By Barry Rubin
Suddenly, after years of persistent failure, Fatah and Hamas–which means the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas–have signed a detailed reconciliation agreement.
Why now? It’s preparation for the UN and the claim that the PA is sole, legitimate representative of the Palestinians. In exchange for being able to claim it now rules both the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Fatah (PA) made huge concessions that it has always refused to give before.
Naturally, the accord will break down. Presumably after the PA gets a lot of support for being an independent country later this year and before projected Palestinian elections in 2012.
Why is Hamas going along with this? Because the deal gives it a lot, including a promise of elections in a year. Hamas won the last elections and presumably is confident–especially as it looks at electoral successes for Hizballah in Lebanon and probably soon for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt–that it will win again.
But there’s also another reason. Hamas is probably quite happy with the idea that many countries–and perhaps the UN–will recognize an independent Palestinian state unconditionally. In other words, there will be a widely, or internationally, accepted Palestine without the need to make peace with Israel. No concessions need be made. The Palestinians will get everything and give up nothing. They will not be bound in any way by border changes or security guarantees. The struggle to wipe Israel off the map can continue.
It’s Hamas’s dream come true.
Anyone who thinks this helps the peace process is deluded. Hamas will never accept any peace agreement with Israel and will radicalize Fatah’s negotiating position out of competition between the two rivals to prove their militancy. The race to commit the most bloody terrorist acts would also intensify.
Make no mistake. Whether or not this development has any direct effect on the ground, it’s another step toward the death of any real Israel-Palestinian peace process.
For a detailed account of the deal: http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=218098
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, and a featured columnist for PajamasMedia at http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center is http://www.gloria-center.org.
B. Rubin: “Make no mistake. Whether or not this development has any direct effect on the ground, it’s another step toward the death of any real Israel-Palestinian peace process. ”
Well, since there is no palestinian peaceprocess, why should they care? Lieberman has openly stated that he does not want any solution, and Nethanyahu has fought the Quartet tooth and nail. Settlers are increasing their price-tag actions with impunity, the IDF acting as support for lawless behaviour. I could go on and on. The US is obviously not a honest broker. So why exactly shouldnt the palestinians look for a new partner, Egypt (and by extension, Turkey)? If you are able to drop the “all-they-want-is-to-kill-jews” view of the palestinians and see them as humans, you got to admit its entirely rational.
Watch how fast this fizzles.
This is just a fig leaf. An agreement to reach an agreement to eventually have elections. So they are going to hold this up to the UN and claim they have a government now? Oh, yeah, might work.
There never was a ”peace process” – only a campaign to eliminate Israel.
Foolish Israelis wanted to believe otherwise, particularly our political elites. We have been negotiating with ourselves for 20 years, basically, in denial, making policy on the basis of wishful thinking, ignoring all evidence. Our crappy leadership, particularly those on the Left but also our phoney Right (Likud), has managed to turn victory, every opportunity, into defeat.
Hamas is going along with this because they fear being cut out of the process on the one hand and realize that if they are involved there will be no process since the U.S. will not accept Hamas at the bargaining table as they are presently constituted.
The real goal for Hamas is no peace since to have such a thing makes them irrelevant, consolidates Israel as a nation, and makes their civilian base forget “the struggle”.
For Hamas, the goal is not peace but struggle. Although Hamas is not an Islamic fundamentalist group in the true sense, they are still very much the children of their father and that father is Sayd Qutb. On a philosophical plane, they wish eternal war or at least what amounts to such since they realize their true long range goals are decades if not well over a hundred or even two hundred years away.
Hamas is already well accustomed to essentially living among the ruins as it were and wouldn’t mind pulling everyone down to that level. In Egypt, where there is at least hope of a better life, Hamas will have to somehow create chaos there but I have my doubts if the Egyptians are willing to live among the ruins of their own civilization for Palestinian Arabs or the Muslim Brotherhoods arcane and unrealistic goals.
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