By Barry Rubin
Let’s pretend we are living in a sane and normal era with a sane and normal U.S. government. In that context, read the following paragraph from the Wall Street Journal and then let’s think out loud about it.
“The top U.S. military officer accused Iran…of shipping new supplies of deadly weapons to its militia allies in Iraq, in what he described as Tehran’s bid to take credit for forcing American troops to go home….`Iran is very directly supporting extremist Shiite groups which are killing our troops,’ said Adm[iral] Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. `There is no question they are shipping high-tech weapons in there…that are killing our people. And the forensics prove that.’”
Let’s begin with an abstract approach. The government of Country A is sending weapons to forces attacking Country B. Country B is in fact pulling out of territory and doesn’t want a war. Nevertheless, Country A is escalating its aggression so it can claim the withdrawal as a great victory. Why? Because the government of Country A doesn’t want peace; it wants to destroy Country B and hates it so passionately that no conciliation is possible.
Wow, this is so familiar! Where else in the Middle East have I heard about this pattern?
Back to the Iraq case. What does the United States do about the fact that it has proof of a war being waged against it by Iran? I’m not proposing the United States go to war with Iran at all. That would be a mistake, no question about it. But how about a few time-tested activities like these:
–The United States stages some covert operations to discomfit Iran’s regime? Some economic sabotage, a few oil fields or factories have…problems. The message is: If you want this to stop, don’t attack us. You escalate; we escalate.
–The U.S. government tells all of its allies, trading partners, and anyone it can influence that sanctions against Iran of all types are going to go to the absolute maximum and that Washington will tolerate no breaches, including from China, Russia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
–The U.S. ambassador to the UN goes to the General Assembly (as Ambassador Adlai Stevenson did over the Cuban missile crisis) and presents the evidence of Iran’s terrorism in Iraq and aid to al-Qaida, demanding strong action.
–The U.S. government tells the Turkish regime to stop cooperating with Iran. Will the Turkish government get angry and claim that its sovereignty and dignity have been violated? Yep. And then, if the costs are high enough, it might back down in some material ways.
–The president of the United States goes on television and says, “My fellow Americans….” to lay out the case against Iran, including the “forensics.” He explains that even though America does not want a conflict that one is being forced on it by its enemies. And then he lists Iran’s allies in this anti-American effort: Syria, Hamas, and Hizballah. He will tell the American people what U.S. intelligence has known for years: that Iran is sheltering al-Qaida leaders and letting them use its territory as a safe haven from which to organize attacks against Americans.
–And in line with that presentation, the United States tells Israel that it supports stronger sanctions on the Gaza Strip; refuses to recognize or give aid to a Hizballah (Syria, Iran)-dominated government in Lebanon (which has just officially taken office); gives strong support to the Lebanese opposition; breaks relations with Syria and does everything possible in terms of sanctions against that government while supporting the democratic elements in the opposition.
I suspect that not one thing on this list will happen. The problem is with the specific government now in place in the White House, not the fact that it is a Democratic Party president or a supposedly liberal president. In the background is the dominant ideology nowadays in the United States which throws out the window all of the traditional attitudes and tools used by previous presidents–realpolitik, deterrence, power politics, supporting your friends, and punishing your enemies.
One might call it a combination of proud-to-be-weak, America-is-too-evil-to-be-a-world-leader, old-fashioned appeasement, and left-wing “neo-conservatism.”
A government that will not protect the soldiers it has sent into danger by acting against those who would kill them does not deserve to lead those troops. Admiral Mullen knows it (his statement above sounds like a plea for help from Congress and the American people) and so does the recently resigned Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and so does everyone who works at the Pentagon and serves in the U.S. armed forces. But they cannot speak publicly because they are serving. That’s the real “Don’t ask, don’t tell policy.”
Go back and read that paragraph about what Mullen said. Revolutionary Islamism, Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood, and others are at war with the United States. America needs a president who recognizes that fact and will do something about it.
Frankly I am a bit confused. It has always been US policy to let its soldiers and sailors be murdered by Iran. Look at Beirut, Khobar Towers, Colonel Higgins, assorted hijackings, murders, all committed against the US military and soldiers without retaliation.
As for Iraq, Obama comes from a culture that celebrates the fall of Viet-Nam as one of the great triumphs of the “people” over US imperialism. It is hard to believe that he does not hope for Iraq to fall to Iran, after a decent interval of course, as proof of his brilliance as opposed George Bush’s militaristic stupidity.
Barry Rubin is a voice of sanity among all the muddled media voices. I just cannot understand how Americans can read this statement by Admiral Mullen and the constructive solutions that Barry Rubin suggests and not become so upset that they start bombarding their congressmen for a clear response and decisive action.
Barry,
All good points, but Iran was doing the same thing when Bush was President and he did nothing either. He didn’t do any of the things you mentioned above. He let it happen just as Obama is. Were you criticizing him as well?
The man in the White House is NOT ignorant, NOT stupid, NOT incapable. He IS aware of what he is doing. His PLAN is the destruction of the United States of America and he is doing an efficient job. We’ve been warned, decades ago, that the destruction of America would come from within. We thought it would be communism. But it is here, it is happening and we fail to recognize the perpetrator. The man in the White House is evil incarnate. We are good people – we can’t bring ourselves to acknowledge evil. But if this nation is to survive we must wake up, awaken our citizens and FIGHT. The State department is complicit and has been so for many years. The Congress is our only hope and yet there are many without spine and gumption so don’t count on those. We can only count on ourselves – we stand alone. But we stood alone at Concord. Listen to those who have a message. Listen to those who the opposition Hates. They are hated because they are feared…join them, support THEM. Gd Bless America.
A rather complex dynamic is unfolding in the region. Despite the damning UN report on the Turkish investigation of the last Flotilla, several factors have pushed Turkey westward. Iran kills more per capita than anyone else as it advances missiles that can reach Istanbul, Assad is crumbling slowly and Cyprus is set to take the helm of the EU in 2012 http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700150466/Turkey-urges-Cyprus-peace-deal-by-early-2012.html
Cyprus has grown close to Israel.
The key to isolating Iran is moving Turkey, Greece, Cyprus Israel closer. There appears some sign of this. Egypt is also facing enormous issues beyond the domestic with Ethiopia and South Sudan just two problems to their South. Of course Qaddafi and terrorists in Sinai are also strategic considerations for Egypt’s generals as well as building naval concerns in the Red Sea.
In response to this bad news, Iran has predictably instigated trouble in Iraq. Even USA Today reports on Iran’s game with AQ. hxxp://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2011-07-09-iran-al-qaeda_n.htm
Their increased logistics with the Taliban brings them into direct conflict with US/NATO in Afghanistan and actions against the government of Pakistan. Perhaps Erdogan might want to lift the ban on Turkish soldiers refusing to fire upon “fellow Muslims”. Police officers in Ankara do it every week….
If Turkey can move West and Egypt follows suit, the disintegration of Assad and STL pressure on Hizb’Allah will further isolate Iran and minimize the fallout of a strike on their facilities. With some progress on the Palestinian issue including roles for Egypt and Turkey and KSM and the Gulf States pressing hard against Iranian hegemony, the table is set for a show down.
Neither the US/NATO, Israel or Iran are quite prepared for a showdown. So a shooting war based on Iran’s history of terrorism might be putting the cart before the horse…
American interests are spread thin from Sudanese guarded oil fields in Libya, to South Sudan, Yemen and Somalia, to Syria, Iraq Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and out to the Sea of China moving north to Japan and Korea.
Expect NK to act up sometime soon and new fears of Iranian proxies at work South of our own border.
Rand Group however, has recently issued a report warning the Pentagon to plan for war with Iran including scenarios with a nuclear Iran. It is critical we avoid slowing down the production of the very next generation military technology and hardware Pentagon planners will need to counter these emergent threats. It is this response now that will decide how the chips fall later.
Saddam, Qaddafi, Mubarak, Assad would be great to replace with more moderate Democratic figures. That hasn’t happen yet. A more pro-Western Turkey would be nice. As the Arab Springs stalls and Iran executes more per capita than anyone else, expect present leadership to think long and hard. At the present rate, conflict with Iran seems unavoidable and we must prepare the ground for the eventual blow-back……
Dr. Rubin –
In your RubinReports email for this article, reflecting upon Admiral Mullen’s excellent statement, you ask: “What does the Obama Administration do?” And you reply, “Nothing.”
But Obama has simply done none of the things you suggest he should be doing, that’s all. Instead, he has deliberately refused to do anything of the sort, and by that refusal, has knowingly chosen to aid and abet Iran’s designs.
So by doing “nothing” here, he is quite busy, actively engaged in working full-time against America’s interests.
For the benefit of Puzzled Outsider, who is unable to understand the acquiescence of Americans in the passivity of the Obama administration in the face of what Admiral Mullen has correctly called a shooting war, I believe I can be of some help.
What has happened in the United States (formerly Land Of The Free and Home Of The Brave) is that Americans have become tired of being top dog, and even of defending their liberty and material well-being. They do not want any more wars, and have forgotten that a good part of the world is dedicated to destroying the United States as an important power, let alone as a superpower. Americans assume that, stripped of their preeminent position in the world, they will continue to enjoy the kind of life (two cars in every garage, chicken in every pot) to which they have become accustomed. They will discover that this assumption is baseless, and many books will be written with titles beginning with “What Happened to…”. It has happened before, by the way, as you can learn by reading the history of the Roman Empire.
See teh attached talk by Tarek Fatah, memtioning double crossing of Canada & the US by Pakistan & Saudi “selling our soldeiers to the Taliban”
http://www.ideacityonline.com/talks/tarek-fatahs-talk-at-ideacity-2011/
JS is right, this sort of “news” surfacved now and then when Bush was president. If he did anything about it, other than talk, it must still be classified.
I ran has been very active in developing missiles with the capability of destroying manoevering ships with the goal of keeping our supercarrier fleet out of the Persian Gulf, and the Straits of Hormuz. If these developments are as successful as they think, it will be a major change in our stratejic capabilities, even under a President who would want to assert America’s interests.
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