise he’d have had them brought up on charges in a court-martial, jailed, and then drummed out of the service.
“It’s better to be feared than to be liked.”
That was Rumsfeld’s motto, not Assad’s. Indeed it was so much liked by the neo-con crowd, they made it their own. They thought that it is wimpy to engage your enemy diplomatically lest it be taken as a sign of weakness. So for them to liberate Iraq they thought that it was best to have US air force drop hundreds of thousands tons of ammunition on the heads of Iraqi people. So in their shock and awe Iraqi people instantly turn democrat and be liberated for good.
Obviously, Rubin thinks Assad is a neo-con in disguise. Maybe he is a Bush democrat as well. It is not funny.
with what’s-his-name at the helm the motto is “let ‘em crap all over you, and then go kiss their ass”
I don’t know what can be done with the Syrians and their regime. They are
truculant. The Israelis wiped out their nuclear reactors at one time. Maybe
they could handle these people. Obama and administration certainly doesn’t.
Whether U.S. policy opposes or supports existing regimes there is going to be an upsurge of anti-Americanism, a point that those who say the only problem is bad U.S. policies in the past cannot explain.
Well, you know what their explanation will be (hint: it has 6 letters, it beings with an I and ends with an L, and it’s the only country on earth that’s really controlled by Jews).
In the olden days, when two people met, they would shake hands to show to each other that they don’t have a hidden knife in their hands. That is a hand shake is a way of verification of well intent. So, what is wrong with that? Maybe the guy with clenched fist has a knife, or maybe not. Best way to figure that out is to extend your hand!
Of course you should start be extending your hand, but if your extended hand meets a clenched fist I’m not sure you should wait for the knife to come out and cut your hand off. Either way, I think both the Iranian and Syrian regimes have already exposed their knives. I don’t know what else do you expect them to do. I mean what are your criteria for trusting or not trusting these regimes? Obviously the following isn’t enough for you to conclude the Syrian regime isn’t friendly:
- Conspiring with Hizaballah to assassinate Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri and other Lebanese personalities to maintain the Syrian-Iranina control over Lebanon.
- Supporting terrorism and attacks against American soldiers in Iraq.
- Helping to fund and arm Hizaballah against Israel (even though Israel has withdrawn from Lebanon, and did it on condition that Hizballah will be disarmed).
- Tightening its alliance with the Iranian regime rather than starting to get away from it.
- Not making any reforms, in spite of John Kerry’s and Hillary Clinton’s affirmation that Bashar al-Assad is a “reformer”.
- Killing unknown number of revolting Syrians.
- Filming Syrian demonstrators in the US to get back at their families back in Syria.
If that isn’t enough for you, what will be? What will convince you the Syrian regime doesn’t mean peace and friendship? If they fund attacks on American soldiers and on civilians in Iraq then the knife isn’t only exposed, but it’s already stuck in your flesh. What will it take for you to notice its existence?
direct those good questions to obama and see where you get, nowhere. he’s out to kill israel, and everybody knows it, not just you, or I, but hillary clinton, bill clinton, john kerry, joe biden, david axelrod, rahm emanuel, anthony weiner, dick schumer, and every last one of the whole damn rotten, stinking democratic party, including the jews in it, who all pretend they don’t know it.
Both Iran and Syria are hard cases of totalitarian regimes. It is hard to crack them open from outside. It would backfire and give legitimacy to the regimes as they rule by fear and not consent. So military confrontation is a losing strategy. The best way to confront them is to let them cook in their own juices. You should just make sure that trouble does not spill over.
already spilled over, inside the embassy, see charley @ 12
Nobody spoke of a military confrontation. Also Rubin repeatedly said he’s not talking about a military intervention. There’s a wide range of possibilities between denying there’s a problem and going to war. There are other forms of pressure, though I doubt anything will work since from Assad’s point of view he has no choice and he’s fighting for his survival, but perhaps more pressure can hasten his demise. Though I have to say we have absolutely no idea who and what might take his place. Today Iran is the most dangerous regional actor and Syria is allied with Iran, but if the Muslim Brotherhood will take over serveral countries we might see the Sunni variant of radical hostile regimes and the Sunnis are the majority in the Muslim World. There’s no telling where it will go. We’re playing with fire here.
Comment 7: Very interesting. Lets get rid of Israel, no, better yet, lets get rid of all Jews and there will be universal peace. OMG this is unbelievable.
Hey, I said it’s going to be “their” explanation. I know it is and I know it will. I know the leftists will push harder and harder to get rid of Israel. I’m an Israeli and I’ve seen their campaign grow bolder and uglier over the years. Everything bad in the Middle East, and above all the hatred for the US and the West, is and will continue to be blamed on Israel. We’ll need a miracle to survive this.
What will Obama do??? Declare that this situation makes it ALL THE MORE necessary, even imperative for Israel to give in to Palestinian and Syrian demands! Obama & Hillary don’t have a clue into the mentality of a ruthless tyrant. They don’t comprehend what the people of these countries are really feeling! They only have 1 tool to use and that is to go along with demonizing and destroying Israel.
have been out to get israel on their own account for a long time now
I especially enjoyed Rubin”s inclusion of “the conflict-resolution” military industrial complex. What a pity Roger Fisher from the Harvard Law School and his conflict-resolution machinery is not here to offer their services to Obama. While I was up there at the Russian Res. Ctr. someone said he was very vexed; he asked the R.R.C. to involve his units to solve USSr-USA disputes, but did not get far with this. Of what importance is REAL area expertise (USSR, Middle East etc.) as long as you have 6 steps to yes. These people do not understand me-to-the-last-bullet dictators like Assad ( or Ceausescu etc.). You have to put in a lot of time learning difficult languages, thinking your way into the mind of cultures whose logics are very different from yours, etc.
Much easier just to lean on Israel.
I was taught back in school, many years ago, that an embassy is considered as the country it represents. Would this mob have been unchallenged rushing the Government offices here? Are the Marines there to protect or not? They should have opened fire, to stop, at the level needed. Before being told not to protect it, the embassy should just be closed down. It shows no value in it being there.