By Barry Rubin
Palestinian Authority “president” Mahmoud Abbas is retiring and has called on Fatah to choose a replacement. Wonder who they’ll pick? Watch this space. I think I know and he makes Amr Moussa look like Megan McCain.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has suffered a heart attack. The Fatah leadership wants to get rid of him and is only held back by concern over the donors giving money. His days, too, are numbered.
President Obama’s argument is that Israel should make peace as fast as possible. But of course since the two “moderate” leaders aren’t going to be around very long, why make concessions to be pocketed by their successors who won’t implement these commitments and will definitely add even more demands.
Obama’s argument is that Israel is becoming delegitimized because there isn’t a peace agreement. But delegitimization by some is better than a very dangerous strategic situation. Moreover, it isn’t clear that more Israeli concessions and risks will reverse delegitimization. Experience has shown the opposite.
Obama’s second argument is that the strategic situation will get worse if Israel doesn’t make concessions, etc. In fact, precisely because the situation is getting worse means Israel doesn’t want to face a hostile Egyptian and Lebanese government, a stronger Iran, a less reliable America, etc., from a worse strategic situation. And that’s what will happen if Israel does what Obama wants.
The original mistake was made at Oslo. Had there been no accors, there would have been no intifadas and there would have been the metasizing cancer that is Palestinian Arab anti-Semitism; and that anti-Semiism would not have had a chance to grow out into the faux liberal “academic” community which is now infected by it. Unfortunately, the genies are out of their bottles, and who know what evil times lie ahead.
Mr. Rubin – I just read Netanyahu’s speech to AIPAC. It might be useful to people like me if you would analyze it the way you did Obama’s speech.
Dear Dr. Rubin,
I was fantasizing about the Middle East policy discussions that must have taken place prior to President Obama’s speech in which he chastised Israel and indirectly demanded more Israeli concessions to the Palestinians. Not to achieve a peace settlement mind you, but concessions that would presumably get the Palestinians back to just negotiating.
Anyway, I assume the discussion went something like the Secretary of State Clinton stating that “the entire Arab world was in turmoil and the US had to do something”, or the National Security Advisor pointing out that “Libya is destroying itself, Egypt is on the verge of political breakdown, and Syria is massacring it’s citizens.”. I assumed that Barack Obama then replied that he heard what they were saying, and that “I now realize the seriousness of the situation, and I have decided to make a speech which would assess the problem and propose a solution.”
Of course everyone there in the Oval Office was anxious to hear what the Beloved Leader of the Free World Barack Obama had decided to propose that would help ally and perhaps even put an end to the violence, instability, and deterioration taking place in the Middle East Arab countries.
Barack Obama in his inimitable articulate style immediately gave them his brief and entirely expected response and told them that he would immediately suggest that “the United States hammer the stuffings out of Netanyahu and Israel.”
And that is what Obama did!